ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[Ed Mahmoud]

Slightly OT:

Good news for Texas, but not until the end of this week.

Not so good for Carolinas

JB's "Long Ranger" video showed a bunch of his analog year that featured early season activity near Texas, and almost all of his analog years that had an early TC near Texas had activity in/ or near miss Carolinas during the heart of the season.


JB didn't mention it today, but in the past, he has mentioned (I remember he mentioned it in 2003 with Claudette) if Texas gets a storm in June or July, historically, it rarely sees any more TC action that season. Based on the records, I guess.


So law of averages says Texas is in the clear after tomorrow.


Maybe.

[Derek Ortt]

no intensification... xtrap pressures well too low

[Wx_Warrior]

Big Ed....I hope you are right...But Dolly may end up landing in Mexico.

[drezee]

AF dropsonde, I believe was 984mb in the eye

something is wrong heights are 25 meters lower, pressure should be 2 MB or more lower...

URNT12 KNHC 230235
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042008
A. 23/02:11:50Z
B. 25 deg 02 min N
095 deg 50 min W
C. 700 mb 2925 m
H. 982 mb


URNT12 KNHC 222355
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042008
A. 22/23:36:50Z
B. 24 deg 53 min N
095 deg 39 min W
C. 700 mb 2950 m
H. 982 mb

[ROCK]

Slightly OT:

Good news for Texas, but not until the end of this week.

Not so good for Carolinas

JB's "Long Ranger" video showed a bunch of his analog year that featured early season activity near Texas, and almost all of his analog years that had an early TC near Texas had activity in/ or near miss Carolinas during the heart of the season.


JB didn't mention it today, but in the past, he has mentioned (I remember he mentioned it in 2003 with Claudette) if Texas gets a storm in June or July, historically, it rarely sees any more TC action that season. Based on the records, I guess.


So law of averages says Texas is in the clear after tomorrow.


Maybe.

there is no law of averages when it come to TC's......its like saying we are over due for a major...

[alan1961]

Yeah I'd like to see that as well Boca as I'm in the UK and don't have nearly quite the same TV options as some of you guys in the states have.

hsvwx, yeah its done a pretty decent job thus far, I think the NHC always say prepare for a category above, so in the as eof the offical NHC forecast, prepare for a high end cat-2 I think.

http://www.newslink.org/stattele.html

just 52 states to choose from there KWT

[Sanibel]

On NHC prediction. Should have wind increase if pressure is dropping.

[Derek Ortt]

AF dropsonde, I believe was 984mb in the eye

something is wrong heights are 25 meters lower, pressure should be 2 MB or more lower...

URNT12 KNHC 230235
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042008
A. 23/02:11:50Z
B. 25 deg 02 min N
095 deg 50 min W
C. 700 mb 2925 m
H. 982 mb


URNT12 KNHC 222355
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042008
A. 22/23:36:50Z
B. 24 deg 53 min N
095 deg 39 min W
C. 700 mb 2950 m
H. 982 mb

not if the mean layer temp is lower

[brunota2003]

There are 50 states, unless I missed something somewhere

[drezee]

not if the mean layer temp is lower

agreed let me check the drops

[Ivanhater]

Yeah I'd like to see that as well Boca as I'm in the UK and don't have nearly quite the same TV options as some of you guys in the states have.

hsvwx, yeah its done a pretty decent job thus far, I think the NHC always say prepare for a category above, so in the as eof the offical NHC forecast, prepare for a high end cat-2 I think.

http://www.newslink.org/stattele.html

just 52 states to choose from there KWT

Now I know you Brits know we have 50 states!

[Weatherfreak14]

Wow this really looks amazing with my GR2AE.... Really beautiful in 3D

[Innotech]

is Dolly peekin? I think I see an eye.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-ir2.html

[Ed Mahmoud]

No MD or Watch yet from SPC, but evening SWODY1 update

...SOUTH TX...
LATEST NHC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS HURRICANE DOLLY WILL CONTINUE TO
APPROACH THE FAR SOUTH TX COAST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. LOW LEVEL
SHEAR WILL STEADILY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING
STORMS/POSSIBLE TORNADOES LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH SPIRAL CONVECTIVE BANDS WITHIN FAVORABLE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT OF DOLLY.

I kind of liked it back in February through April, spotting tornado outbreaks off GFS and Euro 5 and 6 day forecasts, although I always felt bad on the actual day of the event, because this year was a nasty one.


Dr. Forbes on TWC expects 12 to 20 tornadoes tonight and tomorrow in South Texas, most, fortunately, brief and weak. Usually EF-0 and EF-1, but IIRC, the tornado that killed 7 in Galveston in 1961 in association with Carla was an estimated strong F-2, possibly even an F-3.

[Wx_Warrior]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 230258
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DOLLY ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
1000 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008

...DOLLY A LITTLE STRONGER...MOVING A LITTLE SLOWER...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM
BROWNSVILLE TO CORPUS CHRISTI...AND FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF
MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER BETWEEN MEXICO
AND THE UNITED STATES. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF CORPUS
CHRISTI TO SAN LUIS PASS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM LA
PESCA TO SOUTH OF RIO SAN FERNANDO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1000 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DOLLY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.0 WEST OR ABOUT 110 MILES...
175 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.

DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A
FURTHER REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF DOLLY WILL BE ALONG THE COAST
NEAR THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER AROUND MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DOLLY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO REACH
THE COASTLINE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE DATA
IS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES.

DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH
TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

REPEATING THE 1000 PM CDT POSITION...25.1 N...96.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 100 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400
AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[alan1961]

Having early Katrina go thru here first I watched New Orleans tv streaming live as she approached there....and got the same sort of reporting....not coming here...not a major threat.....to the point that it felt like the NHC was the only one yelling...kicking...and screaming about getting folks moving.

Looked at the TV stations both at Brownsville and Corpus and did not find any streaming their on air live....out of Corpus on NBC you can get the last forecast but could not find a live continual feed......and to be honest found their respective websites not really up to date. Same with the official city of Brownsville site...no mention of the storm.

Sad.

I agree hiflyer..piss poor

[RL3AO]

Base velocity left and reflectivity (0.5deg) right.

[RL3AO]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1003 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BROWNSVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN CAMERON COUNTY IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

* UNTIL 1030 PM CDT

* AT 1003 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PORT ISABEL...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 35
MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
PORT ISABEL BY 1005 PM CDT.

TORNADOES ARE ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS AT NIGHT. TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO
A SMALL INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING.
ABANDON MOBILE HOMES. LEAVE VEHICLES AND GET INTO A DITCH OR LOW
SPOT.

PLEASE REPORT TORNADOES OR FUNNEL CLOUDS...WINDS OF 58 MPH OR
HIGHER...HAIL THE SIZE OF PENNIES OR LARGER...AND ANY WIND DAMAGE TO
YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BROWNSVILLE BY CALLING 956-504-1432.

[docjoe]

i believe the tornados that hit Bay and Calhoun counties in Florida the afternoon before Ivan made landfall were F2 in intensity

docjoe

[HURAKAN]