ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Brent]

If this eventually becomes Fay,and based on some of the model forecasts,Florida could be in danger for the first time since 2004

Do Dennis, Katrina, Rita, and Wilma ring a bell?

[wxman57]

As I look at it this afternoon, I see a very broad circulation that's no better organized than earlier today, perhaps less organized. It appears to be opening up into a wave. The southwesterly winds aloft in its path are enhancing the convection near the wave axis. Development chances appear to be diminishing.

There's still a chance that the LLC might reorganize and it could become a TD or TS, but I'd say the chances of that are closer to 20% than the 50% on the NHC's 20-50% range.

[KWT]

Either way I don't think there is enough time, space or strength in the upper low to turn this before ridging builds back into the central/western Atlantic.

MW

Yep totally agree, if its up there it only raises the chance of a stronger system heading towards the US, because if it stays further south then Caribbean islands would take the main blow instead. Either way I think odds are this is going to cause worry for a lot of places...

[ConvergenceZone]

As I look at it this afternoon, I see a very broad circulation that's no better organized than earlier today, perhaps less organized. It appears to be opening up into a wave. The southwesterly winds aloft in its path are enhancing the convection near the wave axis. Development chances appear to be diminishing.

There's still a chance that the LLC might reorganize and it could become a TD or TS, but I'd say the chances of that are closer to 20% than the 50% on the NHC's 20-50% range.

wow, so all this excitement for nothing huh?? and when I mean excitement I don't mean HAPPY excitement, just excitement....Guess the convection has fooled us once again..

[blp]

What a difference a few hours makes, it is no surprise what has happened if you look at the convergence map. We now have increasing convergence just north of the low and good divergence over the whole system. The only negative is the shear MW mentioned.

[KWT]

The southwesterly winds aloft in its path are enhancing the convection near the wave axis. Development chances appear to be diminishing..

The thing is it looks far better in terms of convection and I can't agree it doesn't look as orgnaised as this morning, it looked real messy earlier IMO...indeed I don't think its actually had a decent LLC for a while now hence why I think its probably better then this morning.

I do think its still got a little way to get yet mind you, convection is only step 1.

[wxman57]

As I look at it this afternoon, I see a very broad circulation that's no better organized than earlier today, perhaps less organized. It appears to be opening up into a wave. The southwesterly winds aloft in its path are enhancing the convection near the wave axis. Development chances appear to be diminishing.

There's still a chance that the LLC might reorganize and it could become a TD or TS, but I'd say the chances of that are closer to 20% than the 50% on the NHC's 20-50% range.

wow, so all this excitement for nothing huh?? and when I mean excitement I don't mean HAPPY excitement, just excitement....Guess the convection has fooled us once again..

I think some are seeing what they want to see. Lots of people here want a storm badly. I'm not saying to ignore this system, just that a temporary burst of convection doesn't mean it's developing rapidly. The reason for the convective burst isn't a sudden change in organization. But if the convection persists in the same area for 12-24 hours then it could generate greater surface convergence and regenerate the LLC.

[Stormcenter]

If this eventually becomes Fay,and based on some of the model forecasts,Florida could be in danger for the first time since 2004

Do Dennis, Katrina, Rita, and Wilma ring a bell?

I think you should wait before making a bold statement like that until you have
something. It has a long long long way to go even if it survives and develops.

[Aquawind]

Looks like a possible reorganization north today.. but I agree it still does not look like a LLC has formed on the last visible shots. If anything it looks like it was trying on the exposed side east of the convection and looks like it is somewhat under the convection as the sun sets. Maybe tonight it will reform if the deep convection can persist. It look real pathetic earlier today.

[Stormcenter]

As I look at it this afternoon, I see a very broad circulation that's no better organized than earlier today, perhaps less organized. It appears to be opening up into a wave. The southwesterly winds aloft in its path are enhancing the convection near the wave axis. Development chances appear to be diminishing.

There's still a chance that the LLC might reorganize and it could become a TD or TS, but I'd say the chances of that are closer to 20% than the 50% on the NHC's 20-50% range.

wow, so all this excitement for nothing huh?? and when I mean excitement I don't mean HAPPY excitement, just excitement....Guess the convection has fooled us once again..

I think some are seeing what they want to see. Lots of people here want a storm badly. I'm not saying to ignore this system, just that a temporary burst of convection doesn't mean it's developing rapidly. The reason for the convective burst isn't a sudden change in organization. But if the convection persists in the same area for 12-24 hours then it could generate greater surface convergence and regenerate the LLC.

The voice of reason.

[Scorpion]

Wxman57, can you tell us why this isn't developing as expected? Conditions seem good for development.

[jhamps10]

As I look at it this afternoon, I see a very broad circulation that's no better organized than earlier today, perhaps less organized. It appears to be opening up into a wave. The southwesterly winds aloft in its path are enhancing the convection near the wave axis. Development chances appear to be diminishing.

There's still a chance that the LLC might reorganize and it could become a TD or TS, but I'd say the chances of that are closer to 20% than the 50% on the NHC's 20-50% range.

allow me to throw my challenge flag here if I may. take a look at this loop, the circulation is NOT opening up here, http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/sloop-rgb.html
it appears to be tightening up a wee bit. sorry but I have to hihgly disagree on development chances diminishing on this based on nothing more than the fact that we have convergence now, and that the shear appears to be lessening some.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Persistence is definitely the key. If the new convection can maintain itself overnight into tomorrow, then this could definitely try and get going. If the convection all goes poof though, then development, if any, will be very slow to occur. All in all, this is still probably the most impressive system out there at the moment, and definitely the one with the best chance at impacting land, so I am going to continue to monitor it closely.

[MWatkins]

Question for Mike Watkins. Just out of curiousity, in the 7-8 day time frame, what is your best estimate/average of reliable models consensus in defining the western periphery of the strong ridge forecast to build in north of 92L?

The problem is that far out, the models aren't very reliable even if they agree. There could be very small variations in the guidance that could make a difference between a move into the Gulf, or Florida, or the Carolinas or no landfall at all. For example, the models were forecasting we would have ridging back here in south Florida by the weekend...but we had westerly/sw flow all weekend long, and those models were only 24/48 hours old.

Right now, they look to hold the ridge for a while, but it's too far away to be reliable.

MW

[Ivanhater]

I think some are seeing what they want to see. Lots of people here want a storm badly. I'm not saying to ignore this system, just that a temporary burst of convection doesn't mean it's developing rapidly. The reason for the convective burst isn't a sudden change in organization. But if the convection persists in the same area for 12-24 hours then it could generate greater surface convergence and regenerate the LLC.

Your right wxman, I guess the NHC is seeing what they want when they say it has organized more..oh and I'm sure you will hold off a little longer to bring out bones like with 94L (Dolly)

[ConvergenceZone]

As I look at it this afternoon, I see a very broad circulation that's no better organized than earlier today, perhaps less organized. It appears to be opening up into a wave. The southwesterly winds aloft in its path are enhancing the convection near the wave axis. Development chances appear to be diminishing.

There's still a chance that the LLC might reorganize and it could become a TD or TS, but I'd say the chances of that are closer to 20% than the 50% on the NHC's 20-50% range.

wow, so all this excitement for nothing huh?? and when I mean excitement I don't mean HAPPY excitement, just excitement....Guess the convection has fooled us once again..

I think some are seeing what they want to see. Lots of people here want a storm badly. I'm not saying to ignore this system, just that a temporary burst of convection doesn't mean it's developing rapidly. The reason for the convective burst isn't a sudden change in organization. But if the convection persists in the same area for 12-24 hours then it could generate greater surface convergence and regenerate the LLC.

Okay thnaks...well, now that I know there's nothing to be excited about after all, and it's basically a false alarm, it's back to work

[KWT]

I don't see a closed LLC on that loop, I see a open ciorculation...there may have actually been a closed low for a little while right at the start of the loop but whatever it was it was weak and seems to have gone...

[wxman57]

Oh, I plotted a 12Z Friday streamline forecast of 700-400mb winds (10,000-20,000ft). I identified the projected location of 92L on there. Pink lines are streamlines. Yellow lines are a 1MB surface pressure field forecast. As you can see, it may have a hard time getting to Florida with westerly winds across the state behind that upper trof. The only two choices appear to be recurve (if it develops) or head west to Mexico (if it doesn't develop).

[x-y-no]

As I look at it this afternoon, I see a very broad circulation that's no better organized than earlier today, perhaps less organized. It appears to be opening up into a wave. The southwesterly winds aloft in its path are enhancing the convection near the wave axis. Development chances appear to be diminishing.

There's still a chance that the LLC might reorganize and it could become a TD or TS, but I'd say the chances of that are closer to 20% than the 50% on the NHC's 20-50% range.

wow, so all this excitement for nothing huh?? and when I mean excitement I don't mean HAPPY excitement, just excitement....Guess the convection has fooled us once again..

I think some are seeing what they want to see. Lots of people here want a storm badly. I'm not saying to ignore this system, just that a temporary burst of convection doesn't mean it's developing rapidly. The reason for the convective burst isn't a sudden change in organization. But if the convection persists in the same area for 12-24 hours then it could generate greater surface convergence and regenerate the LLC.

I'm hesitant to disagree with you, but in this case I think I do somewhat. Yeas, it doesn't have as well defined a surface circulation as it did yesterday afternoon, but It does appears to still have a closed circulation. And the big difference is that today it has convection over that center which has been gradually improving all day long, whilst yesterday it had significantly displaced convection that declined as the day went on.

Of course that has to persist overnight, but I'd say the probability of that is fairly good.

[wxman57]

Your right wxman, I guess the NHC is seeing what they want when they say it has organized more.

There is a burst of convection, but the LLC has nearly dissipated. Just like with any other burst of convection this time of year, there may be a chance it could persist, generate inflow, and develop an LLC. The NHC's orange area is for 20%-50% chance of development over the next 48 hours. I'm saying it is closer to 20% than 50% as the chance of development. Earlier, it looked greater than 50%, but not today. It's something to keep an eye on, but I don't see development as imminent.