ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[txwatcher91]

and NHC advisory still expecting a possible hurricane before reaching Cuba.

Wxman what do you think about that? It's telling me this may be the worst we will see Fay and it must organize pretty fast over the next 12 hours or so.

Is there another stronger storm out there besides Fay that will hit Cuba as a hurricane? I think the plane will find a few areas of TS winds east of the center, enough to keep it a TS for now. If there are any 50 mph sustained winds they're only over a few square miles.

But the question is, do you see shear improving enough for it to become a hurricane prior to cuban landfall?

[gatorcane]

Wxman check out the 2pm EST advisory -- NHC still thinks it will ramp up and maybe be a hurricane before crossing Cuba.

So there are no other hurricanes they are talking about

[Dean4Storms]

HWRF, shift west........

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[HURAKAN]

If Fay wants to organize, then this is the time as the LLC is farther away from land.

[Jason_B]

She must be doing better than we think if her winds are still 50 mph.

I think 50mph is a very generous estimate.

[JonathanBelles]

Ive noticed today that there are no birds what so ever around. Thats a rarity, and its quiet with out them. The lizards, toads and even the cat havent changed attitudes.

[Brent]

This storm sure is annoying. Looked to be strengthening last night and turning right and now it looks to not be strengthening(and maybe even weakening) and flying west. Hmmmm...

But yeah, this is definitely not gonna be a hurricane anytime soon, 50 mph is too high IMO.

[wxman57]

One other thing to look at. Step back and look at the general motion of the squalls. And step back a bit farther and note the nw part of Fay over the FL Keys is taking the shape of a point toward about Key West. It's pointing where Fay will be tracking.

[gatorcane]

HWRF, shift west........

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

interesting that track would give Fay ample time to strengthen and put the Tampa area on the bad side of the system.

[RL3AO]

Interesting with the HWRF. Is this the first run with the synoptic data from the planes, or was it added at 0z?

[txwatcher91]

HWRF, shift west........

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

interesting that track would give Fay ample time to strengthen and put the Tampa area on the bad side of the system.

Also shows 946 mb, would be a high-end Cat 3 or low 4 if this verified

[Jason_B]

17mph? So she's picked up speed.

[tolakram]

17mph? So she's picked up speed.

yea, I was expecting a slower speed as she makes the turn. Hmmm.

[Dean4Storms]

GFDL now goes to Tampa........


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[gatorcane]

GFDL now goes to Tampa........


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

it looks to be a strong hurricane for Tampa just like what the HWRF thinks now....

albeit the HWRF is a little bit more west tracking just offshore the Clearwater area...

[Dean4Storms]

Interesting with the HWRF. Is this the first run with the synoptic data from the planes, or was it added at 0z?

I would imagine this would be the first runs with that data, it would make sense in that GFDL and HWRF and even GFS all went the same direction shifting westward.

[CrazyC83]

Current data supports 40 kt as the intensity.

[Texashawk]

I will say, Fay needs to make a hell of a right turn - fast - to verify the 11 AM NHC forecast.

[dizzyfish]

I forgot about the bugs and stuff. Hubby saw ants around the eaves by the front door this morning. I remember seeing that in 2004. I also had ants trying to get in the front door the other day. Strange.

No clues from Winnie yet. If there are any - it will be tomorrow.

edit - Winnie just went nuts for no apparent reason! We could be on to something here. lol

[gatorcane]

Indeed and she sure looks like she is getting away from the big mountains of Eastern Cuba now and over very warm SSTs. Now is really the time she needs to make her move if she indeed will become a hurricane before crossing over Western Cuba.

For this system => more west equals greater likelyhood of long-term intensification