ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[HouTXmetro]

I'm thinking daytime heating mayaid in producing some heavy isolated T-storms.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Dolly needs to Hurry onshore because that Trough is really digging.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

learning so bare with me. why do you say dolly needs to hurry on shore?

I'm learning too. Could anyone explain how that trough will affect Dolly if it's digging in?

[wxmann_91]

Yeah, there will be no RI of Dolly. The upper air pattern is perfect but there's a substantial amount of mid and low level dry air around Dolly, as evidenced by the 12Z Brownsville and Corpus Christi soundings. Not to mention the low heat content. These two competing factors will likely allow Dolly to maintain steady-state from here on out.

[KWT]

Maybe CrazyC83 though with heat content going down plus probably some drier air getting dragged in by that time from land just to the west it may have a hard time getting much stronger by that time (probably 18hrs time) when Dmax occurs, still we will see I suppose. Still it does need to watch as it is a possiblity.
Should still see some steady strengthening though IMO upto the 75-85kts range which is going to be enough to cause some damage clearly.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Copied from recon thread....

URNT12 KNHC 221726
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042008
A. 22/17:06:10Z
B. 24 deg 14 min N
094 deg 47 min W
C. 700 mb 3007 m
D. 58 kt
E. 036 deg 28 nm
F. 111 deg 066 kt
G. 037 deg 037 nm
H. 990 mb
I. 11 C/ 3052 m
J. 13 C/ 3048 m
K. 7 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. 30
N. 12345/7
O. 0.02 / 4 nm
P. AF307 1604A DOLLY OB 04
MAX FL WIND 66 KT N QUAD 16:55:40 Z
UNABLE TO FIX SFC CENTER DUE TO UNDERCAST
;

Not a hurricane yet, but there is a closed eyewall. Both FL and SFMR support 60 kt.

[RL3AO]

[ColdFusion]

Dolly needs to Hurry onshore because that Trough is really digging.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

learning so bare with me. why do you say dolly needs to hurry on shore?

I'm learning too. Could anyone explain how that trough will affect Dolly if it's digging in?

It won't.

[KWT]

Looks like its getting close Ed just a little short of hurricane status, does support the 60kt estimate however.

[stevetampa33614]

That bouy just got whacked with a 40mph wind. And its about 80 miles northeast from the center. Gettin nasty out there

[KWT]

That radar image is showing some of the outer bands now ery close to hitting S.Texas, looking likely that the north eyewall will hit far south Texas, not great really!

I'm willing to bet that band behind the one currently heading may have TS force gusts in isolated spots, things will be going downhill from now on in N.Mexico and S.Texas.

[Pearl River]

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:
galvestontx13 wrote:
HouTXmetro wrote:
Dolly needs to Hurry onshore because that Trough is really digging.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html


learning so bare with me. why do you say dolly needs to hurry on shore?

I'm learning too. Could anyone explain how that trough will affect Dolly if it's digging in?

If the trough were to dig far enough south, it would have a tendency to pull Dolly further north.

[rockyman]

Because of the way the convection is wrapping the center, I am having a difficult time ascertaining exact motion. It looks like it is now WNW, maybe even a little North of WNW, but I wouldn't bet the mortage.


Hopefully pro mets with fancy tools can string recon centers together for recent speed/motion.

A. 22/1343Z
B. 23 DEG 51 MIN N
94 DEG 23 MIN W

A. 22/17:06:10Z
B. 24 deg 14 min N
094 deg 47 min W

A good bit further N than W

It those are "minutes"...then it's gone 23 minutes north and 24 minutes west

[stevetampa33614]

Its kinda hard to tell where dolly is heading. Im trusting the NHC tho. It did jog completely north about 25 miles the last 2 frames, the Center convection did anyway. But the general motion is still WNW

[Ed Mahmoud]

0.38ºN for 0.4ºW. Now, I forgot what a how a degree of longitude compares to a degree of latitude around 24ºN, it is 0.9something, but I'll boldy assert that the motion is a tad bit West of due Northwest, unless WxMan57 or AirForceMet, who seem to have software, want to correct me.

[cpdaman]

0.38ºN for 0.4ºW. Now, I forgot what a how a degree of longitude compares to a degree of latitude around 24ºN, it is 0.9something, but I'll boldy assert that the motion is a tad bit West of due Northwest, unless WxMan57 or AirForceMet, who seem to have software, want to correct me.

which would be a short term motion (3 hours) or so of technically NW, only a couple/few degrees south of 315.

[KWT]

Yeah Pearl River but the NHC track actually does hint at maybe a slightly more northerly track then what Dolly was doing about 12-18hrs ago.

rockyman, looks like thats a NW track, should bring the systems center close to the border but probably just south of the border.

[Pearl River]

KWT wrote

Yeah Pearl River but the NHC track actually does hint at maybe a slightly more northerly track then what Dolly was doing about 12-18hrs ago.



I 'm not discounting the NHC track. I was answering a question about what the trough could do, that was posed by a member.

[KWT]

Yeah I know Pearl river just adding that the NHC actually probably expects a slight northerly movement thanks to the feature you mention thats all.

[MGC]

After viewing the long range radar, and assuming Dolly is vertically stacked, motion appears to be to the NW on my computer. I would have thought that Dolly would have made hurricane by now but something is holding her back. Must be dry air since all other factors for intensification appear to be there. Still thinking of a landfall just north of Brownsville but now as a strong 1 or weak 2.....MGC

[Pearl River]

KWT, Thanks...Sorry