ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[HURAKAN]

Typical House:

[Aric Dunn]

Something to consider...if Gustav enters the Gulf as a Cat 4 or 5.....it will be developing a Cat 4 or 5 surge....even if he weakens some as he approaches the Gulf Coast to say a Cat 3, we all know that the surge doesn't always diminish as fast.

exactly.. and that needs to be mentioned over and over and over ... and over and over .. because people will for sure think that if it weakens and comes in at a strong 2 or 3 that the surge will still be a 4 or 5 if it is a 4 or 5 in the gulf

[BigB0882]

Looking at the loop that someone posted on the previous page, it appears to be going due NW in that so that should be about on course. Lots of wobbles but a general NW course.

[xironman]

If nothing else Cuba does a great job of dealing with major hurricanes. Look for them to evacuate those in the area and not have a great loss of life.

[O Town]

Large Vis. Loop

[Steve]

Peace out y'all. Confirmed that we're heading to Austin, TX to go chill with my boy Brad for the holiday weekend. We'll take it from there and hopefully split out on Tuesday or so if we can get back. If not, we'll just head on somewhere else until the rendevous in Prattville, AL down the road. Good luck to everyone in the Coastal Parishes and Counties who stand to be affected by the storm.

Steve

[AL Chili Pepper]

Havana is just gonna be devestated by Gustav if this stays as it is. I hope they make it out of it alright, but I'm not too optimistic judging these pictures

Havana is due north of Gustav's current positon....they should be OK.

[Ivanhater]

Peace out y'all. Confirmed that we're heading to Austin, TX to go chill with my boy Brad for the holiday weekend. We'll take it from there and hopefully split out on Tuesday or so if we can get back. If not, we'll just head on somewhere else until the rendevous in Prattville, AL down the road. Good luck to everyone in the Coastal Parishes and Counties who stand to be affected by the storm.

Steve

Good luck Steve..hope to see you on the flip side

[gboudx]

Peace out y'all. Confirmed that we're heading to Austin, TX to go chill with my boy Brad for the holiday weekend. We'll take it from there and hopefully split out on Tuesday or so if we can get back. If not, we'll just head on somewhere else until the rendevous in Prattville, AL down the road. Good luck to everyone in the Coastal Parishes and Counties who stand to be affected by the storm.

Steve

Tell LC hey for me. :thumbsup: Take care.

[Shoshana]

Peace out y'all. Confirmed that we're heading to Austin, TX to go chill with my boy Brad for the holiday weekend. We'll take it from there and hopefully split out on Tuesday or so if we can get back. If not, we'll just head on somewhere else until the rendevous in Prattville, AL down the road. Good luck to everyone in the Coastal Parishes and Counties who stand to be affected by the storm.

Steve

Have a safe trip and welcome to Austin.

[Blown Away]

If Gustav follows the NHC track, she should be far enough W to keep N.O. from the core center. Looking at the map N.O. would be 50-75 miles E from the center. Still have to prepare for the worst but the current track should keep the Cat 2+ winds from N.O., am I correct.

[6SpeedTA95]

If Gustav follows the NHC track, she should be far enough W to keep N.O. from the core center. Looking at the map N.O. would be 50-75 miles E from the center. Still have to prepare for the worst but the current track should keep the Cat 2+ winds from N.O., am I correct.

That looks about right. It's about 45 miles east of the forcast track right now. We'll see how long that holds.

[Sanibel]

The Guaniguanico mountain range is located in Pinar del Rio province, comprised by the Sierra de los Organos Mountains on the west and the Sierra del Rosario Mountains in the east. The range extends through an area of 150 km SW-NE, with a width that varies from 10 to 30 km. The region is abundant in beautiful scenic views and tourist attractions. The Sierra de los Organos Mountains consists of steep slate elevations of up to 400 m above sea level (mostly covered with pine trees) and bizarre round-shaped mountains called mogotes or buttes made of limestone that jut up from the floor of the valley reaching from 200 to 500 m above sea level, resulting in scenes of great beauty such as the world famous Viñales Valley. The average height of this mountain range varies from 300 to 700 m. The highest elevation is the Pan de Guajaibon (702 m) - 2100 feet -, covered with endemic plants, precious wood and coffee plantations. Also present in the area are a number of canyons paved by rivers as the run through the mountains.

[Air Force Met]

Not much to say here.

Yes there is...and this may get me in trouble...but anyone who did not forecast (pro's here) the potential for a high end Cat 3 or low end cat 4...AT LEAST...over the NW Caribbean and headed for Cuba YESTERDAY...really doesn't need to be forecasting. I suggest they put the models down and look at some freaking basic synoptics and be a forecaster instead of a model reader. Been telling my customer for 2 days this was going to happen...not based on any model but just good analysis of the situation. Forecasting a Cat 1 and Cat 2 yesterday over this part of the ocean was just bad forecasting.

There. I said it. Its off my chest. I vented. I can't say much more than that. Slam if you wish...but I really don't care.

[Just Joshing You]

WOW Just checked back in.. Cat 4 145 MPH!? Joe Bastardi said Cat 5 landfall in Cuba.. Oh my gosh I am speechless.

[HURAKAN]

Eyewall landfall.

[CrazyC83]

WOW Just checked back in.. Cat 4 145 MPH!? Joe Bastardi said Cat 5 landfall in Cuba.. Oh my gosh I am speechless.

Before you start eating the crow, remember that many of us on here were predicting such.

[tolakram]

If Gustav follows the NHC track, she should be far enough W to keep N.O. from the core center. Looking at the map N.O. would be 50-75 miles E from the center. Still have to prepare for the worst but the current track should keep the Cat 2+ winds from N.O., am I correct.

No, absolutely not. You assume it will stay exactly on the forecast track, have an eye of some pre-determined size and most importantly NOT wobble to the east just prior to landfall. This is the point I'm trying to make. ANd to add, as others have said, if this is a cat 5 in the gulf and weakness to a cat 3 prior to landfall you're still looking at a catastrophic surge and by the looks of it could send a lot of water up N.O. way.

[shah8]

NHC gave themselves plenty of outs, and made it reasonably clear that they are being conservative.

However though, this isn't Dennis in the Gulf. It really should have been anticipated that this would be more than cat1 or even cat2, and be thought of as a safe bet. I think they were really putting lots of hopes on that westerly shear Gustav encountered after leaving Jamaica.

Just like they're putting lots of hope for shear in the northern gulf now...

[Just Joshing You]

WOW Just checked back in.. Cat 4 145 MPH!? Joe Bastardi said Cat 5 landfall in Cuba.. Oh my gosh I am speechless.

Before you start eating the crow, remember that many of us on here were predicting such.

I went to bed as a Cat 2 and woke up as a Cat 3, then 2 hours after update, nearly cat 5.. that's what I meant as in speechless.