ATL: IKE Discussion

[Air Force Met]

GFS has shifted north apparently....

(i know its not the model forum)

Shifted about 200 miles NE from 00z last night. Brings it in near Pt Aransas...

I'm SHOCKED...SHOCKED I tell you. /sarcasm

Remember you heard it hear first.

[Aristotle]

GFS has shifted north apparently....

(i know its not the model forum)

Shifted about 200 miles NE from 00z last night. Brings it in near Pt Aransas...

I'm SHOCKED...SHOCKED I tell you. /sarcasm

Remember you heard it hear first.

Can someone post the new gfs?

Thanks

[KWT]

Yeah everyone in the cone of uncertainty should now be preparing for a hurricane one category above that which is forecasted, so in this case everyone should be getting ready for a category-4 hurricane. I find that to be a wise bit of advice.

[haml8]

GFS has shifted north apparently....

(i know its not the model forum)

Shifted about 200 miles NE from 00z last night. Brings it in near Pt Aransas...

I'm SHOCKED...SHOCKED I tell you. /sarcasm

Remember you heard it hear first.

You called your shot AFM.. but will the ballpark hold it or will you touch'em all? I think you will touch'em all personally.Edit: But I hope your wrong... This would put Katy on the dirty side more so than a HOU/GLS hit... just being selfish

[cycloneye]

GFS has shifted north apparently....

(i know its not the model forum)

Shifted about 200 miles NE from 00z last night. Brings it in near Pt Aransas...

I'm SHOCKED...SHOCKED I tell you. /sarcasm

Remember you heard it hear first.

Can someone post the new gfs?

Thanks

GFS is posted at the models thread.

[wxman22]

Track shifted north...

[jwayne]

wonder when the se and central tx coastal evacs will kick in? gfs means serious business for both areas.

[KWT]

wxman22, yep indeed. From the sounds of the NHC forecast they are expecting some Gustav type weakening with Ike but who knows its too early to know...

Any shear across the gulf right now is at the upper levels, from what I remember its the mid level stuff that really hurts cyclones, upper still does but not to the same extent?

[KWT]

GFS is posted at the models thread.

Yep and the key thing to note is its shifting northwards as well, now some good agreement and the NHC track next advisory will probably comment on better agreement...unless the Euro hasn't finished shifting north yet

[jasons2k]

Yes, the GFS shifted north (Su-PRIZE su-PRIZE) and looky how fast it erodes the ridge. Ike better make that 84hr landfall mark (yeah right) or it's going to go even more north than what it currently shows (8-ball says "likely").

[Roxy]

Shifted about 200 miles NE from 00z last night. Brings it in near Pt Aransas...

I'm SHOCKED...SHOCKED I tell you. /sarcasm

Remember you heard it hear first.

I really want you to be wrong, but you did call this yesterday.

Why do my quotes keep coming up wrong??

[Tireman4]

GFS has shifted north apparently....

(i know its not the model forum)

Shifted about 200 miles NE from 00z last night. Brings it in near Pt Aransas...

I'm SHOCKED...SHOCKED I tell you. /sarcasm

Remember you heard it hear first.

Well you were right. Good job. Well...you are a meteorologist.....LOL....

[Sabanic]

This is what amazes me about Hurricane forecasting. The forecast has been calling for little sheer, and now that is changing. So much can change, and we probably haven't seen the whole story with Ike yet.

[KWT]

Yes, the GFS shifted north (Su-PRIZE su-PRIZE) and looky how fast it erodes the ridge. Ike better make that 84hr landfall mark (yeah right) or it's going to go even more north than what it currently shows (8-ball says "likely").

Well thats quite possible, the models are sometimes too far left then have to redjust back east again, it reminds me somewhat of what happened with Rita in that some models shifted south only for the ones that did go south to come back up again!

[Aristotle]

This is what amazes me about Hurricane forecasting. The forecast has been calling for little sheer, and now that is changing. So much can change, and we probably haven't seen the whole story with Ike yet.

And by 5pm it will be forecasted that the sheer isn't going to effect the storm nearly as much as they thought. Btw do i need to mention how much sheer was pummeling a Cat 4 Ike?

[dwg71]

radar shows west track, seems to be staying on the island longer than expected.

[haml8]

This is what amazes me about Hurricane forecasting. The forecast has been calling for little sheer, and now that is changing. So much can change, and we probably haven't seen the whole story with Ike yet.

We are on Chapter 25 of a 50 page book Some on here buy this Cliff notes and pass the test... Some read the whole book.. Up to you who or what you trust

[Txdivermom]

GFS has shifted north apparently....

(i know its not the model forum)

Shifted about 200 miles NE from 00z last night. Brings it in near Pt Aransas...

I'm SHOCKED...SHOCKED I tell you. /sarcasm

Remember you heard it hear first.

You called your shot AFM.. but will the ballpark hold it or will you touch'em all? I think you will touch'em all personally.Edit: But I hope your wrong... This would put Katy on the dirty side more so than a HOU/GLS hit... just being selfish

Yep, I'm not really happy with this (SHOCKING!) shift either, Gator, considering I'm just north of you in Cypress.

[weatherbud]

Hurricane Ike Down to CAT 1, A Look at Gulf Water Temps

Hurricane Ike is now down to a Category One with winds of 80mph. This is not a surprise at all at this point. Ike has been over land for almost 24 hours. It will remain in the upper tropical storm/lower hurricane stage for at least the next 24, maybe 48 hours. The bigger question is the shear, water vapor, weakness in the gulf ridge, gulf water loops and the amount of time Ike spends over Cuba.

[cycloneye]

This is what amazes me about Hurricane forecasting. The forecast has been calling for little sheer, and now that is changing. So much can change, and we probably haven't seen the whole story with Ike yet.

If Ike survived more than 40kts of shear in the Atlantic,why not survive again in the WGOM.