ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[boca]

Are their any television stations doing live streaming right now?

[galvestontx13]

I believe someone already posted the 00Z SPC WRF product, but it seems to have done a marvelous job with its forecast for the hurricane today, and has it moving at about 340 at 12Z tomorrow headed towards Corpus Christi. It also has an improving hurricane structure through the end of its run. It will certainly be interesting to see how this plays out. Anyone within NHCs cone should be just about finished making all the preparations to protect life and property. All one has to do is point at Hurricane Charley to see that conditions at landfall and change drastically even within a few hours! And we are still 16-20 hours away from landfall!

coming from a met thats scary.

[Tireman4]

Dont forget the serious erosion off the coast if it stalls.

[Ivanhater]

The thing with Dolly is she will be in a strengthening phase coming in and as we have seen with Humberto and Katrina(Florida landfall) will be dropping here winds to the surface...

[Scorpion]

Yea those mobile home parks near the beach won't stand a chance if it comes in as a strengthening 2

[KWT]

Yeah I'd like to see that as well Boca as I'm in the UK and don't have nearly quite the same TV options as some of you guys in the states have.

hsvwx, yeah its done a pretty decent job thus far, I think the NHC always say prepare for a category above, so in the as eof the offical NHC forecast, prepare for a high end cat-2 I think.

[HURAKAN]

Eye obscured as burst of convection takes over.

[Cat5x]

If it were to stall off the coast, I know that would give it more time to strengthen, but wouldn't it also cause upwelling and perhaps cause the opposite to happen?

would be 100x worse even with upwelling right off coast than it would be if the center was just 5 miles inland.

[hsvwx]

I will say though I am nowhere near the experts that those forecasters at NHC are, so please follow their forecasts. I just think this will go a bit further north than NHC has it going. IF, and that is a BIG IF, this thing goes along the path of the SPC WRF, it will have plenty of time over warm water to achieve category 2 strength. However, the water becomes more shallow there, so there is not as much oceanic heat content for the storm to feed on!

Here is a the SPC WRF:

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/cent4km/v2/

[HURAKAN]

Just 10 advisories (60 hours) to reach hurricane intensity. Not wasting time.

[KWT]

thats real worry Scorpion because as Ivanhater said a strengthing storm will drag its wind more effectivly down to the surface and as he said Humberto and Katrina showed what they can do...

Hurakan, yep center now clouded over thanks to new convective burst, I sduspect though won't be lon before the eye pops out again given the way its deepen and getting better organised.

[brunota2003]

People need to be preparing for a Category or two higher than currently forecast! If they say a Cat 1 for landfall, always prepare for a Category 2.

Intensity forecasts are not good a lot of the time, better to be safe than sorry.

[KWT]

Exactly brunota always prepare for a category above in case it comes in a little stronger then forecasted.

hsvwx, the warm waters are shallow but I think given it will only be over the water for a short amount of time before landfall it probably won't be much of a limiting factor unless this truely bombs close to historical porptions which at the moment isn't looking all that likely, even if it does deepen quite quickly.

[PhillyWX]

I believe someone already posted the 00Z SPC WRF product, but it seems to have done a marvelous job with its forecast for the hurricane today, and has it moving at about 340 at 12Z tomorrow headed towards Corpus Christi. It also has an improving hurricane structure through the end of its run. It will certainly be interesting to see how this plays out. Anyone within NHCs cone should be just about finished making all the preparations to protect life and property. All one has to do is point at Hurricane Charley to see that conditions at landfall and change drastically even within a few hours! And we are still 16-20 hours away from landfall!

coming from a met thats scary.

Not really -- it's realistic. Hurricanes can change intensity rapidly with little warning. It's one area the NHC struggles with in their forecasting from time to time -- even though as a whole they do a good job simply because intensity depends on so many factors that if one thing is out of whack it can change the whole structure of the cane and prevent strengthening or begin a weakening trend.

[sunnyday]

The meteorologist on Corpus tv just said Dolly will make landfall well south of Corpus and they there won't be a huge effect there, just some heavy rains.

[Aric Dunn]

ok back .. just got back from class..
not surprized.. its a hurricane obviously.. and wont be surprized to see become much stronger

[HURAKAN]

That can be a little misleading, sunnyday. We are still almost 24 hours from landfall and easily the storm could make landfall north of Brownsville. I think it's always better to prepare for the worse, of course, some people overdue it.

[kurtpage]

Here is a nice buoy...
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42002

[Aric Dunn]

radar structure is becoming increasingly ominous. lets hope this does not strengthen to the coast.. casue major hurricane is still very possible..

[sunnyday]

I thought it was a bit early, also.