ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[Brent]

Definitely running north of the track but I *think* it's just a wobble. Regardless this definitely looks like a Texas and not Mexico landfall.

Concerned about rapid intensification tonight.

[AMeyerRN]

I am sitting here and watching the winds pick up and spotty rain, not to mention the sky looking dark to the southeast (I work in a 5 story buidling so I can see above all the trees!) Amazing that we could get even a small visit from Dolly! Just amazing, that we could have affects from that distance! Haven't been able to monitor today as much, so, the change from last night is quite noticeable.

RW

i'm just east of B.R. - winds picking up and clouds rolling in - no rain yet.

[KWT]

Yeah its quite possible that this system is stair-steepping. Stil las gatorcane it would have to swing nearly due west from now to hit the next forecasted point and every little bit further north brings more of south Texas into the game.
If the motion stays for another few hours then things get really interesting, 340 is pretty far northerly really!

[RL3AO]

This shows the difference between radar and recon.

The red dot is the 1845 VDM recon position next to the 1847 radar image.

[gatorcane]

Yeah its quite possible that this system is stair-steepping. Stil las gatorcane it would have to swing nearly due west from now to hit the next forecasted point and every little bit further north brings more of south Texas into the game.
If the motion stays for another few hours then things get really interesting, 340 is pretty far northerly really!

Keep in mind though she is well within the cone of uncertainty so there should be no surprise here about this apparent N wobble.

[hiflyer]

How far offshore would the tropical storm gusts be right now?
I guess we may see the first TS gusts within the next 12hrs esp if it does strengthen quite a bit.

rough guess the TS winds should be in the bands about 80 miles SE of Brownsville.....maybe just before Midnight could be a fair guess....I guess...grin.

[KWT]

RL3AO, the surface and mid level center are stil lnot stacked up totally, about a 10Nm difference!
May also make it seem like its tracking further to the north than it actually is.

Brent, Texas landfall is certainly quite possible, though not sure about RI unless that gets better stacked again.

Aric, yeah it does do a good job through this afternoon, nice simulation of those storms heading towards LA as well.

[JPmia]

I am sitting here and watching the winds pick up and spotty rain, not to mention the sky looking dark to the southeast (I work in a 5 story buidling so I can see above all the trees!) Amazing that we could get even a small visit from Dolly! Just amazing, that we could have affects from that distance! Haven't been able to monitor today as much, so, the change from last night is quite noticeable.

RW

i'm just east of B.R. - winds picking up and clouds rolling in - no rain yet.

Welcome to the board! Get ready for a good ride and hunker down!

[Aric Dunn]

This shows the difference between radar and recon.

The red dot is the 1845 VDM recon position next to the 1847 radar image.

you have GR obviosly ... it paints a different picture now than when you save that image ??? the center is much smaller than what you thought .. recon postion now is right in line witht the center that is now visible on radar..

[KWT]

Indeed just shows the use of the cone gatorcane but sadly many people just pay attention to the line.

hiflyer, thanks so stil lgot a little while yet before we see conditions really go down hill for south Texas and northern Mexico.

[Ivanhater]

Evacuation in Brownsville

[gatorcane]

Indeed just shows the use of the cone gatorcane but sadly many people just pay attention to the line.

hiflyer, thanks so stil lgot a little while yet before we see conditions really go down hill for south Texas and northern Mexico.

Well again the NHC has stressed the cone numerous times during their discussions for Dolly and this is why.

[KWT]

Looks like people there are taking this pretty seriously Ivanhater, not sure it would be wise to leave now though and as long as it doesn't totally bomb may be just best to ride out the storm and stay in a safe place in the home.

[gatorcane]

Latest frame showing the eye filling in again --- and movement nearly stationary, maybe a slow NW drift around 340. She may be trying to make that west bend at the moment.

[93superstorm]

Wow, its starting get some even deeper convection wrapping around.

[hsvwx]

Indeed just shows the use of the cone gatorcane but sadly many people just pay attention to the line.

hiflyer, thanks so stil lgot a little while yet before we see conditions really go down hill for south Texas and northern Mexico.

I actually really dislike the line...I think they should just go with a cone of uncertainty, so people in that whole cone will pay attention and take the proper precautions to safe life and property.

[RL3AO]

Indeed just shows the use of the cone gatorcane but sadly many people just pay attention to the line.

hiflyer, thanks so stil lgot a little while yet before we see conditions really go down hill for south Texas and northern Mexico.

I actually really dislike the line...I think they should just go with a cone of uncertainty, so people in that whole cone will pay attention and take the proper precautions to safe life and property.

I agree 110%.

[Squarethecircle]

The eye is not filling in in that image. It seems more that the eyewall is wrapping around. A central eye with a small weak area curving away from it is common in forming hurricanes.

[KWT]

Yep Gatorcane stronger convection now starting to work its way round on the southern side as well, only a matter of time before the eyewall finally closes up. IR also showing some more intense convection starting to come back in the eyewall on the western side.
Al lthis is a sign of strengthening occuring with Dolly, I think its only a matter of time before we have hurricane Dolly I'd have thought given the structure continues to improve.

[HouTXmetro]

Latest frame showing the eye filling in again --- and movement nearly stationary, maybe a slow NW drift around 340. She may be trying to make that west bend at the moment.

Better stationary than NNW. Now it's time for the High to Fill in and push this baby into MX!