fasterdisaster wrote:tolakram, even with the shear it'd be difficult to say the conditions will be 'unfavorable'. Really they will only inhibit any rapid strengthening.
The NHC explicitly disagrees.
IKE MAINTAINED A FAIRLY WELL ORGANIZED CORE STRUCTURE DURING ITS
PASSAGE OVER WESTERN CUBA...ALTHOUGH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE
WARMED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE CENTER DURING THE LAST HOUR OR TWO. A
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS JUST BEGINNING ITS PATTERN TO DETERMINE
THE INTENSITY OF IKE...AND THEY HAVE ALREADY DETERMINED THAT THE
MINIMUM PRESSURE REMAINS LOW...968 MB. IN THE MEANTIME...THE
ADVISORY INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE 65 KT. REPORTS FROM THE
PLANE JUST IN SUGGEST THAT THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WIND IS 60 NM OR
LARGER. IT APPEARS THAT THE CORE IS INTACT ENOUGH TO TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF SOME VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO...INCLUDING SOME VERY DIFLUENT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE
NEXT 36 HOURS. IN ADDITION...THE FORECAST TRACK FOR IKE TAKES IT
NEAR OR OVER THREE WARM EDDIES...REGIONS OF ENHANCED OCEANIC HEAT
CONTENT. THE GFDL AND HWRF CONTINUE TO FORECAST IKE TO REACH
CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF...WHILE THE
SHIPS AND LGEM FAIL TO MAKE IKE A MAJOR HURRICANE. THE GFS AND
UKMET STILL SHOW AN UPPER-AIR PATTERN THAT LOOKS SLIGHTLY LESS
FAVORABLE IN THE WESTERN GULF...SO I HAVE LEVELLED OFF THE
INTENSITY FORECAST AFTER 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...IKE IS A LARGE
TROPICAL CYCLONE AND MAY BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN ITS FAVORABLE OUTFLOW
ACROSS THE GULF.
INITIAL 09/2100Z 22.9N 83.8W 65 KT
12HR VT 10/0600Z 23.5N 85.1W 70 KT
24HR VT 10/1800Z 24.3N 86.6W 90 KT
36HR VT 11/0600Z 24.9N 88.4W 100 KT
48HR VT 11/1800Z 25.3N 90.6W 105 KT
72HR VT 12/1800Z 26.5N 95.0W 100 KT
96HR VT 13/1800Z 29.5N 98.0W 60 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 14/1800Z 33.6N 98.0W 30 KT...INLAND
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/092051.shtml
The intensity forecast indicates a weakening trend prior to landfall.
