ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[DESTRUCTION5]

Devastatingly Beautiful

[x-y-no]

We have (at least) a Cat 4 now. 127 kt FL winds supports 114 kt at the surface.

Maybe, so far SFMR winds are quite low relative to flight level.

[WindRunner]

I'd say it jumps a little higher first ob of the next set, 973mb is probably a bit high to be in the RMW for a storm probably around 950mb, or a bit lower.

[MiamiensisWx]

If it weakens prior to landfall, it is NOT good news. A corresponding expansion of the wind radii would likely produce a very large storm surge. I've been harping on the fact that this TC's biggest threat at landfall will be storm surge and heavy precip, in addition to strong winds. Most Gulf TCs' storm surges are underestimated. Remember that Katrina's storm surge height (depicted by the NHC and other data) was too low when compared to reality.

Here's my (unfortunate) forecast:

Someone will be killed on the Gulf Coast because they consider winds as THE primary threat.

[cpdaman]

eye looks like it will just skirt the NE side of isle of youth (i.e go mostly east of it) and slam cuba as a solid cat 4, very bad news, and Havanna better hope this 320 degree (or so) motion turns a bit left.

[PTPatrick]

I cannot answer that question about that changing the stats but I have to think it would...because Ivan is not on there. Having said that and this is not a scientific study but...just goes to show how NOT out of the woods New Orleans is....I looked back at the last 4 majors coming into the gulf that I can find that came in from that area(western Cuba). The ones I looked at are Dennis, Rita, Lili and Ivan. I did look at hours...only the forecast landfall point from around the time the storms crossed into the Gulf. I can tell you that in Rita's case she made landfall almost 200 miles from her 72 hour landfall point (Around Freeport but instead hit LA/TX line), but Rita was not coming from the NW carrib. Lili was an october storm with and it was supposed to be heading toward where Rita ended up but instead came about 80 miles east of there into Atchafalaya Bay.
Dennis was a good forecast but it actually was supposed to hi MObile/Baldwin counties and ended up about 50 miles east Just on the east side of Pensacola. And Ivan again was a good forecast but ended up in Pensacola when it has been headed right at AL/MS state line the day before.

Having said all that, and again I am not a statistician or researcher...just seems to be that it goes to show, the cone is the cone, and a least if you look at the past few strong ones coming out of this area 50 to a 100 miles east of the 72 hour mark was NOT a good place to be. Feel free to flame but yes, the NOLA evacuations are a "good" thing in the words of MArtha Stewart.

[Ivanhater]

eye looks like it will just skirt the NE side of isle of youth (i.e go east of it) and slam cuba as a solid cat 4, very bad news, and Havanna better hope this 320 degree (or so) motion turns a bit left.

New image shows, again..north of the forcast point..which was already adjusted for the more northward motion..if they have to keep moving the track east, bad news for NO

[cpdaman]

cuban radar showing isle of youth in the NW west eye wall of major hurrican gustav as of 1245 apparant "landfall" as eye is barely brushing land

http://www.spacecoastweather.org/wx15.html

[gboudx]

From WV and IR, looks like most intense convection is on the west side like this morning before it wrapped up. Why is the convection maintaining on the west but not the east?

Sorry if this has been discussed before.

[Ptarmigan]

I cannot answer that question about that changing the stats but I have to think it would...because Ivan is not on there. Having said that and this is not a scientific study but...just goes to show how NOT out of the woods New Orleans is....I looked back at the last 4 majors coming into the gulf that I can find that came in from that area(western Cuba). The ones I looked at are Dennis, Rita, Lili and Ivan. I did look at hours...only the forecast landfall point from around the time the storms crossed into the Gulf. I can tell you that in Rita's case she made landfall almost 200 miles from her 72 hour landfall point (Around Freeport but instead hit LA/TX line), but Rita was not coming from the NW carrib. Lili was an october storm with and it was supposed to be heading toward where Rita ended up but instead came about 80 miles east of there into Atchafalaya Bay.
Dennis was a good forecast but it actually was supposed to hi MObile/Baldwin counties and ended up about 50 miles east Just on the east side of Pensacola. And Ivan again was a good forecast but ended up in Pensacola when it has been headed right at AL/MS state line the day before.

Having said all that, and again I am not a statistician or researcher...just seems to be that it goes to show, the cone is the cone, and a least if you look at the past few strong ones coming out of this area 50 to a 100 miles east of the 72 hour mark was NOT a good place to be. Feel free to flame but yes, the NOLA evacuations are a "good" thing in the words of MArtha Stewart.

Hurricane forecasting has come a long way. We still have a long road to predict where the hurricane will make landfall. In 1900, they only had hours to evacuate. At least we have 3 days to evacuate. I rather play it safe than sorry.

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

141kts flight level and 943.7mb pressure

[cpdaman]

141kts flight level and 943.7mb pressure

yes but 106-108 max surface recorded.........so far

[PTPatrick]

I guess my point with the previous post is that if the eye ends up even 50 miles east of the current forecast point, then New Orleans could be Toxic soup yet again. The trajectory over grand Isle would be very simliar to Betsy which came up over the west end of town. Actually even if it went head on in the NHC current forecast landfall, I would think with a strong enough storm there could still be levy failure. Lets hope this becomes Lili 2, the sequel.


Edit: Anybody know what the effects of Andrew was. I think right now the forecast for NOLA would be like to what they experienced with that. Andrew was small though, so I cant imagine it did much trouble in NOLA. I think surge may have been less of an issue(although I am sure there still was a surge) because it came it a 45 degree angle.

[CrazyC83]

Given the current data, 120 kt is my estimate (blend of FL + SFMR leaning towards FL winds).

[Brent]

Poor Cuba.

Continues east of track. Way east of where I expected it to be.

[dixiebreeze]

:eek: Poor Cuba.

Continues east of track. Way east of where I expected it to be.

Brent, yes, East. Wish I could stop recalling Charley's big surprise.

[Stormcenter]

eye looks like it will just skirt the NE side of isle of youth (i.e go east of it) and slam cuba as a solid cat 4, very bad news, and Havanna better hope this 320 degree (or so) motion turns a bit left.

New image shows, again..north of the forcast point..which was already adjusted for the more northward motion..if they have to keep moving the track east, bad news for NO

It's never a straight line from point A to point B. .

[Ivanhater]

:eek: Poor Cuba.

Continues east of track. Way east of where I expected it to be.

Yep..way east of the track this morning and continues to track east of the updated..let's see if it gets back..this is more than a wobble..bad news for NO

[Derek Ortt]

Based upon the data, this looks like a 115KT cat 3

[gboudx]

What track are you guys looking at? I'm plotting on the NHC's website and it appears pretty much spot on, albeit some wobbles, but overall motion pretty much on track. Certainly not "way east".