ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[KWT]

RL3AO, if thats the case then 320 would put this very close to the Texas/Mexico border I believe?
Still don't like how this is setting up, heading towards a pretty densely populated part of Texas, at least compared with whats to the north of that region anyway. Even a minimal cat-1 can cause some bad damage.

[wxmann_91]

LR radar from BRO showing some thunderstorms developing in the eyewall. Eye becoming more circular and reflectivities are increasing. 1815Z sat image should be interesting and should show the eyewall closing off some.

[bostonseminole]

well Recon should be ready for another pass soon so we will see

[MGC]

Dolly will make a run at cat 4 but come up way short. Kinda like me trying to compete in a foot race. I'd be luck to reach the finish line.....MGC

[Ed Mahmoud]

FWIW, posted on model page, UK Met says "Intense" just South of BRO


I have never known how the British system works, where 'strong' ends and 'intense' begins.

[RL3AO]

Looking at radar, this as slowed down dramatically (7 knots or so) and looks to be moving north of northwest.

[Sanibel]

North of trop points. Headed to Brownsville, maybe north.

Hurricane momentarily.



Disclaimer: Opinion of internet amateur. No association with Storm2K.

[dwg71]

Very little rain if any is making it on shore here in se texas...hopefully we can get a good soaking. doubt it though.

[KWT]

That does look like an eye on IR and if that is the eye then it was smaller then what it was before from recon obs tohugh the cloud tops from the eyewall may be making it look smaller i suppose have to see what the next pass of recon shows. If it can go NW then it may well become a US strike and if it can get to the north then thats the best thing for the people of far south Texas as it should hit fewer people, still long way to go and now we have to watch each wobble as they start to matter more and more!

I just hope it doesn't try and start to bomb out now so close to landfall they'd be no way of weakening it if its strengthening towards land, have to admit it looks like a hurricane now.

[Sanibel]

Radar at that distance can be misleading, but this looks like it is slowing enough to start wondering.

[Wx_Warrior]

Wandering about what?

[mutley]

Radar at that distance can be misleading, but this looks like it is slowing enough to start wondering.

That center feature, at whatever altitude it is, hasn't made any progress west in the last two hours.

[KWT]

The only thing is mutley is at sort of distance the radar may not be totally dpeendable. Still it may well have slowed down again or taking another little wobble about which needs to be watched closely by those in south Texas.

[kurtpage]

Pressure down to 988.0

184230 2414N 09450W 6962 03057 9880 +137 +060 228038 043 055 005 00

[jhamps10]

Once the western side fills in, lookout

wow, starting to get the stadium effect, and it's not totally filled in yet. with it clearly slowing down now, South texas better watch out, cause I really think this could ramp up to a cat 2 on us with little to no warning.

[CrazyC83]

Pressure down to 988.0

184230 2414N 09450W 6962 03057 9880 +137 +060 228038 043 055 005 00

That was with 55 kt SFMR and 43 kt FL so it is probably around 984-986.

[mutley]

The only thing is mutley is at sort of distance the radar may not be totally dpeendable. Still it may well have slowed down again or taking another little wobble about which needs to be watched closely by those in south Texas.

Oh, I agree. I know the limitations. I was just pointing out that until two hours ago, it (the radar center) was moving slowly but steadily NW.

[senorpepr]

I've added a few more charts focused on Tamaulipas and South Texas

[KWT]

Yep pressure may well be a little lower then what recon suggests. hurricanelandfall certainly does look pretty decent right now just that the western side is lacking just a little bit at the present movement, though whether or not mid level dry air will prevent that from happening is another matter, who knows but it does look like its strengthening.

[Red_Fish]

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

West-North-West by Radar IMHO

Not an official forecast by any means!