ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Texashawk]

northerly turn beginning as we speak..

Hmm... GOES visible says something different.

[jasons2k]

Shot at 2008-08-17

[NEXRAD]

The apparent more westly track with the LLC seems to be a wobble from what I'm looking at. Watch the overall convective mass for a more definitive motion.

- Jay

[KWT]

Indeed I just caught the LLC briefly on the high resolution sat imagery in a gap in the convection, a little further east then I expected and thats reflected in the recon it seems.

I'd guess current motion is around 280 presently, last recon pass wasn't a very good pass through the lowest pressure.

[HURAKAN]

Closer to the Cuban coast. How close can they get?

[Dean4Storms]

Well, if you think you've got this thing pegged to any degree, look at the 12Z Euro. Takes Fay off the east coast of Florida, then brings it back into central Florida heading west toward the panhandle. shhheeeesh.

The Euro has been all over the place on this one so discard it altogether for now.

[cpdaman]

Indeed I just caught the LLC briefly on the high resolution sat imagery in a gap in the convection, a little further east then I expected and thats reflected in the recon it seems.

I'd guess current motion is around 280 presently, last recon pass wasn't a very good pass through the lowest pressure.

yup around 20.9/95 and 79.95/80

[Sanibel]

Dean: I think you are seeing that little swirl vortex out from under the convection. The main center is a barely visible dark hole traveling just left of NHC track in the same arc.

I have high confidence of a cyclone very near Sanibel tuesday because of this nearly perfect track prediction over the last 48 hours by NHC.

I expect hurricane.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

The apparent more westly track with the LLC seems to be a wobble from what I'm looking at. Watch the overall convective mass for a more definitive motion.

- Jay

Correct

[KWT]

Nexred, problem is the whole thing is getting sheared so not sure you can use the convective movement as a very good guide at the moment IMO.

[StormTracker]

There's something very strange & wrong with this storm if you ask me! Something tells me we're in for a little surprise!!!

[jaxfladude]

Closer to the Cuban coast. How close can they get?

But too close I think.....hopefully they will be allowed to stay to investigate Fay as long as possible fuel wise...

[Aric Dunn]

The apparent more westly track with the LLC seems to be a wobble from what I'm looking at. Watch the overall convective mass for a more definitive motion.

- Jay

i agree .,. but it is completly possible that the center is back tracking or wobbleing do to the convective blow up to its east
and maybe trying to tuck up under it.. that remains to be seen but thus far appears to be doing so.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Center appears to be just slightly south of where the NHC forecast had placed it.

[Vortex]

cabo cruz..nearly sustained at ts..


Cabo Cruz, Granma, Cuba (Airport)
Updated: 1 hr 26 min 53 sec ago
83 °F / 28 °C
Light Rain
Humidity: 80%
Dew Point: 78 °F / 26 °C
Wind: 38 mph / 61 km/h / from the ESE
Wind Gust: -
Pressure: 29.83 in / 1010 hPa (Falling)

[Aric Dunn]

Nexred, problem is the whole thing is getting sheared so not sure you can use the convective movement as a very good guide at the moment IMO.

its minimal.. and will decrease as that upper is finally moving WSW again

[NEXRAD]

Nexred, problem is the whole thing is getting sheared so not sure you can use the convective movement as a very good guide at the moment IMO.

Agreed - it's tricky, but estimating movement from the LLC alone is prone to wobbles and short-term trends. Matching the two together gives a pretty good sense of where Fay is presently moving. Also, keep watch on the cloud movements ahead of the storm at both surface and upper levels, this helps to reveal the present steering condition setup just ahead of the storm.

- Jay

[gatorcane]

Looks like some very inclement weather headed for Southern Florida for possibly later this evening....as Fay's influence nears.

Check out the deep convection blowup on the FL straits getting ready to move onshore the FL Keys:

[KWT]

Its certainly looking that way Sanibel but 20-30 miles further west will make a fair difference in terms of landfall in terms of exacts. Either way once it gets north of Cuba it should enter a steadily improving set-up.

[CronkPSU]

There's something very strange & wrong with this storm if you ask me! Something tells me we're in for a little surprise!!!

it's strange because it has near perfect conditions and hasn't strengthened, it's wrong because the thing can't get organzied

[Extremeweatherguy]

Looks like some very inclement weather headed for Southern Florida for possibly later this evening....as Fay's influence nears.

Check out the deep convection blowup on the FL straits getting ready to move onshore the FL Keys:

Yeah, you guys could be getting some nasty outer bands.