ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[hsvwx]

Based on the HCT assertion, I would say that rapid intensification would start after 2115Z (515pm Eastern). not much time to go before landfall, so probably likely to not go major with current speed.

Note: I believe that RI starts in less than 3 hours now...

Rapid intensification is defined as 42 mb in 24 hours or approximately 1.75 mb/hr. Supposing that Dolly spends another 16 or so hours over water, she would have an estimated pressure of about 960 mb at landfall. I don't know if she would be able to make that. Outflow is not great in all quadrants which may limit her strengthening. We all know what hurricanes can do though, especially those such as Charley in 2004. I still suspect a low-mid category 2 hurricane is possible IF Dolly can close off her circulation and become vertically stacked. Interesting 24 hours coming up for sure!

[Starburst]

Evacuation in Brownsville

HAHA... watch for pelicans when flashing. LOL.

that's funny...im sure there will be a couple of other 'things' flying tomorrow....I thought Texas used contraflow evacs.?

We do use contraflow for evacs. If I am not mistaken this picture is heading into Brownsville from Mexico. The line of traffic you see I believe is the border patrol crossing line, patrol checks for weapons drugs etc. or anything you need to check in with them before crossing. maybe someone from Brownsville can verify this.

[KWT]

As I've said already its really hard to know the direction at least on the Vis simply because the eyewall has been really developing deep convection recently and thats making the eye a little irregular at times in terms of shape. Certainly is taking on a good shape now though, will be very interesting to see what this does in the Dmax before landfall tomorrow.

hsvwx, if I had to place a most likely sort of windspeed that Dolly will come in at its between 80-90kts right now given the eyewall is wrapping up pretty neatly right now.

[Cyclenall]

The structure is very impressive for a strong TS, should be a hurricane any time now. When the wrap-around completes, how fast can the eye round out?

[hiflyer]

Lower left of the bridge picture has the word Isabella on a green sign......may be a hint??

[wx247]

Radisson Resort at S. Padre Island just had a wind gust of 38 mph with sustained winds at 16 mph... gusts here are almost to tropical storm force already!

[jasons2k]

We does use contraflow for evacs. If I am not mistaken this picture is heading into Brownsville from Mexico. The line of traffic you see I believe is the border patrol crossing line, patrol checks for weapons drugs etc. or anything you need to check in with them before crossing. maybe someone from Brownsville can verify this.

No, that is the South Padre Island/Port Isabel bridge.

And contraflow is only used on the major freeways out of Houston. It is an almost statewide coordinated effort - it is huge. We would need a major hurricane headed for Houston for contraflow to be initiated. This is nothing like that.

[jhamps10]

We does use contraflow for evacs. If I am not mistaken this picture is heading into Brownsville from Mexico. The line of traffic you see I believe is the border patrol crossing line, patrol checks for weapons drugs etc. or anything you need to check in with them before crossing. maybe someone from Brownsville can verify this.

No, that is the South Padre Island/Port Isabel bridge.

And contraflow is only used on the major freeways out of Houston. It is an almost statewide coordinated effort - it is huge. We would need a major hurricane headed for Houston for contraflow to be initiated. This is nothing like that.

WRONG! Contraflow is used out of Corpus Cristi and also one route out of the Rio Grande valley uses contraflow too when needed, but mainly for major hurricanes. or if they don't then txdot needs to take that info off their website.

[KWT]

Thats probably a good question Cyclenall, it seems to have almost totally wrapped around already from the looks of IR anyway.

wx247, yep thats very close to tropical storm strength,indeed just 1mph shy of that strength, impressive stuff given the center is still way put to sea.

[Starburst]

We does use contraflow for evacs. If I am not mistaken this picture is heading into Brownsville from Mexico. The line of traffic you see I believe is the border patrol crossing line, patrol checks for weapons drugs etc. or anything you need to check in with them before crossing. maybe someone from Brownsville can verify this.

No, that is the South Padre Island/Port Isabel bridge.

And contraflow is only used on the major freeways out of Houston. It is an almost statewide coordinated effort - it is huge. We would need a major hurricane headed for Houston for contraflow to be initiated. This is nothing like that.

Bingo!! I knew I had been on that very bridge before. I just could not decide if it was when we headed to Mexico, but that is it when we went to S. Padre (the good old Spring Break Party Days)

[RL3AO]

985mb and the MLC and LLC look stacked.

[jasons2k]

We does use contraflow for evacs. If I am not mistaken this picture is heading into Brownsville from Mexico. The line of traffic you see I believe is the border patrol crossing line, patrol checks for weapons drugs etc. or anything you need to check in with them before crossing. maybe someone from Brownsville can verify this.

No, that is the South Padre Island/Port Isabel bridge.

And contraflow is only used on the major freeways out of Houston. It is an almost statewide coordinated effort - it is huge. We would need a major hurricane headed for Houston for contraflow to be initiated. This is nothing like that.

WRONG! Contraflow is used out of Corpus Cristi and also one route out of the Rio Grande valley uses contraflow too when needed, but mainly for major hurricanes. or if they don't then txdot needs to take that info off their website.

Well. Gold Star for you then.

[artist]

anyone know what is going on with the satellite?
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

201700 2424N 09519W 6981 03013 9939 +076 +048 301059 065 065 029 00

65kt SFMR reading we could have Hurricane Dolly now!

[CrazyC83]

This may be a case that the VDM does NOT come back in time for the 4 pm advisory - in which case it would likely be held as a tropical storm then upgraded to a hurricane in a special advisory around 4:30 pm.

Also the NE quad needs to be surveyed - but if hurricane winds are found in the SW quad how could there not be any in the NE?

[drezee]

This is 65kts in the SW quad...would expect higher winds in the NE quad

[HURAKAN]

Yes, but now the pressure is 985 mb.

[hiflyer]

KBRO radar appears to be trying to represent a smaller central circulation forming over the past 30 mins in the NW corner of the original circulation....further the radar is showing substantial dense precip on the nw side....between the radar site and the circulation center which may be throwing the display off a bit due to clutter. Of course, due to distance, radar 'surface' is really about 15K at that range....either way the picture is quite interesting to watch develop.

[dixiebreeze]

22/1745 UTC 24.3N 94.9W T4.0/4.0 DOLLY

She looks like a 'cane to me.

[jhamps10]

we had 65kt SFMR this morning but NHC opted to go with 70mph...maybe they'll change their mind this time.

ahh it is awfually close to advisory time, but if Recon can get over to the NE side real quickly, we may see them go hurricane at 4, but more likely I smell a special advisory for hurricane naming.