ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Steve]

>>Thats 20 54', not 20.54, if you didn't know.

Yeah. I don't use the qualifiers of minutes and lines except when doing legal descriptions. Enough ''s, '"'s etc.

Back to Fay.

Steve

[cpdaman]

is it me or does it "look" like its starting to jump NNW already now --- probably just an illustion with the mid-level clouds covering the low-level center I guess..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

at the end i notice more pronounced N movement in clouds, also the last hour of wv shows the ULL seemingly causing this ?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html x out the first 5 or so hours to see this effect better

[RL3AO]

The NW track has commenced.

Don't be so sure. I'm very confident that first VDM was too far south.

[gatorcane]

I am also noticing a jog northward.

yeah and look at the wide-view...it seems like the whole system "jumps" North in the last frame.....and is slowing down.

Is the turn happening now?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[Vortex]

is it me or does it "look" like its starting to jump NNW already now --- probably just an illusion with the mid-level clouds covering the low-level center I guess..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

not an illusion the turn is commencing..

[deltadog03]

is it me or does it "look" like its starting to jump NNW already now --- probably just an illusion with the mid-level clouds covering the low-level center I guess..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

Thats the SAT. picture...I noticed the same thing...I was like what....the entire screen/system jumped...bad sat pic or 2...

[cycloneye]

The NW track has commenced.

Don't be so sure. I'm very confident that first VDM was too far south.

The next one will be very important to see the track.

[gatorcane]

If you are right tracks have to shift right a decent amount. Surely its not going north is it?

Note: even if models shift right...Fay would be within the NHC cone just more on the right side...

As Luis indicates, lets look at the next point -- it should tell more.

[Noles2006]

The NW track has commenced.

Don't be so sure. I'm very confident that first VDM was too far south.

Yes, I seriously doubt this ugly thing dropped 3 MB that quickly...

LMAO, it is NOT moving NNW...

[txwatcher91]

I am also noticing a jog northward.

yeah and look at the wide-view...it seems like the whole system "jumps" North in the last frame.....and is slowing down.

Is the turn happening now?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

Is it me or does this show possible east Florida track?

[Noles2006]

I see no change in track in the last 45-60 minutes... still WNW.

[Shockwave]

From Sarasota County Government...

....At this time, a mandatory evacuation order is in place for all residents living in a mobile home. A voluntary evacuation is urged for all residents living in a low-lying area or on barrier islands. These evacuations may be upgraded Monday depending on storm conditions. Shelters will open after 5 p.m. Monday. Stay tuned to local media for the latest storm advisories. Currently, Sarasota County Schools will be open Monday, Aug. 18 along with all county and municipal offices. Continue to monitor local media and NOAA weather radio throughout today and tonight for the latest information.

http://www.scgov.net/stormcenter/stormcenterhome.asp

I would think with a mandatory evacuation (for some), schools would be closed? I guess they might have shelters opened up for the evacuation poeple who have no where to go.

Negative... schools are still open, see that link.

Sorry for confusion, but I meant since there is mandatory evacuations, shouldn't the schools be closed?

[Jason_B]

I am also noticing a jog northward.

yeah and look at the wide-view...it seems like the whole system "jumps" North in the last frame.....and is slowing down.

Is the turn happening now?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

That definitely looks like a NNW jump toward the end, I guess we'll know in a few hours whether that's an illusion or it is in fact changing direction.

[CrazyC83]

Probably just a wobble and/or the original 1006 missed the center. It doesn't look like a pattern...yet.

[gatorcane]

is it me or does it "look" like its starting to jump NNW already now --- probably just an illusion with the mid-level clouds covering the low-level center I guess..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

Thats the SAT. picture...I noticed the same thing...I was like what....the entire screen/system jumped...bad sat pic or 2...

Okay at least a pro met agrees..

[KWT]

Yeah the first recon fix was clearly too far south ,the winds only shifted about 90 degrees as well indicating they went to the south of the center, as does the fact it was a good 2-3mbs higher then the actual LLC.

I think 285 is a good guess right now, I do think its slowly turning more north though of course there are short term wobbles.

[storms in NC]

If you look at the whole picture and not just the floater you can see the northen turn is starting to take place. JMO

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

[srainhoutx]

I see no change in track in the last 45-60 minutes... still WNW.

Agreed. WNW continues...

[AdamFirst]

http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... AXw01a.gif

Pico San Juan radar has started to update again after a 2-hour lull...seems like it may be heading NW

[ConvergenceZone]

Fay will not be anything close to being a "major disaster" like the Florida Governor Charlie Crist said Sat. Fay will be just a little annoyance but nothing more than that.....
Do not overact and just lay back enjoy a little bitty T-Storm.....and wait for next time for a more real threat......Fay is just a joke of a tropical system......


The above statement is what I feel is the feeling right now of some people in the state of Fla. ...just my thoughts now.
I would watch Fay with a wary eye just in case Fay has a nasty surprise or two that she has yet to demonstrate......

jaxfladude, this is NOT a joke of a tropical storm. Sure it is sheared, but when it enters the GOM, has an anticyclone build, shear lessen, and southern inflow less disrupted, then I think you will see at least a Cat 1, while Cat 3 is also possible IMO.

While I think a strong cat 1 is NOT out of the question if it goes further west, I don't think there is ANY way it will be a cat 3...Like they said on the update in the early morning hours, the Gulf of mexico's conditions may be okay, but they AREN'T great...Sure it's like bathwater, but more ingredients are needed... If this was a hurricane now, I would say, perhaps a medium cat2 storm, but if it doesn't strengthen into a hurricane before it hits cuba, it will have to do ALL of it's strengthening in the gulf...