ATL: IKE Discussion

[Aristotle]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/dlmmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=dlm4&zoom=&time=

There is the weakness we are talking about.

wow!

[Stormcenter]

NHC........WNW @ 10mph, this is slower then anticipated and could loom LARGE if it continues. I also detect a more NW motion right now.

The High is still there and not going anywhere.
It's suppose to track NW before hooking back WNW.

[RL3AO]

I just took an NRL image and created an overlay. Just look at the coordinates on the image to plot it then make the fine tune adjustments.

[jinftl]

Thank you for stating that i didn't make the quote...the quote was from the person interviewd in the Chronicle....it is scary to see my name with the quote after it!

More than half of all evacuees from Hurricane Rita lived on ground high enough to avoid a surge of water from even the most powerful storms.

Some hurricane experts say most of these 1.5 million "shadow evacuees" must heed the mantra of emergency planners — run from water, hide from wind — if Houston's next evacuation is to avoid the myriad problems of Rita's exodus.

I think this is an assinine quote, to say the least. (The Chron's part, not yours.)

For a lot of people, it's not about the storm surge. It's about the winds...the spawning tornados....the halt of commerce and no electricity for days. No gas...no first responders available.

Where do they suggest you 'hide from the wind'...somewhere within your house? Which is liable to be crushed by any number of trees and/or impaled by flying debris?

Any number of scenarios could play out...and have.

To suggest that people refrain from evacuating soley because they are not in a 'flood prone' area is irresponsible.

[Stormcenter]

Was a motion at 325 degrees expected? Just wondering..thats pretty much nw.

Per the latest GFDL, Ike was expected to slow down and move 290-310 until around 25 degrees north, where a building ridge will turn him WNW at a faster speed. The 325 motion was a temporary wobble...at least that's the way it looks.

Thank you.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This thing has a super small innercore...With that being said, I expect this to strengthen very fast once it pulls its head all the way out.

Here is my unoffical wind thinking

Now 70 knots
6 75 knots
12 85 knots
24 95 knots
36 105 knots
48 115 knots
72 105 knots
96 90 knots
120 40 knots inland

Very unoffical and should never ever be used for anything other then enjoyment.

[Weatherfreak14]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/dlmmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=dlm4&zoom=&time=

There is the weakness we are talking about.

WOW, that fill in before IKE sees that... l

[KWT]

The thing is whilst this is a big system in terms of convective coerage, the actual inner core is tight and compact with convection really blowing up just an hour or so after coming off land.

Convection still not all that impressive between the eyewlal and the deeper outer bands but as the system moves away from Cuba the deep convection should expand to cover the whole system eventually and will make it look much more classic.

[Just Joshing You]

Hey all, I've been gone for a few days. Is what I'm seeing on visible and IR Ike completing an EWRC? Looks very.. weird at the moment, like two eyewalls very close together.

[gatorcane]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/dlmmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=dlm4&zoom=&time=

There is the weakness we are talking about.

WOW, that fill in before IKE sees that... l

looks to me that if Ike deepens more quickly its got a nice NNW or NW path between the highs...and since Ike is LARGE, he's got to be feeling that weakness...

[Cape Verde]

Hmmm I think its going to strengthen at least to a minimal Cat. 3 and moving at NW then WNW towards Texas and could make landfall somewhere between Brownsville and Houston.LA may get some outer rain bands but nothing serious because High pressure will keep it south like it did with Florida.

I predict it will hit somewhere between Panama and Canada.

[JonathanBelles]

Ill make it easier:

go to http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/satellite/#taoverlays and download the Tropical Atlantic Overlays. Everything is in there from satellite to SST's and more. Everything is already coordinated.

[Weatherfreak14]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/dlmmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=dlm4&zoom=&time=

There is the weakness we are talking about.

WOW, that fill in before IKE sees that... l

looks to me that if Ike deepens more quickly its got a nice NNW or NW path between the highs...and since Ike is LARGE, he's got to be feeling that weakness...

I should say No where on the gulf coast is safe....Wait, did any of the models predict that much of a weakness???

[tolakram]

Ill make it easier:

go to http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/satellite/#taoverlays and download the Tropical Atlantic Overlays. Everything is in there from satellite to SST's and more. Everything is already coordinated.

I have that one but it doesn't provide the same color scheme that rl3ao is using.

[gatorcane]

The DDOG model did (aka our met Deltadog)

[cheezyWXguy]

This thing has a super small innercore...With that being said, I expect this to strengthen very fast once it pulls its head all the way out.

Here is my unoffical wind thinking

Now 70 knots
6 75 knots
12 85 knots
24 95 knots
36 105 knots
48 115 knots
72 105 knots
96 90 knots
120 40 knots inland

Very unoffical and should never ever be used for anything other then enjoyment.

Very similar to my thoughts, though I believe it could be a little stronger. My unofficial forecast:

now-65kt
12hr-75kt
24hr-90kt
36hr-105kt
48hr-120kt
72hr-125kt-near landfall
96hr-70kt-inland
120hr-40kt-inland

[HouTXmetro]

I should say No where on the gulf coast is safe....Wait, did any of the models predict that much of a weakness???

Yes, Ike is suppose to be moving WNW/NW right now.

[KWT]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/dlmmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=dlm4&zoom=&time=

There is the weakness we are talking about.

WOW, that fill in before IKE sees that... l

looks to me that if Ike deepens more quickly its got a nice NNW or NW path between the highs...and since Ike is LARGE, he's got to be feeling that weakness...

Yeah it probably is feeling that weakness hence the NW motion right now, wouldn't be all that surprised if it tracks along the right side of the guidence for a little while because of that.

[Dean4Storms]

NHC........WNW @ 10mph, this is slower then anticipated and could loom LARGE if it continues. I also detect a more NW motion right now.

The High is still there and not going anywhere.
It's suppose to track NW before hooking back WNW.

Maybe you don't understand the implications here, the more NW movement instead of the foecasted WNW movement induced by this weakness followed by the ridge turning Ike back to the west would mean a bigger threat to the upper Texas coast/SW LA then currently thought. The longer it takes Ike to gain Longitude the worse it is for upper Texas coast in the long run!!!

[Weatherfreak000]

Ike ain't doing that though.


I hate to join a "Wobble war"...but Ike looks NWbyNNW to me right now...i'd say i'm seeing about 330 Degrees.


This weakness is gonna pull Ike way more North then the models see I can see it now.