ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[ExBailbonds]

Ok here is some clarifacation on schools in miami-dade as of now schools are open. The miami mayor has sugested they be closed on monday and maybe tuesday however the school board itself has not made a decision.

Edit!!!
Cancel that It's official school is canceled for monday!!!!

[Praxus]

Latest models looking worrisome for Tampa

[ekal]

Ok here is some clarifacation on schools in miami-dade as of now schools are open. The miami mayor has sugested they be closed on monday and maybe tuesday however the school board itself has not made a decision.

Interesting information there. The media does not have the story straight, apparently.

[KWT]

Gatorcane, still to the east of the center though and thus still showing a presentation of a sheared tropical storm, i'd be much more interested if convection blew up over thje center rather then to the east...but at least the constant development of deep convection may allow some slight strengthening its hard to say with the LLC semiexposed.

[Sanibel]

GFDL shifts 20 miles west of Sanibel. Watch NHC follow. Still the hard side with more over water time.

[MusicCityMan]

I love downtown Tampa.. I'd hate to see if it gets flooded real bad by storm surge.. since the bay and Garrison channel are right next to the city

[ExBailbonds]

ExBailbonds wrote:
Ok here is some clarifacation on schools in miami-dade as of now schools are open. The miami mayor has sugested they be closed on monday and maybe tuesday however the school board itself has not made a decision.


Interesting information there. The media does not have the story straight, apparently.

I edited my post above for it is closed on monday the school board just made it official. Tuesday is up in the air.

[deltadog03]

Fay is moving WNW right along the NHC forecast points, I don't see any additional W deviation yet.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

How, do you figure that? Its south of there 2pm coord...

[Vortex]

Yeah thats exactly right Sanibel, this won't strengthen much if at all whilst that ULL is present. The further west it can get now the better for strengthening as it will have longer to strengthen when the ULH does form in about 24-36hrs time.

once the system turns north tonight the modes shear from the ull will abate and fay will tak eon a more clasic look

[cheezyWXguy]

Fay is moving WNW right along the NHC forecast points, I don't see any additional W deviation yet.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

No, it actually appears to be possibly 10-15 miles south of the next point, possibly more depending on the miles scale of that map. The track should be nudged a bit westward, as the NHC track is on the extreme eastern side of guidance.

[KWT]

Yeah I think it will start to improve as well vortex once it does move more to the north.

Blown away, take a look at the higher resolution Sat imagery, the LLC clearly only tracking between 275-280 and recon suggests the same as well.

[RL3AO]

Latest models looking worrisome for Tampa

The model consensus went down the drain.

[SoupBone]

Fay is moving WNW right along the NHC forecast points, I don't see any additional W deviation yet.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

To my untrained noob eye she looks to be well south and even possibly slightly west of the NHC tropical points. But what do I know?

[Sanibel]

I'm pretty sure it won't do anything until it gets north of Cuba.

[johngaltfla]

Fay is moving WNW right along the NHC forecast points, I don't see any additional W deviation yet.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

How, do you figure that? Its south of there 2pm coord...

Spot on...pictures do not lie...

[KWT]

Yeah until it gets about 2-3 degrees north of the ULL this probably won't do a huge deal but as it is progged to weaken and also elongate with a ULH forming over the gulf its certainly going to be interesting to see what happens!

[Blown Away]

TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
500 AM EDT SUN AUG 17 2008

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/0900Z 19.7N 77.3W 45 KT
12HR VT 17/1800Z 20.7N 78.9W 50 KT
24HR VT 18/0600Z 22.2N 80.6W 55 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 18/1800Z 23.7N 81.6W 50 KT
48HR VT 19/0600Z 25.4N 82.1W 60 KT
72HR VT 20/0600Z 29.0N 82.5W 50 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 21/0600Z 32.0N 82.5W 35 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 22/0600Z 35.5N 82.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/RHOME

20.8N/79.8W at 2pm

[Just Joshing You]

This is going to be slightly off topic, but has anyone noticed that over the last few years, we've been pretty much able to stick the possibility of R.I on every storm of tropical origin? While it is possible for every storm, given the right ingredients, to undergo R.I, I can't remember a period of time where you could pretty much throw that out there as a possibility for every single Atlantic storm.

[Noles2006]

Latest models looking worrisome for Tampa

The model consensus went down the drain.

Yeah... that's kinda crazy! Definitely has our attention (again), lol.

[cpdaman]

little LLC appears to be imitating the sprinter from jamaica (bolt) and is grooving W/wnw right now past 80 W.....hmm