ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Agua]

URNT12 KNHC 172218
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL062008

B. 20 deg 53 min N
080 deg 10 min W

That's too far south.

[cycloneye]

The last pass is the left one so it has not gained latitud at least in the past 3 hours.

[Jason_B]

People have been saying that Fay needs to turn NW now for over 5 hours today...but it has yet to do so, so why are we still forecasting a Tampa Bay landfall and not a Pensacola or FL Panhandle landfall?

Because of the trough you can see stretched across the panhandle into the center part of the Gulf of Mexico.

Exactly. The further west it goes is only going to delay the time of a SW/central Florida peninsula landfall, it doesn't necessarily mean the final landfall will be further west.

[alienstorm]

Cuban radar shows it has slowed down and possibility a jug to the north. We will see if this persist.

http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... AXw01a.gif

[HURAKAN]

[KWT]

Well recon suggests its south of the NHC track but I don't think the last drop was very good in terms of position so system is probably a little north of where vortex suggests it seems.

Still looking at the Vis.loops looks like Fay is moving about 295 degrees now, solid WNW I think.

[MiamiensisWx]

When you consider the extremely aggravating nuances involved, the NHC has been doing remarkably well over the past few days in regards to the track.

Kudos to them...

[Jason_B]

Cuban radar shows it has slowed down and possibility a jug to the north. We will see if this persist.

http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... AXw01a.gif

Does look like a NNW movement looking at that, that would be right on for the forecast track too so maybe this is a turn starting to unfold.

[cycloneye]

When you consider the extremely aggravating nuances involved, the NHC has been doing remarkably well over the past few days in regards to the track.

Kudos to them...

I concur with that.

[lbvbl]

shocked to see that broward schools are closed. Palm Beach county schools are in session for tomorrow, but will have a meeting to discuss plans for tuesday. What do you guys think will happen with that. If they have broward schools closed it seems to me theres a good chance of PBC doing the same for tuesday.

[tgenius]

I am getting the feeling that the schools closed down a bit prematurely at least on the East Coast. I'm just breathing a sigh of relief as no hurricane warnings=no initiation of BCP plan at work

[SoupBone]

Cuban radar shows it has slowed down and possibility a jug to the north. We will see if this persist.

http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... AXw01a.gif

Does look like a NNW movement looking at that, that would be right on for the forecast track too so maybe this is a turn starting to unfold.

It has been consistently off the forecast track pretty much the entire day but the slowdown might be an indication of direction changing.

[HURAKAN]

In the case of Miami-Dade, you could have classes but you would expose children to strong gusts and heavy rains found in the squalls that will be moving over the county tomorrow.

[johngaltfla]

Just another local obs:

Channel 7 here in Sarasota just displayed the VORTEX model and it shows a Sarasota-Manatee County landfall also. So the local mets are still seeing a possible Sarasota County to North Pinellas landfall.

Just a heads up, not a forecast, wishcast or anything official.

[Frank P]

Does appear at the moment to be moving closer to the coast now and not parallel... at least from this loop... which is what it needs to do to remain on NHC track..

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... ive_0.html

[KWT]

Yep MiamiensisWx agreed.

I really not sure usibng radar for a sheared system is going to give a very good indication of anything other then maybe a general idea of movement.

Current motion still looks like its WNW I see no real jog yet on the vis imagery though the sun is going down now. Extrap motion takes this just north of Cayman islands IF it doesn't lift any.

[Sanibel]

First band through here with light rain. Wind was 5-7 knots from NNW at causeway bridge.

Gray skies and rain to southeast. Upper cirrus outflow band was visible earlier coming from SSE.

[cheezyWXguy]

Cuban radar shows it has slowed down and possibility a jug to the north. We will see if this persist.

http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... AXw01a.gif

Does look like a NNW movement looking at that, that would be right on for the forecast track too so maybe this is a turn starting to unfold.

Thats not the center. The center is further west on the very western edge of the green. It is very hard to see because that is a bad radar with bad location, because the quality is poor, and the center is in the extreme western part of the radar field.

[lbvbl]

In the case of Miami-Dade, you could have classes but you would expose children to strong gusts and heavy rains found in the squalls that will be moving over the county tomorrow.

Yeah I can understand the reasoning for Miami-dade... What do you think about PBC schools on tuesday? Depending on the track it takes, the northern part of the county could be affected.

[DESTRUCTION5]

I saw no comment on the 18GFS having Fay just Crawl up the west coast in probably the worst case senerio...