ATL: IKE Discussion

[haml8]

Interesting point from Derek in his latest forecast in the TA forum.

"Once in the Gulf, environmental conditions are now looking somewhat hostile. WV and University of Wisconsin satellite winds indicate that there is strong shear in the Gulf. SHIPS also diagnoses this."

This is the first time that I am hearing that the environment in the GOM is more hostile. Everything we have been hearing up until now has indicated that the conditions were very favorable.

Maybe Derek can chimie in and provide some more insight on the weakness and his thoughts on the NHC moving the track North. I respect his posts and opinion.

[Frank2]

ajc3,

During my time with the NWS the term "col" was used to desribe a neurtral area between systems, or, an area of constant air pressure, but, I don't believe it was ever used as an acronymn to desribe a cut-off low...

A col is weather's version of interstitial space...

[mattpetre]

Tiny bit OT, but could someone tell me the best place to get a decent anemometer or a weather station that includes windspeed for a relatively low price? I would really like to keep records of Ike at my house.

[Aristotle]

On the steering winds, here is a classic example of a stronger storm getting pulled more poleward. I attached the 940-949 mb storm pressure steering - as you can see, the weakness or COL is more pronouned between the bubble high in the western GOM and the atlantic ridge east of FL. Go to the steering for a storm at less than 940 mb, and that weakness is even larger with steering generally toward the north. You can also see that that the currents are very light which will also cause Ike to slow down.

Current Steering 950mb-969mb
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm4.html

940-949 mb steering
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm5.html

<940 mb steering
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm6.html

Ronjon,
That was very cool thanks for that I just learned a ton. SOOO what those maps demonstrate is that a stronger cane squeezes the center of the the 2 highs and is actually seperates the two points. Is that because the winds on the north side disrupt the flow of the highs?

[Category 5]

Tiny bit OT, but could someone tell me the best place to get a decent anemometer or a weather station that includes windspeed for a relatively low price? I would really like to keep records of Ike at my house.

http://www.ambientweather.com/

[KWT]

haml8, I wonder whether thats what the NHC are latching onto with regards to shear in the gulf?

That would be very good news though I'm not sure they look hostile to be honest:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html

[ROCK]

Looking at the NHC chart, the timing is definitely slower than the GFS. IMO it can't be both. If this does come in Saturday AM, or if it slows and comes in Saturday night or Sunday, it will be right of the current track.

Edited: right OF, not right ON!

Well it is a little slower though not by a huge deal, its probably at most about 12hrs slower then the GFS. Gives Ike probably around 84hrs to strengthen up as much as it wants to in very condusive conditions, so it wouldn't be at all surprising if Ike ended up undergoing RI at one point when its in the gulf, esp when its crossing the warm eddies in the gulf.

The NHC doesn't believe now conditions will be ideal (shear) for intensification in the NW GOM per their 11am discussion.

He'll be a major ala Rita with big windfield upon landfall. If Ike can hold up to 30knts of shear in the open ALT, this GOM shear is a cake walk...

[CrazyC83]

One thing is for sure, Ike will certainly create more problems in an area already devastated by Gustav with the landfall in nearly the same place...

[HurricaneRobert]

Interesting point from Derek in his latest forecast in the TA forum.

"Once in the Gulf, environmental conditions are now looking somewhat hostile. WV and University of Wisconsin satellite winds indicate that there is strong shear in the Gulf. SHIPS also diagnoses this."

This is the first time that I am hearing that the environment in the GOM is more hostile. Everything we have been hearing up until now has indicated that the conditions were very favorable.

Maybe Derek can chimie in and provide some more insight on the weakness and his thoughts on the NHC moving the track North. I respect his posts and opinion.

Shear forecasts are really unreliable. I don't know if they corrected predicted the shear that weakened Gustav.

[haml8]

haml8, I wonder whether thats what the NHC are latching onto with regards to shear in the gulf?

That would be very good news though I'm not sure they look hostile to be honest:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html

Thats a good observation KWT.. Hopefully Derek, AFM or wxman57 can chime in on it..

[jlauderdal]

Here is a little excerpt from Jeff Masters latest blog:

"Oddly, these two farthest north models were the southernmost ones yesterday. Suffice to say, the crystal ball is still cloudy. The entire Texas and northernmost coast of Mexico are at risk from Ike."

Well Jeff...when everything else was north of you...and then they all shift south of you...it tends to work that way...

They didn't really move...everyone else did.

last weekend he made a case for it to hit florida, not hit florida and possibly go west and hit the gulf coast, hmmm, ok i guess central and south america were eliminated

[ROCK]

Here is a little excerpt from Jeff Masters latest blog:

"Oddly, these two farthest north models were the southernmost ones yesterday. Suffice to say, the crystal ball is still cloudy. The entire Texas and northernmost coast of Mexico are at risk from Ike."

Well Jeff...when everything else was north of you...and then they all shift south of you...it tends to work that way...

They didn't really move...everyone else did.

I have been wondering about Masters of late... few blogs ago he was on the LA,AL,MS wagon when all guidance was shifting west....

[gubyw1]

Ike looks much stronger now than 6 hrs ago despite being in the middle of Cuba, Sand Key buoy 127 nm from Ike reported continuous winds of 52 knots at 10:20 am and a gust to 56 kts. This thing is strong.

[cape_escape]

Artist and Des5 I'll reply to both of you. The answer is yes the storm would have pulled more N-NW and closer to the SW and west coast of FL in the eastern GOM - so if Ike had traveled through the straits he would have likely taken this path. Some of the models a few days ago showed this. However, it would've been temprorary as that weakness is supposed to fill in a couple of days.

The way I feel is I won't feel good untill Ike is out of my back yard!

I went through the archives graphincs of Charley,and I know there are different things in play here , but if you look at the graphics from charleys path for two updates Ike's coordinates are the same almost to the degree of what Charleys was, and I think ( prob way off!) it was an unexpected troph that picked him up and carried him into Punta Gorda.

I'm not saying Ike's going to do a right hook into Florida like Charley did, however, whose to tay there isn't a troph that could at least carry him in as far as the Panhandle?

Just for fun I took the liberty to compare the coordinates of Ike and Charley while over Cuba and heres what they are/were. I know Charley was moving N-NNW, and Ike's going W-NW...but still I thought it was interesting.

Charley- 9/12/04 11pm 22.2N 82.4 W moving nnw
Charley- 9/1304 5am 22.9N 82.9 W moving NNW
Charley- 9/1304 11 am 25.2N 82.8W moving N

Ike - 9/9/08 8am 22.4 N 82.4 W moving wnw
Ike- 9/9/08 11 am 22.6N 83.0 W moving w

See how they're almost the same....and with this storm, I won't trust anything until he's gone from here...lol

I am anything but educated in this area, I just found this intersting and thought I'd post on it.

[RioGrande]

Right now, people are definately talking about it, but for the better part it is still business as usual in the RGV. I would expect, if the track holds, we'll start our frantic runs to the pump and the grocery stores Thursday and then things will go crazy Friday when people get out of work.

As for the weather, it is mostly cloudy with scattered T-storms expected today and maybe tomorrow. Highs in the upper 80's, low 90's and very, very humid. Sky is very blue and there is a nice breeze blowing in.

We've all pretty much gotten over Dolly, infrastructure-wise with the only problems I've seen are most, if not all the drainage ditches being overgrown with vegetation, due mostly to the frequent rain we've have the last month of so. We are all still a little testy, since the Rio Grande River did not get as much rainfall as the some of the other areas, and everybodies main concern here is the possibility of it flooding.

In case anyone is interested, here's the link to a local weather station SkyCam. If I'm not mistaken, it should be in Weslaco along Expressway 83 near the Cameron County/Hidalgo County border.
http://www.newschannel5.tv/Weather/Skycam

I'll update if any changes and if work allows.

[KWT]

Actually there is some shear out there, though there is nothing above 20kts throughout much of the track...

However above Ike there is only 5-10kts of shear...I think Derek is overdoing the hostile side of things, doesn't look hostile, doesn't look ideal mind you with the dry air either...

[haml8]

Here is a little excerpt from Jeff Masters latest blog:

"Oddly, these two farthest north models were the southernmost ones yesterday. Suffice to say, the crystal ball is still cloudy. The entire Texas and northernmost coast of Mexico are at risk from Ike."

Well Jeff...when everything else was north of you...and then they all shift south of you...it tends to work that way...

They didn't really move...everyone else did.

I have been wondering about Masters of late... few blogs ago he was on the LA,AL,MS wagon when all guidance was shifting west....

Maybe the lack of sleep tracking all of the storms is getting to him and weatherunderground Even their model updates seem to take alot longer latley.

[Nederlander]

One thing is for sure, Ike will certainly create more problems in an area already devastated by Gustav with the landfall in nearly the same place...

I think you mean Dolly....

[KWT]

Nederlander, I think Crazy means in terms of Cuban landfall, Ike has hit near enough the same spot as Gustav did just under 2 weeks ago...

[jasons2k]

Guys, can we please put the COL discussion to rest or take it to another thead.

I think we all know what AFM meant. There is a weakness there. It may cause Ike to make a temporary jog NW. Then it will close.