ATL: IKE Discussion

[MHurricanes]

Big storm

You're right, Tolakram, this is becoming a big storm.

- MHurricanes

[luvcanescarol]

Novice hurricane watcher here. What are the implications if Ike slows down?

[JonathanBelles]

Hurricane Ike as seen from the ISS on 9/4/08

[superfly]

Novice hurricane watcher here. What are the implications if Ike slows down?

Faster = more south
Slower = more north

Keep in mind Ike is forecasted to slow down during the next day or so.

[carversteve]

Was a motion at 325 degrees expected? Just wondering..thats pretty much nw.

[HurricaneFreak]

Yes you are right as you can see the size of Ike stretches from Orlando all the way to the Cayman Islands to Cozumel and to middle of Cuba so it may get bigger in the gulf

[Dean4Storms]

Novice hurricane watcher here. What are the implications if Ike slows down?

The slower Ike moves the more chance that the turn northward occurs further east of Texas due to the trough arrival and thus threaten the upper TX or LA coasts.

[fasterdisaster]

Dry slot southeast of that impressive eye. Is that still the outer eyewall or is it just disrupted inflow from Cuba?

[Dean4Storms]

Novice hurricane watcher here. What are the implications if Ike slows down?

Faster = more south
Slower = more north

Keep in mind Ike is forecasted to slow down during the next day or so.

He's not expected to slow down much more than he is currently moving and Steve Lyons made mention of the 10mph having track implications if it was to continue or slow more.

[gatorcane]

looks NW to me at the moment.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-avn.html

[tolakram]

RL3AO go ahead and take over images if you want. Not fun

Where did you get your satellite kml?

[HurricaneFreak]

This is gona be a large storm wind field cause even I am feeling the effects hre with some rain and winds to 25 to 25 mph just imagine in LA and TX

[Dean4Storms]

looks NW to me at the moment.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-avn.html

Me too, the NWS in Mobile made mention in the afternoon Discussion of a weakness currnetly over the MS/AL border and concerns that it could induce a more northward motion in the short term of Ike.

[jinftl]

true...but that is the cloudfield...the wind field is much smaller....

Yes you are right as you can see the size of Ike stretches from Orlando all the way to the Cayman Islands to Cozumel and to middle of Cuba so it may get bigger in the gulf

[deltadog03]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... oom=&time=

There is the weakness we are talking about.

[AL Chili Pepper]

Was a motion at 325 degrees expected? Just wondering..thats pretty much nw.

Per the latest GFDL, Ike was expected to slow down and move 290-310 until around 25 degrees north, where a building ridge will turn him WNW at a faster speed. The 325 motion was a temporary wobble...at least that's the way it looks.

[Dean4Storms]

NWS Mobile.......


SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...MODELS CONTINUE TO
TAKE IKE WES-NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE TX COAST...PASSING SOUTH OF THE FA
DIRECTLY LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. AM A BIT CONCERNED
THIS WEAKNESS WILL PULL IKE A BIT NORTH ON ITS TREK ACROSS THE
GULF...BUT CONSENSUS IS THAT ITS EFFECT WILL BE MINOR. FOR THE
FA...THIS MEANS THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE
THURSDAY...WITH...DEPENDING UPON HOW MUCH...IF ANY IKE GROWS WHEN
CROSSING THE GULF...HOW MANY FEEDER BANDS WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE
AREA...OR IF THERE IS ANY ENHANCEMENT AT ALL. NAM IS WETTER THAN THE
GFS...EVEN WITH A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK...SO HAVE STUCK PRETTY CLOSE
TO A GFS/MAV FORECAST.

[Senobia]

From the Chron, not jinftl - More than half of all evacuees from Hurricane Rita lived on ground high enough to avoid a surge of water from even the most powerful storms.

Some hurricane experts say most of these 1.5 million "shadow evacuees" must heed the mantra of emergency planners — run from water, hide from wind — if Houston's next evacuation is to avoid the myriad problems of Rita's exodus.

I think this is an assinine quote, to say the least. (The Chron's part, not yours.)

For a lot of people, it's not about the storm surge. It's about the winds...the spawning tornados....the halt of commerce and no electricity for days. No gas...no first responders available.

Where do they suggest you 'hide from the wind'...somewhere within your house? Which is liable to be crushed by any number of trees and/or impaled by flying debris?

Any number of scenarios could play out...and have.

To suggest that people refrain from evacuating soley because they are not in a 'flood prone' area is irresponsible.

[Dean4Storms]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/dlmmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=dlm4&zoom=&time=

There is the weakness we are talking about.

Yep ,that is the one.

[HurricaneFreak]

Yea it is moving nw at the moment just for a short time and it could be just a wobble but it wont continue for long period of time.