ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Pearl River]

Has JB given his landfall forecast yet?

[cpdaman]

pro's............... given gustav's not moving like a greyhound......won't Gustav likely weaken to a cat 3 from it's interaction with cuba ....over the next 12-14 hours........and how confident are you guys that shear conditions will be favorable in the SE gulf (i.e loop current). this seems to me when it has besh shot at a 5

[Sanibel]

Occassionally a category 5 storm hits land while intensifying. Cuba could see something a little stronger than usual. Impossible to say from just satellite. But the intensifying ones are the bad ones.

Solid overcast and obvious circulating bands overhead here. First big-drop rain and thunder just now.

[tolakram]

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

If it was not for that island, I would think this would have a high chance of becoming a cat5 for Cuba. But lets say this strengthens another 5 mph...Also believe it will take about 8-12 hours to cross Cuba, so that should take it down to around 105-110 mph once it moves over water. Remember Dennis 2005 has Cuba took the innercore out of it, but once it got back together it came back fast. That is also what I expect. Now this could slow down even more as it likes to do over land, and weaken more. I'm not leaving that out. It seems to be a risky forecast going for a cat5 over the gulf...That is hard to say and I would not possibly forecast a cat5.

[jinftl]

There is no need for a panic, but it is time for residents who were effected by katrina and rita to take this storm very seriously. A Cat 4....maybe a Cat 5...storm is moving into the Gulf and is going to develop a surge that reflects such a strong storm. The surge will remain even if the storm is weaker at landfall.

There is still plenty of time to prepare and get out of harm's way. If you are in doubt, don't be....err on the side of caution. I would love to read next week that people are pissed off that they went through the motions for nothing.

[Scorpion]

If it was not for that island, I would think this would have a high chance of becoming a cat5 for Cuba. But lets say this strengthens another 5 mph...Also believe it will take about 8-12 hours to cross Cuba, so that should take it down to around 105-110 mph once it moves over water. Remember Dennis 2005 has Cuba took the innercore out of it, but once it got back together it came back fast. That is also what I expect. Now this could slow down even more as it likes to do over land, and weaken more. I'm not leaving that out. It seems to be a risky forecast going for a cat5 over the gulf...That is hard to say and I would not possibly forecast a cat5.

Dennis also traversed over much of the island.

[HURAKAN]

My family from my mother-side live in Guanajay and my family from my father-side live just to the east of Guira de Melena.

[WindRunner]

If it was not for that island, I would think this would have a high chance of becoming a cat5 for Cuba. But lets say this strengthens another 5 mph...Also believe it will take about 8-12 hours to cross Cuba, so that should take it down to around 105-110 mph once it moves over water. Remember Dennis 2005 has Cuba took the innercore out of it, but once it got back together it came back fast. That is also what I expect. Now this could slow down even more as it likes to do over land, and weaken more. I'm not leaving that out. It seems to be a risky forecast going for a cat5 over the gulf...That is hard to say and I would not possibly forecast a cat5.

Dennis also traversed over much of the island.

Yeah, while this will just cross the island at one of its narrower points...and with the hottest possible waters in the basin just offshore in both directions. Will it weaken crossing the island? Almost certainly. Below a Cat 3? I seriously doubt that.

[otowntiger]

Wow, NHC now predicting a Cat 5 on the gulf.

Does that mean the are now thinking a cat 4 at landfall? I know that they still struggle like the dickens with intensity forecasts, so if they predict significant strengthening there's almost just as good of chance at unforseen and inexplicable weakening. They didn't predict weakening by Lily, Ivan, Opal or Katrina but they sure weakened. If they predict weakening, given their lack of skill, one could just as easily expect strengthening.

[tolakram]

If it was not for that island, I would think this would have a high chance of becoming a cat5 for Cuba. But lets say this strengthens another 5 mph...Also believe it will take about 8-12 hours to cross Cuba, so that should take it down to around 105-110 mph once it moves over water. Remember Dennis 2005 has Cuba took the innercore out of it, but once it got back together it came back fast. That is also what I expect. Now this could slow down even more as it likes to do over land, and weaken more. I'm not leaving that out. It seems to be a risky forecast going for a cat5 over the gulf...That is hard to say and I would not possibly forecast a cat5.

Dennis also traversed over much of the island.

Yeah, while this will just cross the island at one of its narrower points...and with the hottest possible waters in the basin just offshore in both directions. Will it weaken crossing the island? Almost certainly. Below a Cat 3? I seriously doubt that.

As you said, Hurricane Dennis crossed at a shallower angle.

[jinftl]

Prepare for a surge event reflective of the storm's strength now...surge does not wind down as fast as wind.

Wow, NHC now predicting a Cat 5 on the gulf.

Does that mean the are now thinking a cat 4 at landfall? I know that they still struggle like the dickens with intensity forecasts, so if they predict significant strengthening there's almost just as good of chance at unforseen and inexplicable weakening. They didn't predict weakening by Lily, Ivan, Opal or Katrina but they sure weakened. If they predict weakening, given their lack of skill, one could just as easily expect strengthening.

[tolakram]

This floater has finally been moved.

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... ive_0.html

[WindRunner]

Prepare for a surge event reflective of the storm's strength now...surge does not wind down as fast as wind.

Wow, NHC now predicting a Cat 5 on the gulf.

Does that mean the are now thinking a cat 4 at landfall? I know that they still struggle like the dickens with intensity forecasts, so if they predict significant strengthening there's almost just as good of chance at unforseen and inexplicable weakening. They didn't predict weakening by Lily, Ivan, Opal or Katrina but they sure weakened. If they predict weakening, given their lack of skill, one could just as easily expect strengthening.

Well actually, it will only reflect the storm's maximum strength in the Gulf. The surge that it has now will be left behind on Cuba's shores...

[THead]

On top of Gustav being a Cat 4 right now, he's trucking right along too, and that's worrying me even more for anyone in his path. These evacs better get moving quick. I thought a couple of days ago he was set to make landfall Tuesday, now looks like it could possibly be around midday Monday. Seems like it's getting earlier with almost every update, or am I reading it wrong? Anyway, looks like only 48 hours until landfall, and alot sooner than that before they feel some serious effects of the storm before landfall.

I hope everyone is finalizing their preps and evacs right now...

[Scorpion]

He's starting to get the buzzsaw look now.

[Jason_B]

Gustav does not have a Katrina/Ivan/Rita type size though, so I don't know about a widespread massive surge like those storms had. Of course it could grow in size in the Gulf but right now Gustav is more comparable to Dennis and Charley with the surge most likely being isolated to the core of the storm.

[jinftl]

Point taken...prepare for a surge event of a potential cat 5 forecast in the gulf...even if the storm weakens towards landfall or you are not in the eye wall...if a potential cat 5 surge would impact you, heads up! More than anything, i am trying to impress upon folks the seriousness of the situation.

Prepare for a surge event reflective of the storm's strength now...surge does not wind down as fast as wind.

Well actually, it will only reflect the storm's maximum strength in the Gulf. The surge that it has now will be left behind on Cuba's shores...

[PTPatrick]

If going over Cuba causes the wind field to spread..when it restrengthens in the gulf it may not stay on the petite side. BUt it could stay small like Charley and Dennis...who knows.

[canegrl04]

This floater has finally been moved.

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... ive_0.html

Gus looks like a frightening monster.I pray he doesn't become a strong cat 5