ATL: IKE Discussion

[dwg71]

GFS run will be interesting, it should be available far enough out to see landfall by 5:15CST.

[KWT]

Yep the NHC didn't adjust that much despite the major models now being in good agreement on a track a little to the north of the NHC track...

Also they did indeed keep it at hurricane strength, though SFMR winds do support it the flight level winds really don't, so I suppose thats a split down the middle and at 65kts.

[tolakram]

Next stop?

[otowntiger]

For those of us inland but worried about Ike's effects, here's a cheery little tidbit I gleaned from the Eastern board.

"In August 1942, a major hurricane (125-130 mph) struck the Texas coast near Palacios moving northwest. Austin recorded a sustained wind of 74 mph as the hurricane passed nearby, with peak gusts estimated over 90 mph. Wind gusts in excess of hurricane force also occurred in the Austin area during the passage of hurricane Carla (September 1961)."

Great ... just great ...

It would be quite rare for that to happen, although I guess one certainly could argue that the track of this thing is quite rare. I don't see this storm strengthening that much. It may become a major before landfall, but my gut tells me it is not going to do it. In my opinion, I don't think Austin will see 90 mph winds from this. A lot of things would have to come together for that to happen making the odds very much against it. It would have to strengthen remarkably, it would have to track just right, it would have to be going pretty fast (so as not to deteriorate as quickly) for that kind of an event to ocurr. Not saying its impossible but certainly improbable. By the way those exact conditions did occur in Baton Rouge during Gustav, sustained winds in the 60's and 91 mph gusts, but that hadn't happened since Betsty in '65 and BR is at least 100 miles closer to the gulf than Austin.

[HouTXmetro]

NHC never does dramatic shifts in the track with one advisory. Did the 5pm move at all?

[Storm Contractor]

I'm in Missouri City and considering boarding up tonight. Anyone have any thoughts or advice on this? I don't live in a neighborhood with any trees (at least not more than 15ft high), but I worry about lawn furniture and such. How necessary is it? And will it hurt me still if I board up but none of my neighbors do? (i.e. Their roof winds up on my house kind of thing.) This is one of those neighborhoods where I can almost touch the neighbors house when I open the window. Any experienced advice is appreciated. I'm feeling lIKE IKE is headed close enough to Houston that we will feel some pretty strong effects.

Matt,

I can tell you that if you expect to be in hurricane force winds then you should at the very least board the "exposed" sides of the house. A shingle tab flying in 75 MPH winds WILL break glass and then you have the obvious repercussions from the wind and debris flying in that broken window. If you have a zero lot line setup were the neighbors are very close (within 10') the sides would be less likel;y to get damaged BUT my attitude would be if I felt like I needed to board one I would board them all! About the only thing worse than sleeping with no A/C is sleeping with no A/C and smelling wet, musty, carpet from a broken window. I will be leaving with my Emergency Response crews to head to the coast the day of landfall! Be Safe and Good Luck!

[KWT]

KWT,look at the winds picking up.

Max FL wind: 73 kt
Max SFMR wind: 82 kt

Ok that supports a hurricane there

Still think that SFMR are a little high but the winds are a little higher, where abouts was it found in the stronger convection?

Impressive given its been overland again and the pressure is very low still as well at 968mbs...

[gatorcane]

yikes this new NHC forecast certainly suggests the US is at great risk with Ike..and the talk about CAT 4 in their discussion is downright concerning

Good luck to all in his path....

[jinftl]

Boy oh boy....the landfall target may not have changed much but the angle of approach and movement once onshore sure did.....if we are thinking a due north move that opens up a whole lot of questions...what if the turn happens sooner, etc.

Welcome LA folks back to the party!

[KWT]

tolakram, wow that image really shows just how far Ike now has to track at its current foward speed, going to be a long week now I feel, esp for those in Texas.

[gboudx]

That track is why DFW NWS is suggesting flooding rains and tornado threat up here Sat-Sun.

[LizzardInFlorida]

Just got some good wind gusts and sudden rain band here in St. Pete. 20 mph ese.
Heat index dropped from 103 to 92 pretty quickly. it's been stifling hot here today.

[Stormcenter]

After reading their 5pm discussion why do I get the feeling the NHC has a pretty good handle on Ike now? I guess it's because they do.

[Shoshana]

Boy oh boy....the landfall target may not have changed much but the angle of approach and movement once onshore sure did.....if we are thinking a due north move that opens up a whole lot of questions...what if the turn happens sooner, etc.

Welcome LA folks back to the party!

If it actually follows this path it will be running right up Flash Flood Alley in the Hill Country ... eep

Hopefully it will not follow that exact path...

[KWT]

yikes this new NHC forecast certainly suggests the US is at great risk with Ike..and the talk about CAT 4 in their discussion is downright concerning

Good luck to all in his path....

Yep that track looks very bad for Texas, still a good 3-4 days away from landfall though so things can change. As for the cat-4 issue, I suspect they mentioned it because the conditions a loft right now far favorable...

That plus the fact the track takes it right over the warm eddy near 90W...that screams 4/5 to me!

[Stormcenter]

NHC never does dramatic shifts in the track with one advisory. Did the 5pm move at all?

I don't believe you will see much of one one going forward. It's unfortunately "looks" like Texas storm right now. IMO

[Sanibel]

Wide hurricane. Big gust blew the vase over on the table and trembled the house. 285 miles away.

[micktooth]

5pm is out

Wow they didn't adjust track much. Scientifically it may make sense to wait till 11pm advisory, but my intuition is that the population of Houston is going to need a good kick in the rear to take this storm seriously. Also, people not in EVAC zones need to be made aware that their attempts to flee could hurt or even kill others that do need to evacuate. I'll watch the news tonight and let you know if that is the sort of message being conveyed.

Let's not get too crazy here. Are you saying that if too many people evacuate there will be death and destruction on the highways? Oh the horror!

[KWT]

After reading their 5pm discussion why do I get the feeling the NHC has a pretty good handle on Ike now? I guess it's because they do.

Well the models have come into better agreement now so that may be part of the issue, still need to wait for the G-IV data to get into the models before feeling much more confident about the models.

[HURAKAN]

2.41 inches of rain in my house!!