ATL: IKE Discussion

[SoupBone]

Might be related to colder tops wrapping the eye, but I see a NW movement.

I still smell Louisiana.

How does one smell LA?

I think the only area of Louisiana that truly has a "smell" is Bourbon street but I won't tell you what it smells like.

So guys any new pics of the weaknees over the pan handle? Is it beginning to fill in yet?

[Aristotle]

Wow...this is an incredible situation unfolding right now. The eye wall has reformed so quickly, and convection is already beginning to increase over the center of the storm. It will obviously continue to increase, as shown by the decrease in convection in the outer bands, and increase in convection occurring close to the center now. The thing that concerns me most about this storm is how ridiculously small the core of the storm is, despite the storm as a whole being massive. This suggests a potential for rapid strengthening and large size. Pretty much worst case scenario, considering that the small core will allow rapid strengthening, while the large size may prevent quick weakening seen in small storms.

yeah, its such an incredible intensification that we are seeing. The pressure is rising at a time of day when it should be falling

haha...good one. But no, Im not saying its intensifying now...its obvious that it isnt yet, it just came off of cuba a little while ago. But you must admit that the eyewall has come back quite well from before. Reds are beginning to show in the sw quad of the eyewall now. No strengthening yet, and whatever strengthening does occur over the next 12 hours should be slow, if at all. But after that you cant tell me that we wont see any type of significant strengthening in the next 3 days. I read your post about the anticyclone being displaced, but thats the difference between cat 3/4 and cat 4/5...is it not?

Lol,
First off, I can see no where....NO WHERE in chezywxguys post did he mention curretnt intensification. NO WHERE.

2nd - I've been on this board for about 2 weeks and am as probably as novice as one can get with regards to Met. However, I might ad....Knowing nothing I know a storms pressure does not have to be dropping for it to be in the process of intensification. I would assume intensification requires several stages of things to occur before the storm intensifies. It doesn't just magically do so. Ala Merlin.

3rd I'm thinking that comment was a bit off base for someone who can't claim to be right more than 50% of the time.

Just my 2 cents...But my 2 cents is most definitely intensifying~!

[dhweather]

On SAT....I would estimate a 325 movement?? about 12mph?

I'd wait one or two more frames before saying 325, I think its just a wobble to the right. On Key West radar, he's probably 290.

[tolakram]

Big storm

[Texas Snowman]

Ed Mahmoud wrote:
Might be related to colder tops wrapping the eye, but I see a NW movement.

I still smell Louisiana.

How does one smell LA?


Boiling crawfish my friend, boiling crawfish!

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Might be related to colder tops wrapping the eye, but I see a NW movement.

I still smell Louisiana.

But, can you smell what the ROCK is cookin', Ed??!!

I am so sorry dude, I absolutely coudn't help myself

~Nik

[Sean in New Orleans]

Might be related to colder tops wrapping the eye, but I see a NW movement.

I still smell Louisiana.

I think it's just a jog...overall it appears to be moving WNW to me, but, even if it goes NW remember it's supposed to head back West or WNW in 36 hours or so.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Might be related to colder tops wrapping the eye, but I see a NW movement.

I still smell Louisiana.

How does one smell LA?

I lived not far from the sewage treatment plant where Ambassador Caffery crosses the Vermillion River.


Needed a Northwest wind. Thankfully, not a big problem during the warm months.

[KWT]

Might be related to colder tops wrapping the eye, but I see a NW movement.

I still smell Louisiana.

Does look close to NW to me as well but probably just the eye wobbling about as deep convection once again develops in the eyewall.

[Ed Mahmoud]

On SAT....I would estimate a 325 movement?? about 12mph?

I have pro-met agreement, I might add...

[deltadog03]

On SAT....I would estimate a 325 movement?? about 12mph?

I'd wait one or two more frames before saying 325, I think its just a wobble to the right. On Key West radar, he's probably 290.

Oh, I agree....Radar is shooting at an angle too...plus its about 23k as well.

[dhweather]

On SAT....I would estimate a 325 movement?? about 12mph?

I'd wait one or two more frames before saying 325, I think its just a wobble to the right. On Key West radar, he's probably 290.

Oh, I agree....Radar is shooting at an angle too...plus its about 23k as well.

Isn't it interesting that the eye is clearing out on radar? I think the core must have left Cuba in excellent shape.

[Lowpressure]

Big storm

Agreed, that is a huge storm, about as big as any I remember. I am amazed at the appearance after dealing with Cuban terrain for almost two days.

[Dean4Storms]

NHC........WNW @ 10mph, this is slower then anticipated and could loom LARGE if it continues. I also detect a more NW motion right now.

[Aristotle]

Might be related to colder tops wrapping the eye, but I see a NW movement.

I still smell Louisiana.

How does one smell LA?

Not pleasantly that is for SURE!

[superfly]

NHC........WNW @ 10mph, this is slower then anticipated and could loom LARGE if it continues. I also detect a more NW motion right now.

No, it's not. 10 mph is exactly what it was forecasted to be by GFDL.

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 22.7 83.4 295./ 9.9
6 23.0 84.3 289./ 8.7
12 23.4 84.9 303./ 7.2
18 24.1 85.7 313./ 9.3
24 24.6 86.3 311./ 8.5
30 25.0 87.1 295./ 8.0
36 25.3 88.1 286./ 8.8
42 25.6 89.1 285./ 9.4
48 25.7 90.2 278./10.1

[PTrackerLA]

Lol Ed I know exactly what you're talking about, we used to smell it all the time. Thankfully they added a new part to it (not sure what it is) that was supposed to basically eliminate the smell and it has. It used to be terrible even driving by it .

Anyway, I sure hope you're wrong and I'm somewhat encouraged that this won't be creeping up further on the Texas coast based on the 18z models.

[theworld]

we have an eye...
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc08/ATL/09L.IKE/ir/geo/1km_bw/full/Latest.html

[HurricaneFreak]

Hmmm I think its going to strengthen at least to a minimal Cat. 3 and moving at NW then WNW towards Texas and could make landfall somewhere between Brownsville and Houston.LA may get some outer rain bands but nothing serious because High pressure will keep it south like it did with Florida.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

I've been keeping an eye on deltadog's thinly veiled posts all day and I think he's the one that's been smellin' somethin' so to speak. I think he just may be a meteorological bloodhound and he's had me intrigued all afternoon!

~Nik