ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Jason_B]

I see no change in track in the last 45-60 minutes... still WNW.

Agreed. WNW continues...

Not sure what you're looking at...a northerly jog is quite obvious.

[gatorcane]

here is another good shot..

It looks like FAy hits a wall south of Cuba deflecting her more North...very strange....maybe it will knock her out for good I hope:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[RL3AO]

Dropsonde confirms 1003mb.

[Shockwave]

is it me or does it "look" like its starting to jump NNW already now --- probably just an illusion with the mid-level clouds covering the low-level center I guess..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

Thats the SAT. picture...I noticed the same thing...I was like what....the entire screen/system jumped...bad sat pic or 2...

I saw that too. It looks like something caught it and just pushed it back northward, maybe (too me at least) it looked like it made a NE move. I hate you Fay! Make up your mind.

[Ivanhater]

I see no change in track in the last 45-60 minutes... still WNW.

Agreed. WNW continues...

Not sure what you're looking at...a northerly jog is quite obvious.

Really? I cant see it...look at the loop, everything jumps "back", bad images in the loop

[chris_fit]

Fay looks like she hit a wall or something! Big slow down last hour or so, might be the turn?

[robbielyn]

Nexred, problem is the whole thing is getting sheared so not sure you can use the convective movement as a very good guide at the moment IMO.

Agreed - it's tricky, but estimating movement from the LLC alone is prone to wobbles and short-term trends. Matching the two together gives a pretty good sense of where Fay is presently moving. Also, keep watch on the cloud movements ahead of the storm at both surface and upper levels, this helps to reveal the present steering condition setup just ahead of the storm.

- Jay

The last sentence you said Jay is backed up by what you saw with the bands of charlie when it was south of the keys. You predicted that turn before the nhc

[KWT]

Careful though because sheared systems are always tough to look using those lower resolution sat imagery, I want to see what recon shows before suggesting there is any wobble to the NW .

This sat loop still suggest a motion close to WNW:

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... ive_0.html

[gatorcane]

ALERT: Fay hits "wall" south of Cuba turning her north.

Her current state is:

[cpdaman]

yes that "jump" was a bad satelite shot, the whole atlantic did it lol anyway

look at the radar folks

http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... AXw01a.gif

looks better organized as well as back building, keep in mind this has been crippled by land to it's east and north for most of it's life so the center is still gaining "maturity" , perhaps it may set up further E, (and this is not -removed-!) just an observation.

[Noles2006]

I see no change in track in the last 45-60 minutes... still WNW.

Agreed. WNW continues...

Not sure what you're looking at...a northerly jog is quite obvious.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/
1km visible that updates every 5-10 minutes.

[NEXRAD]

The 1915Z frame is not aligned properly. There's a massive jump towards the north with every single cloud in the Atlantic according to that frame so the apparent northward "jump" is really partial image error. If this movement is true, then I'd suggest looking towards Antarctica to see what just hit the Earth.

- Jay

[funster]

Dropsonde confirms 1003mb.

Pressure drop confirms what I was saying earlier - Fay has been getting better organized.

[KWT]

Its not hit any wall ,the shear has caused convection to beocme more linear and LLC still seems to be going WNW, look at the high resolution sat loop I've just posted to see what I mean.

[gatorcane]

The 1915Z frame is not aligned properly. There's a massive jump towards the north with every single cloud in the Atlantic according to that frame so the apparent northward "jump" is really partial image error. If this movement is true, then I'd suggest looking towards Antarctica to see what just hit the Earth.

- Jay

I don't think so.

Look at the Atlantic wide view...I see nothing jumping north but Fay

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-vis.html

[Jason_B]

Its not hit any wall ,the shear has caused convection to beocme more linear and LLC still seems to be going WNW, look at the high resolution sat loop I've just posted to see what I mean.

Yep, you're right...still looks pretty much wnw.

[Ivanhater]

Not seeing any NW movement on radar either..im sure its coming, just not yet

[Frank P]

Simple to figure out motion in this case... for the time being, as long as it parallels the coast of Cuba its basically moving wnw... that is what the vis sat loops indicate at the moment... my untrained scientific opinion of course

[Extremeweatherguy]

Recon should be able to confirm whether or not this is moving WNW or NW pretty soon. Let's just wait and see what they find.

[Noles2006]

The 1915Z frame is not aligned properly. There's a massive jump towards the north with every single cloud in the Atlantic according to that frame so the apparent northward "jump" is really partial image error. If this movement is true, then I'd suggest looking towards Antarctica to see what just hit the Earth.

- Jay

LMAO, thank you for posting this... I wanted to say something about it, but I figured it would be obvious to everyone on here that it was an issue with that single satellite frame and not an incredible jump to the North.