ATL: IKE Discussion

[Senobia]

I haven't looked at the latest tracks..since about 2pm, if anything's changed since then.

However, I just wanted to tell the Beaumont area people that Bostwick said at 5pm - even on the Corpus track, the minimum...minimum we'd get here would be 70mph winds.

[jdjaguar]

not sure i like pro mets getting flippant.

how about a more reasoned response...does this not have potential for CAT 4 strike.....center of texas?

[Senobia]

Here's a little something to compare. This is Rita from 2005 - NOT IKE Notice how similar. Even the setup is similar. I still think this is like Rita II, just further down the coast this time.

That's eerie. Down to the straight line inland, too.

[Weatherfreak14]

Sure loooks like the convection on the eyewall is getting more intense by frame..

[fasterdisaster]

Just lacking really deep convection over the system right now but that will develop more and more as the system gets out into the Gulf and the inflow from Mexico reduces. As for the structure itself, I agree its really looking good, eyewall showing some small bursts of convection. Give it another 6-12hrs and by that time the system should be far enough away and primed for strengthening, prehaps rapid...

Wow...this is an incredible situation unfolding right now. The eye wall has reformed so quickly, and convection is already beginning to increase over the center of the storm. It will obviously continue to increase, as shown by the decrease in convection in the outer bands, and increase in convection occurring close to the center now. The thing that concerns me most about this storm is how ridiculously small the core of the storm is, despite the storm as a whole being massive. This suggests a potential for rapid strengthening and large size. Pretty much worst case scenario, considering that the small core will allow rapid strengthening, while the large size may prevent quick weakening seen in small storms.

yeah, its such an incredible intensification that we are seeing. The pressure is rising at a time of day when it should be falling

I'd like if people would try to be less snide.

[Sanibel]

Nice eye on radar. Old pros only need to take one look at this and have no more questions about rebounding.

[jinftl]

I would not want to be an official in New Orleans right now. There is no forecast calling for a landfall anywhere in SE LA, but seeing the track cone begin to encompass a chuck of SW LA because of what could be a system with 'right-turn risks' that bring him somewhat closer raises an eye-brow. We are already under the 72 hour window....and a turn north sooner would probably bring a sooner landfall than in texas because of less distance for ike to travel.

The scenario that could be stressful is what if landfall shifts to galveston at 11pm or 5am, then Port Arthur in next advisory and all of a sudden all of LA is in the cone. If the storm is as big in size and strength as expected, even a Rita-type track could cause surge flooding concerns in New Orleans. Actually, didn't some localized surge flooding occur in New Orleans from Rita?

By the time we may know if New Orleans has to worry, the time to get the city ready has shrunk from what they need.

[Aristotle]

It would be quite rare for that to happen, although I guess one certainly could argue that the track of this thing is quite rare. I don't see this storm strengthening that much. It may become a major before landfall, but my gut tells me it is not going to do it. In my opinion, I don't think Austin will see 90 mph winds from this. A lot of things would have to come together for that to happen making the odds very much against it. It would have to strengthen remarkably, it would have to track just right, it would have to be going pretty fast (so as not to deteriorate as quickly) for that kind of an event to ocurr. Not saying its impossible but certainly improbable. By the way those exact conditions did occur in Baton Rouge during Gustav, sustained winds in the 60's and 91 mph gusts, but that hadn't happened since Betsty in '65 and BR is at least 100 miles closer to the gulf than Austin.

Lol! I guess recent examples and the fact that this has been an abnormal year don't have any bearing on that happening. I'm no pro but at this point I would error on the side of over estimating as opposed to underestimating.

Btw the atmospheric conditions are beneficial to the development of a major. The northern turn (that happens just before landfall) will make the hurricane increase speed as it rounds the corner, and its gonna take 3 days over the loop current and then 82 degree water. Hmmm, nope your prolly right this is prolly a tropical storm at Galveston and a TD at Austin.

Guts are one thing but base your estimates on some of the facts.

[/quote]


Sometimes guts is all you have when prediciting the future, esp. when it comes to intensity forecasts for hurricanes. The NHC is very public about its inability to forecast intensity. All they can do is look at what is happening now and how that may affect a storm downstream a few days later. They did mention something about shear in the Gulf late in the forecast period so even if you want to go with facts, there you go. Also what I mentioned about Baton Rouge was quite factual, and there's no arguing the fact that LA has certainly had its share of storms to affect it and knowing that and understanding that the last time they got winds of hurricane force in Baton Rouge was over 40 years ago (before Gustav) and the fact that they are much closer to the gulf than Austin makes my presumption of Austin not getting getting winds over td/ts pretty viable. How about those facts?[/quote]

And I quote ( A Pro Met by the way)

Sobering words from Jeff Masters this afternoon...

There is a significant chance that Ike will be the worst hurricane to hit Texas in over 40 years. The latest run of the HWRF and GFDL models paint a realistic worst-case scenario for Texas. These models bring Ike to the coast as a Category 4 hurricane (which I give a 20% probability of happening). The HWRF predicts a 170-mile stretch of coast will receive hurricane force winds of 74 mph or greater. A 100-mile stretch of coast will receive winds of Category 3 strength and higher, 115 mph. Hurricane force winds will push inland up to 50 miles, along a 50-mile wide region where the eyewall makes landfall. A 100-mile stretch of Texas coast will receive a storm surge of 10-15 feet, with bays just to the right of where the eye makes landfall receiving a 20-25 foot storm surge. This is what Hurricane Carla of 1961 did to Texas. Carla was a Category 4 hurricane with 145 mph winds at landfall, and drove a 10 foot or higher storm surge to a 180-mile stretch of Texas coast. A maximum storm surge of 22 feet was recorded at Port Lavaca, Texas. Despite the fact that the center of Carla hit over 120 miles southwest of Houston, the hurricane drove a 15-foot storm surge into the bays along the south side of the city.

End Quote.

The shear your talking about is lite now and way to far away in the NW gulf to wonder what the effects it will be on what is likely to be a Major already.

2 - Ike was a Cat 4 in the Atl with 35 knts of shear

And D

and a higher speed Hurc winds in Austin is not that out of place

How bout that for facts Mr. Fancy Pants

[WmE]

one thing that argues against RI, and is why I do not expect it

the anti-cyclone is NOT centered over Ike. It is displaced a little to the east. I'd be surprised now if this goes above a cat 3

Could this create a little shear?

[Air Force Met]

If it's any consolation to folks on the upper TX coast, the last GFS run shifted South closer to Brownsville. Maybe this thing will end up going into the unpopulated Kennedy County.

You need to read my response to you on the models thread...or maybe you are choosing to ignore it. Here it is again...

No its not that big of a shift. You might want to look at something that is a little higher resolution. You also need to NOT look at the vort max...since the vort max isn't the center (no vorticity near the center).

12Z run brings it in near Rockport at 00z.

The 18z run brings it in near CRP at 06z. So...its slower and about 50 miles to the south.

It also initializes wrong. At 6 hrs...it has the center on the western tip of Cuba...near 22.5/84.5 moving west. Now...Ike might make a 60 mile jog to the SW over the next hour...but somehow I doubt it.

And above all that...its the GFS for cryin out loud. Take it with a grain of salt fo now. Its track record with Ike...even over the last 48 hrs...is HORRIBLE.

[Cape Verde]

We'll see....I think it will hit around Galveston. It's hard to tell, now, but, I'm thinking the ridge will weaken and it will begin a decent turn N/NW when it is S. of Louisiana--not Texas. We'll all watch and see. If I was in Texas I would be deep into plans and thoughts about an evacuation. This could easily be a Cat. 4 when it strikes land.

You are more than welcome to have it. In fact, Baton Rouge already has its oaks lying in the streets, so how couild Ike hurt?



The reality is that Houston hasn't had any major effects from a hurricane in about 25 years. That's a lot of tree growth to get blown around and a lot more pavement on the ground.

Not to mention a population which largely never experienced Alicia.

Houston architecture of homes is not conducive to hurricane preparation, either. Many homes, especially the more recent construction, are two story dwellings with cathedral ceilings. The average homeowner can not wrestle up plywood on a ladder to a height or 25 feet or more and install it without running a fairly significant risk of injury or death.

I won't. I boarded up for Andrew when I was living in Lafayette, but it wasn't the same style of house. I'm just making sure my insurance policy is current and I have emergency repair material handy.

[wxman57]

Well, take are of yourself WXMAN57, and hopefully they will give you a few days off after Ike strikes, being that there is nothing in the pipeline after Ike.....I'm sure you are looking forward to that...

Yeah, I'm looking forward to some days off to clear debris in the hot sun then sleep with no power (no AC) for a few nights. Looking forward to that.

If things begin to look like a landfall closer to Houston will you evacuate as well?

I'm on the rideout team. I'll be spending the night in a hotel next to our office Friday night so that I can get in there to relieve the night shift at 5:30am. Or I'll sleep in the office on an aero bed. Our house is in west Houston, so there's no need to evacuate.

[cheezyWXguy]

Wow...this is an incredible situation unfolding right now. The eye wall has reformed so quickly, and convection is already beginning to increase over the center of the storm. It will obviously continue to increase, as shown by the decrease in convection in the outer bands, and increase in convection occurring close to the center now. The thing that concerns me most about this storm is how ridiculously small the core of the storm is, despite the storm as a whole being massive. This suggests a potential for rapid strengthening and large size. Pretty much worst case scenario, considering that the small core will allow rapid strengthening, while the large size may prevent quick weakening seen in small storms.

yeah, its such an incredible intensification that we are seeing. The pressure is rising at a time of day when it should be falling

haha...good one. But no, Im not saying its intensifying now...its obvious that it isnt yet, it just came off of cuba a little while ago. But you must admit that the eyewall has come back quite well from before. Reds are beginning to show in the sw quad of the eyewall now. No strengthening yet, and whatever strengthening does occur over the next 12 hours should be slow, if at all. But after that you cant tell me that we wont see any type of significant strengthening in the next 3 days. I read your post about the anticyclone being displaced, but thats the difference between cat 3/4 and cat 4/5...is it not?

[baitism]

Unless sheer becomes more than forecasted, this will easily reach cat 3/4 by landfall. The eyewall is already reforming a few hours from leaving Cuba.

[ROCK]

If it's any consolation to folks on the upper TX coast, the last GFS run shifted South closer to Brownsville. Maybe this thing will end up going into the unpopulated Kennedy County.

You need to read my response to you on the models thread...or maybe you are choosing to ignore it. Here it is again...

No its not that big of a shift. You might want to look at something that is a little higher resolution. You also need to NOT look at the vort max...since the vort max isn't the center (no vorticity near the center).

12Z run brings it in near Rockport at 00z.

The 18z run brings it in near CRP at 06z. So...its slower and about 50 miles to the south.

It also initializes wrong. At 6 hrs...it has the center on the western tip of Cuba...near 22.5/84.5 moving west. Now...Ike might make a 60 mile jog to the SW over the next hour...but somehow I doubt it.

And above all that...its the GFS for cryin out loud. Take it with a grain of salt fo now. Its track record with Ike...even over the last 48 hrs...is HORRIBLE.

GFS has not been that great with Ike....its been following the ECM all over the GOM....

[tolakram]

URNT12 KNHC 092319
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092008
A. 09/23:02:30Z
B. 23 deg 01 min N
083 deg 52 min W
C. 700 mb 2823 m
D. 45 kt
E. 225 deg 69 nm
F. 307 deg 051 kt
G. 225 deg 074 nm
H. 969 mb
I. 10 C/ 3047 m
J. 13 C/ 3045 m
K. 13 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C12
N. 12345/7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF303 1509A IKE OB 14
MAX FL WIND 74 KT NE QUAD 20:39:30 Z

Ok, maybe red and bold is over dramatic ...

[Nederlander]

Unless sheer becomes more than forecasted, this will easily reach cat 3/4 by landfall. The eyewall is already reforming a few hours from leaving Cuba.

Still a lot of time folks... lets not create a monster out of a cat 1 hurricane just yet... lot of things can happen

[Texas Snowman]

As for the anti-cyclone not being centered over Ike, NHC doesn't seem to think that's too much of an issue per their last discussion:

IT APPEARS THAT THE CORE IS INTACT ENOUGH TO TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF SOME VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO...INCLUDING SOME VERY DIFLUENT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE
NEXT 36 HOURS.

[KWT]

yeah, its such an incredible intensification that we are seeing. The pressure is rising at a time of day when it should be falling

All it needs is some more deep convection and its going to strengthen pretty readily, maybe not RI but I think conditions are more then good enough for major hurricane status in less then 36hrs...

As for the anticyclone aloft, yeah true its a little displaced but there is still less then 5kts aloft in terms of shear and it seesm thus far that reigon of lower shear is keeping speed with Ike very well indeed...though I will admit Ike is a touch on the western side of that region.

Right now the enxt 12hrs is about re-establishing the deep convection within the system thats lacking, once thats a little healthier then things should slowly get going followed by prehaps more rapid strengthening in the central gulf (say west of 87 through to 91W)

[Derek Ortt]

Wow...this is an incredible situation unfolding right now. The eye wall has reformed so quickly, and convection is already beginning to increase over the center of the storm. It will obviously continue to increase, as shown by the decrease in convection in the outer bands, and increase in convection occurring close to the center now. The thing that concerns me most about this storm is how ridiculously small the core of the storm is, despite the storm as a whole being massive. This suggests a potential for rapid strengthening and large size. Pretty much worst case scenario, considering that the small core will allow rapid strengthening, while the large size may prevent quick weakening seen in small storms.

yeah, its such an incredible intensification that we are seeing. The pressure is rising at a time of day when it should be falling

haha...good one. But no, Im not saying its intensifying now...its obvious that it isnt yet, it just came off of cuba a little while ago. But you must admit that the eyewall has come back quite well from before. Reds are beginning to show in the sw quad of the eyewall now. No strengthening yet, and whatever strengthening does occur over the next 12 hours should be slow, if at all. But after that you cant tell me that we wont see any type of significant strengthening in the next 3 days. I read your post about the anticyclone being displaced, but thats the difference between cat 3/4 and cat 4/5...is it not?

I'd say its the difference between a 2/3 and a 4/5

The outflow pattern should be sufficient to support a storm of Rita's intensity at landfall. Just not Rita's peak 897mb intensity. Don't think we'll see the most intense GOM cane ever out of this one (for the record, I also did not expect to see that out of Rita)