ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[Cape Verde]

The forecast is for hurricane force winds to extend out only 30nm from the center at landfall. A typical size for hurricanes.

Is that 30 nm in each direction from the center, or 30 nm in total diameter?

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

I think in each direction from the center.

[wxman57]

The forecast is for hurricane force winds to extend out only 30nm from the center at landfall. A typical size for hurricanes.

Is that 30 nm in each direction from the center, or 30 nm in total diameter?

Check the last forecast - 30nm in each quadrant (a bit less to the SW). Think of Dolly as about 1/5 the size of Katrina as far as the hurricane force wind diameter.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 25.3N 96.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 26.0N 97.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 15SW 0NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 15NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 30NW.

[cpdaman]

while most people argue about N or S i'd like to ask if people think Dolly will or will not be West of her forecast postion of 96.4 (be it North or South) at 06Z. or 1 am CDT

in other words what are forecasters confidence that this will slow down or could this hit in the wee hours?

[wxman57]

while most people argue about N or S i'd like to ask if people think Dolly will or will not be West of her forecast postion of 96.4 (be it North or South) at 06Z. or 1 am CDT

in other words what are forecasters confidence that this will slow down or could this hit in the wee hours?

Well, it will hit in the wee hours. Tropical storm force winds will reach the coast in the next few hours. But it is slowing down - slowly. I calculate about 8 kts now.

[KWT]

Well we are seeing passes from both the recon and also NOAA plane, so far the recon plane that has been in there for the last 3-4hrs or so has found a central pressure of close to 982mbs so pressure is still faaling away steadily, now getting close to the 970's...
EVentually I think winds will pick up to match the decreasing pressure.

[Ivanhater]

Still moving NW to NNW looks like...

[txwatcher91]

Looking better and better on visible.

[wxman57]

Still moving NW to NNW looks like...

I'm still measuring 295-300 using 3-hr radar imagery in GARP. That's WNW-NW. It is a bit hard to see the exact center even with radar, though. Recon may not be fixing the exact same spot in the eye each time, so a 0.1 degree variance could make for a big difference when using these points to estimate a movement.

I'm estimating a center position of 25.0N/95.6W at 6:37PM CDT. Just about right on track. Inner part of the eye becoming more visible now on radr. It's toward the left side of the big "hole", I believe.

[Diva]

Took these pics earlier this afternoon of the small bands coming onshore near Orange, Texas. (Up on the TX/LA border) Very gusty winds today.
Sun is now shining and winds have died down a bit.

(Oh, that is a reflection in the second pic...I know...it looks like a funnel if you just glance quickly at it! lol And, yes, I took them as I was driving. :O)

[Texashawk]

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=BRO&product=N0Z&overlay=11111111&loop=yes

Maybe I'm really missing something, but this doesn't really seem to be making a beeline for Mexico/Brownsville. Could somebody please explain what I am obviously not seeing, because I see the top of a eye wall that is only about 20-30 miles south of Brownsville as it is, and over 130 miles offshore, and appearing to move pretty much N to NNW.

Please enlighten!!

[Ivanhater]

Still moving NW to NNW looks like...

I'm still measuring 295-300 using 3-hr radar imagery in GARP. That's WNW-NW. It is a bit hard to see the exact center even with radar, though. Recon may not be fixing the exact same spot in the eye each time, so a 0.1 degree variance could make for a big difference when using these points to estimate a movement.

Yeah, its hard to tell for sure, but I think if she continues the direction she is moving now, this is certainly a U.S landfall...North of Brownsville is my best bet...

[Cape Verde]

A 60 nm wide (plus whatever the eyewidth is) storm equivalent to a class F1 tornado is no small matter, and that's even not considering the potential for flooding.

[Normandy]

Very explosive convection now developing near the center of Dolly....Recon might find some pretty solid winds when it gets inside the center.

[paintplaye]

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=BRO&product=N0Z&overlay=11111111&loop=yes

Maybe I'm really missing something, but this doesn't really seem to be making a beeline for Mexico/Brownsville. Could somebody please explain what I am obviously not seeing, because I see the top of a eye wall that is only about 20-30 miles south of Brownsville as it is, and over 130 miles offshore, and appearing to move pretty much N to NNW.

Please enlighten!!

It does look that way doesn't it.

[wxman57]

Still moving NW to NNW looks like...

I'm still measuring 295-300 using 3-hr radar imagery in GARP. That's WNW-NW. It is a bit hard to see the exact center even with radar, though. Recon may not be fixing the exact same spot in the eye each time, so a 0.1 degree variance could make for a big difference when using these points to estimate a movement.

Yeah, its hard to tell for sure, but I think if she continues the direction she is moving now, this is certainly a U.S landfall...North of Brownsville is my best bet...

I'd go with a landfall about 10nm north of the TX border, I think. But the eye will be wobbling around as it moves inland. Just a matter of timing.

[Ivanhater]

I'd go with a landfall about 10nm north of the TX border, I think. But the eye will be wobbling around as it moves inland. Just a matter of timing.

Yeah..sounds about right..I remember watching Emily come in and she was bouncing all over the place, actually did a "microloop" on radar offshore...

[jasons2k]

I cant remember the member who always posts the radar images with where the center has gone on radar when a hurricane is approaching..would be nice to have that tonight

That was me, sorry I've been at work all day, and pretty busy too.

But here we are. I have centered the grid at the last NHC postion, It was also the center on radar at the time just to make sure we are comparing apples to apples:



Red circle shows radar center now. Pretty far north...

[Derek Ortt]

10 miles north of the border is many times better than 10 miles south

10 miles south puts the worst of the weather into the center of Matamoros and Brownsville

[Texashawk]

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=BRO&product=N0Z&overlay=11111111&loop=yes

Maybe I'm really missing something, but this doesn't really seem to be making a beeline for Mexico/Brownsville. Could somebody please explain what I am obviously not seeing, because I see the top of a eye wall that is only about 20-30 miles south of Brownsville as it is, and over 130 miles offshore, and appearing to move pretty much N to NNW.

Please enlighten!!

It does look that way doesn't it.

Yes, it does, at least to my untrained Mark I eyeball tracking system.