ATL: IKE Discussion

[Weatherfreak000]

Note to Stormcenter: I completely, UTTERLY disagree with that Pro Met if he claimed not to watch wobbles.


Early in the game it makes no difference...but jesus we're talking 3 1/2 days or so I believe until landfall and THIS is the primary time for the storm to gain latitude before the weakness builds in. Not only do I think considering wobble watching good...i'd freaking RECOMMEND it. Any gain in latitude is HIGHLY significant at this point.


As for my weakening post as well...bring up a sat pic of Gustav after landfall...the difference in organization is obvious. (Structure wise...not intensity)

[tolakram]

[superfly]

Motion is not NW, it's 299 over the last 4.5 hours per vortex fixes. Over the last 1.5 hours, the motion has been 292.

[fasterdisaster]

As for my weakening post as well...bring up a sat pic of Gustav after landfall...the difference in organization is obvious. (Structure wise...not intensity)

Again, what? Gustav was a Category 3/4 coming off Cuba, Ike is Category 1. Of course there will be structural differences.

[Stormcenter]

Note to Stormcenter: I completely, UTTERLY disagree with that Pro Met if he claimed not to watch wobbles.


Early in the game it makes no difference...but jesus we're talking 3 1/2 days or so I believe until landfall and THIS is the primary time for the storm to gain latitude before the weakness builds in. Not only do I think considering wobble watching good...i'd freaking RECOMMEND it. Any gain in latitude is HIGHLY significant at this point.


As for my weakening post as well...bring up a sat pic of Gustav after landfall...the difference in organization is obvious. (Structure wise...not intensity)

Ike is going to hit a brick wall (High) and be shoved back down to the west.
I'm sure the NHC has done their homework. They are even better at what they do now
then they were with Rita.

[KWT]

Gustav anybody?

I don't exactly see 25kt of shear around like Gustav had.

Yeah shear is only around 5kts above Ike at the moment and is currently decreasing ahead of it as well, indeed there seems little to stop this really powering up in a huge way over the loop currents in the next 36hrs, could be a very interesting little period to see just how powerful Ike can get.

[KWT]

Ike is going to hit a brick wall (High) and be shoved back down to the west.
I'm sure the NHC has done their homework. They are even better at what they do now
then they were with Rita.

To be fair though they are using the models and they can still make mistakes like they did with Rita. Of course the general evolution looks good but obviously small details like the curve north happening 6-12hrs will have a big impact on the actual track and landfall of Ike.

[artist]

Motion is not NW, it's 299 over the last 4.5 hours per vortex fixes. Over the last 1.5 hours, the motion has been 292.

you can't go by VDM's as they aren't always in the dead center of the eye.

Also remember Ike is sitting over the loop current which has been known to help a storm quickly intensify -


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Ocea ... Stream.jpg

[MHurricanes]

Ike ain't doing that though.


I hate to join a "Wobble war"...but Ike looks NWbyNNW to me right now...i'd say i'm seeing about 330 Degrees.


This weakness is gonna pull Ike way more North then the models see I can see it now.

As a few ProMets have said, they expect the NHC to move things right eventually. How far east, we don't know. I'm still wondering whether a landfall between east Texas and Mobile, Ala., is not in the scheme of things.

-MHurricanes

[tolakram]

[Stormcenter]

Ike is going to hit a brick wall (High) and be shoved back down to the west.
I'm sure the NHC has done their homework. They are even better at what they do now
then they were with Rita.

To be fair though they are using the models and they can still make mistakes like they did with Rita. Of course the general evolution looks good but obviously small details like the curve north happening 6-12hrs will have a big impact on the actual track and landfall of Ike.

Gustav had a ton of wobbles and it still ended up exactly where they said it was 4 days out.....Central LA. coastline.

[Stormcenter]

Ike ain't doing that though.


I hate to join a "Wobble war"...but Ike looks NWbyNNW to me right now...i'd say i'm seeing about 330 Degrees.


This weakness is gonna pull Ike way more North then the models see I can see it now.

As a few ProMets have said, they expect the NHC to move things right eventually. How far east, we don't know. I'm still wondering whether a landfall between east Texas and Mobile, Ala., is not in the scheme of things.

-MHurricanes

Why not include Pensacola and Tampa? Come on now you don't really believe that do you?

[otowntiger]

and a higher speed Hurc winds in Austin is not that out of place [/quote]

But indeed still quite rare, and that's a fact. And still not all that likely, in my opinion. This could be setting up as the doom and gloom scenario that Mr. Lindler is calling for, but it could very well not be. People should certainly pay attention and do what you need to do for the worst case scenario, but I think everyone also should consider the possibility that the sky will actually not fall and this just may, just may not be as bad as the doom and gloomers insist.

[KWT]

Very good point stormcenter, I have no reason to doubt the NHC track though I suspect the track wil lbe a little north, even they've admited thats quite possible.

tolakram, deep convection in the eyewall now nearly totally wrapped, made some really good improvements in the last few hours.

[superfly]

you can't go by VDM's as they aren't always in the dead center of the eye.

Shrug, Cuban radar shows the same WNW movement, if not due west.

[deltadog03]

I would say atleast heading 300 maybe close to 315...thats an avg.....

[jasons2k]

People - I feel AFM's frustration in the models thread.

Please READ a few pages before posting. Use your noggin. There are "veteran" members making posts that make no sense.

A temporary northern jog is expected. That weakness will eventually close. There is nothing to suggest Ike will move into the NC Gulf Coast. Give it a rest. Please.

This storm has 3 days and 3 warm eddies to go before landfall. The core is very well-organized. The setup is there for intensification. If that doesn't concern you then you need to read more and post less.

[AL Chili Pepper]

I recall that in discussions where the NHC is cautiously forecasting a period of rapid intensification, they say that 4 of the factors 'needed' for RI are present, for example. What are those factors and which are or are not present with Ike.

here's the 5 factors....don't know which one's missing.

1. previous 12-hour intensity change
2. SST
3. low level RH
4. vertical shear
5. difference between the current intensity and max potential tropical cyclone intensity

http://cyclone.atms.unca.edu/documents/ ... eprint.pdf

[MHurricanes]

Ike ain't doing that though.


I hate to join a "Wobble war"...but Ike looks NWbyNNW to me right now...i'd say i'm seeing about 330 Degrees.


This weakness is gonna pull Ike way more North then the models see I can see it now.

As a few ProMets have said, they expect the NHC to move things right eventually. How far east, we don't know. I'm still wondering whether a landfall between east Texas and Mobile, Ala., is not in the scheme of things.

-MHurricanes

Why not include Pensacola and Tampa? Come on now you don't really believe that do you?

Well, I don't pretend to be the expert. But I simply can't believe that the storm will move that far east. What do you think? It still looks like a Texas storm, but who knows this far out.

- MHurricanes

[HURAKAN]

Wow, Impressive Ike this evening.