ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[bob rulz]

Another special advisory/update coming soon? I think it's officially in RI now.

It already has been noted by NHC. First line of Disco:
GUSTAV HAS BEEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

Ah, I missed that. When the NHC says "rapidly intensifying" do they always mean by their official definition? Or are they just using it as a general term?

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

000
WTNT62 KNHC 300953
TCUAT2
HURRICANE GUSTAV TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
600 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008


DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
GUSTAV CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN AND NOW HAS MAXIMUM WINDS
NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES GUSTAV A
DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE
SCALE...THE SECOND MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE 2008 ATLANTIC HURRICANE
SEASON.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA

[RL3AO]

URNT12 KNHC 300953
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL072008
A. 30/09:29:20Z
B. 20 deg 13 min N
081 deg 21 min W
C. 700 mb 2768 m
D. 79 kt
E. 186 deg 13 nm
F. 307 deg 087 kt
G. 192 deg 015 nm
H. 959 mb
I. 11 C/ 3049 m
J. 17 C/ 3049 m
K. 12 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C15
N. 12345/7
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF302 1307A GUSTAV OB 20
MAX FL TEMP 18 C, 171 / 9NM
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 112 KT NE QUAD 0937Z
STRONG CONVECTION ON N SEMCIRCLE...LOT OF LTNG

Pressure is down 6 millibars in 1 hr 48 min (3.33 mb/hr) and down 10 millibars 3hr 28 min (2.88 mb/hr). Both meet the definition of explosive deepening.

The eye has also shruk from 30 nmi to 15 nmi.

[superfly]

The eye has tightened to 15 nmi from 30 nmi just a few hours earlier.

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Yeah to bad this mission is most likely just about over! When the next flight?

[mpic]

Is there a diagram anywhere that will show wind speeds on the edge of the cone compared to the strength at impact? Or is there a formula to help figure it out?

[RL3AO]

Yeah to bad this mission is most likely just about over! When the next flight?

Its already there.

[Cyclenall]

092300 2020N 08110W 6963 02791 9547 +181 +120 116024 026 028 005 00

955 mb extrapolated.

I knew it would come to this. This is not as shocking since Gustav has been one of those storms to just blow up whenever possible. However, a 10 mb pressure drop in that short amount of time is staggering.

Thanks for the information on Hot Towers.

GUSTAV HAS BEEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT AN EYE IS BECOMING VISIBLE AND DEEP
CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE EYE IS NOW VERY INTENSE. THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS DOWN TO 965 MB...A DROP OF ABOUT 24 MB IN 24 HOURS. THE
MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS REPORTED BY THE AIR FORCE CREW WERE 100
KT AROUND 6Z... CORRESPONDING TO ABOUT 90 KT AT THE SURFACE.
HOWEVER THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE...THUS
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED CONSERVATIVELY TO 95 KT.

For some reason, this reminds me of Hurricane Wilma (not comparing it to the storm, the discussion sounds alike). The line "conservatively to 95 knots" was the same with Wilma.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I predict that the plane will find 115 knot flight level winds in the northeast quad. 103 knots and 953 millibars exp has just been found.

This thing looks to be heading for cat4.

[funster]

Wow. This is amazing. Gustav is also looking a lot bigger. This could be terrible for some locations in the GOM.

[drezee]

Awww...the fist theory wins again...I will post data in a few

[dwg71]

distance between last two vdm

20 minutes north, 17 west. Just slightly above NW. It appears to be going a bit more north the last few hours.

[mpic]

Channel 13 Houston just said cat 3 at landfall between Hou and NO. predicting heavy rains for Houston.

[TideJoe]

distance between last two vdm

20 minutes north, 17 west. Just slightly above NW. It appears to be going a bit more north the last few hours.

All the difference between a 310 track and a 315 track could be the difference in Gus going from an unpopulated area to a VERY populated area.

[TampaFl]

Gustav's eye now showing up on Key West Radar couresty SFWMD:

http://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page?_pageid=3194,21328260,3194_21169358:3194_21178594:3194_21198375:3194_21198383&_dad=portal&_schema=PORTAL

From Weatherunderground:

http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=6&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=BYX&type=N0Z&showstorms=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000&centerx=400&centery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=1

I know the radar is far, but does it appear to be moving more nw/nnw off the forecast track depicted on radar on the first link? Thoughts/comments welcomed.


Robert

[dwg71]

yeah a 315 to 325 heading would be disasterous for NOLA.

[dwg71]

tampa its hard to argue with that. nhc has it going south of isle of youth. if current heading of the past couple of hours continues it will miss it north. have to wait to see how large if any, a deviation it is.

[Sanibel]

YAWN....

I'm still asleep. Had to turn on computer after morning relief.


Gus is obviously right of track. This is the rightward tendency I warned of last night for N.O. However, the long term synoptic may make this irrelevant with a west turn preshore in the Gulf. Should hit Juventude on the NE edge.

[UKane]

second major hurricane of the season (=

May God be with you those in cuba

[Pearl River]

Cuba radar:

http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=PLANTILLAS&TB1=RADAR&TB2=../Radar/02I.Juventud/pdeMAXw01a.gif