ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[galvestontx13]

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=BRO&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

West-North-West by Radar IMHO

Not an official forecast by any means!

I would say north of west

[RL3AO]

986mb with a 67kt FL and 56kt SMFR.

[Portastorm]

Looking at that particular loop ... I'd say north of northwest even!

Interesting, but given what some pro mets have said ... the radar can be deceiving.

[kurtpage]

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=BRO&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

West-North-West by Radar IMHO

Not an official forecast by any means!

If you look at that radar it is not west-north-west.....much closer to north-north-west

But once again, radar can be very deceiving!

[txwatcher91]

On the high resolution radar the center looks to be heading NNW currently. However, it could be an illusion since the storm is about 160 miles from radar.

[KWT]

I think motion around 305 right now, probably still WNW but not far from NW really. recon still has only found winds that support 60kts, will have to sampe the NE side to see if its now a hurricane.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Waves increasing 50nm SE of CRP

[hsvwx]

With the eye clearing out on visible imagery, it will be much easier to track exact movements of center of the storm. But with the eye clearing, the system is becoming vertically stacked, which would indicate that we should be able to follow movement with the long range Brownsville radar imagery. I agree with a previous poster that the motion on the radar imagery over the past hour or so has been much more north than west, and satellite imagery shows the center to the northeast of the NHC track position if it stays on its current course.

[MGC]

With Dolly having such a large circulation the CP will be lower than normal when it reaches hurricane intensity. Last VDM had a 30 mile wide eye.....same a Katrina......MGC

[Kludge]

Very little rain if any is making it on shore here in se texas...hopefully we can get a good soaking. doubt it though.

Man, it's like there's a barrier about 40 mi offshore that's killing off some very impressive rainfall. I thought sure this morning that we had a good general rainfall coming for SE TX.

[TexWx]

I had a nice downpour here in the Sagemont area about 30 min. ago

[Red_Fish]

Have family in Corpus ... if Dolly keeps drifting to North of North-West I will give them a heads-up. They live 5 miles from the coast, so I am concerned.

[Aric Dunn]

yeah long range is hinting at a more NNW motion but could be a wable

[jasons2k]

Definitely north of this morning's forecast points:

[hiflyer]

METAR KBRO 221753Z 02015G25KT 10SM SCT060 SCT075 30/23 A2984 RMK AO2
RAB22E47 SLP104 P0000 60000 T03000233 10322 20250 53002

METAR KBRO 221653Z 03015G21KT 10SM CLR 31/23 A2984 RMK AO2 SLP102
T03060233

METAR KBRO 221553Z 02010G18KT 10SM SCT030 BKN037 32/23 A2984 RMK AO2
SLP103 T03220228

METAR KBRO 221453Z 02010G18KT 10SM FEW017 SCT023 SCT029 31/24 A2984 RMK
AO2 SLP102 T03060239 50001

METAR KBRO 221353Z 36008KT 10SM CLR 28/25 A2984 RMK AO2 SLP104
T02780250

METAR KBRO 221253Z 34005KT 7SM CLR 26/24 A2984 RMK AO2 SLP102
T02610244

[KWT]

hsvwx, if that happens then we may well get a landfall in south Texas afterall but we will have to wait and see, as others have said this could just be a wobble but we wil lhave to see, once it gets closer to radar site we should get a better indication.

Still this system is certainly statrting to look better again and if it can head NW then that buys it another few hours over water.

[Aric Dunn]

Major hurricane is still very possible.. !!

[KWT]

Yeah jasons got to admit that does make it look like Dolly is to the north of the forecast points, not great news for Texas but it may yet stair step we have to wait and see. Also got some strong bands heading into N.Mexico.

Major status is looking unlikely IMO, not impossible but its not all that probable, hig hend cat-1 is quite probable though IMO with steady strengthening obvious at the moment.

[jabman98]

I had a nice downpour here in the Sagemont area about 30 min. ago

No rain here yet. I'm slightly north of downtown Houston. Lots of clouds to the south, but nothing but the occasional brisk breeze here.

A slight wobble this way or that way could make quite a difference for folks in S. TX.

[Aric Dunn]

Definitely north of this morning's forecast points:

I love Gr analyst.. check your long randge Base velocity.. the NW eye wall is makings its first appearance..