ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[KWT]

Possibly Aric though I tend to think that it would need a little more time to get that strong to be honest I see no reason why this can't become a category 2 in the next 18hrs uptill landfall.

Hurakan, yep still maybe a little early yet but the risk probably is slowly going down.

[Tireman4]

The meteorologist on Corpus tv just said Dolly will make landfall well south of Corpus and they there won't be a huge effect there, just some heavy rains.

Wow. Interesting.

[JonathanBelles]

Just remember, if this is strengthening at landfall...the tornado threat is raised.

<---I expect this to go up.

[loro-rojo]

radar structure is becoming increasingly ominous. lets hope this does not strengthen to the coast.. casue major hurricane is still very possible..

It bothers me when people use words like these. Anything is possible.. it is possible that this storm could be a category 5 within 1 hour, and it is also possible that this storm will dissipate before striking land.

We are not as concerned with what is possible, but with what is likely. Most metereologist and the NHC say that a category 3 hurricane is very unlikely. Statements like the one above are mis-leading, and can cause unwarranted fear and confusion.

[mattpetre]

The meteorologist on Corpus tv just said Dolly will make landfall well south of Corpus and they there won't be a huge effect there, just some heavy rains.

Honestly, I believe those sorts of statements to be much more irresponsible than overestimating the possible landfall zone or intensity for that matter (I'd still rather have people afraid and prepared than complacent and dead). Give people a chance to prepare. If you tell them it might be coming their way, the chances that they will at least pay attention are much greater. And in my opinion (and at least a few others) this might be going Corpus way. I could even see some of the strongest effects from this storm to the North of Corpus around Rockport if things don't change with the ridge as fast as expected.

Unproffesional and now nearly two weeks tired from Dolly/94L opinion...

[Aric Dunn]

Possibly Aric though I tend to think that it would need a little more time to get that strong to be honest I see no reason why this can't become a category 2 in the next 18hrs uptill landfall.

Hurakan, yep still maybe a little early yet but the risk probably is slowly going down.

im not kidding!!!!! this going to be a very serious problem ... i hope that the structure stays the same..
but its looking like its going to continue to stregthen.. i mean come on there is nothing inhibiting it right now..

[KWT]

Good point Fact there is certainly chance of weak tornadoes with this hurricane.

SFMR also just showed winds of 65kts in the NW quadrant as well ,now just waiting for the center pass.

[Smurfwicked]

The meteorologist on Corpus tv just said Dolly will make landfall well south of Corpus and they there won't be a huge effect there, just some heavy rains.

Wow. Interesting.

Yeah well IMO its a statement like that causes people not to take the warnings seriously and causes some to lack overall adequate preparedness.

If a local tv met said that here, that station would most likely lose lots of viewers! JMO!

[Aric Dunn]

latest recon pass pressure down to 983mb.. that 2mb in the last hour..

its not going to stop anytime soom

[artist]

Possibly Aric though I tend to think that it would need a little more time to get that strong to be honest I see no reason why this can't become a category 2 in the next 18hrs uptill landfall.

Hurakan, yep still maybe a little early yet but the risk probably is slowly going down.

I know Charley is the exception rather than the rule, but it can happen even right up until land fall.

[KWT]

Yeah i was about to say that as well Aric its certainly caught my attention, we've seen a constant 1.5-2mb drop in pressur eove rth elast 6hrs, i think if it carrie son like that we may well get into the definition of RI, IMO this is probably rapid strengthening we are seeing right now. I would have thought the winds are still in the process of catching up with the pressure.

Artist, its possible who knows it just depends on whatfactors are in play.

[deltadog03]

Well, it looks like the cannon has finally fired huh?

[Derek Ortt]

to be nit picky... SFMR found 66KT in the NW quad

[HURAKAN]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

If the current intensification continues, the NHC's top intensity of 90 mph could be reached at 11 PM tonight. This is becoming ever more serious.

[hiflyer]

Having early Katrina go thru here first I watched New Orleans tv streaming live as she approached there....and got the same sort of reporting....not coming here...not a major threat.....to the point that it felt like the NHC was the only one yelling...kicking...and screaming about getting folks moving.

Looked at the TV stations both at Brownsville and Corpus and did not find any streaming their on air live....out of Corpus on NBC you can get the last forecast but could not find a live continual feed......and to be honest found their respective websites not really up to date. Same with the official city of Brownsville site...no mention of the storm.

Sad.

[KWT]

Yeah true Derek, what do you think of that central pressure estimate of 983mbs?
Seems to be developing at quite a clip right now, I think those forecasts of cat-2 are looking pretty good bet now.
I sure hope we don't get totally caught out with this one if it does bomb!

[lrak]

I completely forgot about tornadoes, and coming from Odessa TX I've been down in the cellar many times. What are the chances up here in Corpus for tornadoes, does that graphic mean 5% chance? And do the most likely happen 20miles inland or along the coast?

Thanks

[Aric Dunn]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

If the current intensification continues, the NHC's top intensity of 90 mph could be reached at 11 PM tonight. This is becoming ever more serious.

very true..

since there is nothing inhibiting. it. there is no reason that RI will not occur.. at least on a modest scale..

[artist]

Having early Katrina go thru here first I watched New Orleans tv streaming live as she approached there....and got the same sort of reporting....not coming here...not a major threat.....to the point that it felt like the NHC was the only one yelling...kicking...and screaming about getting folks moving.

Looked at the TV stations both at Brownsville and Corpus and did not find any streaming their on air live....out of Corpus on NBC you can get the last forecast but could not find a live continual feed......and to be honest found their respective websites not really up to date. Same with the official city of Brownsville site...no mention of the storm.

Sad.

not only sad but a travesty in my opinion re the city's website, particularly.

[txwatcher91]

IMO once we see the eye clear out on IR then watch out because that is when it will likely RI if it does. Until then it will steadily strengthen about 1-2mb an hour. When Bertha cleared her eye she went from a Cat 1 to Cat 3 in 12 hours! From Weatherunderground.
07/07 9 GMT 19.30 -50.20 75 987 Category 1 Hurricane
07/07 15 GMT 19.60 -51.30 90 994 Category 1 Hurricane
07/07 15 GMT 19.60 -51.30 90 975 Category 1 Hurricane
07/07 21 GMT 20.10 -52.10 115 948 Category 3 Hurricane