ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[ronjon]

Max FL winds only 40 kts this afternoon. That doesn't exactly convert to surface winds 45 kts. Still looks like a poorly-organized minimal TS that's now moving into Cuba. I still have doubts about it ever getting its core going and becoming a hurricane.

I agree Wxman57 not anything to get too excited about. But Bones was warming up for his speech about 6 hrs ago - now he's back to analyzing his patient.

[twister]

Fay has slowed to a crawl. Appears to be intensifying.
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... t_enhanced

[SouthFloridawx]

Convection seems to be definitely on the increase... Looking much better tonight.

[SouthFloridawx]

bump

Fay has slowed to a crawl. Appears to be intensifying.
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... t_enhanced

[KWT]

Definitely looks due north on the radar.

I wouldn't use radar to decide the motion with a tropical cyclone this weak, sure you can use it for hurricanes with eyes but given its right not the western side of the radars range I woud look at recon obs for a much better indicaiton ot rhe LLC as well as high resolution sat.loops as well.

LLC still on the western side of the conveciton but I do think its steadily organising, nothing too drastic though.

[cpdaman]

i found that radar to be quite misleading (i have been looking at the one further NW this after-evening)

I think the big problem with fay is that she needs to get her West side going (nw/w/SW) and until that happens she will be a fairly weak system. and i dont have much confidence wether she will or wont before cuba due to the ULL and wether it is weakening enough. (although one never knows) erratic motion mentioned in the 8pm advisory so i think this could either be over water south of cuba for a while or maybe a few hours depending on how fast she moves.

[SouthFLTropics]

hellow st. lucie neighbor. Fay is looking a lot better this evening.

I would tend to agree...That being said though I think we will probably have to wait until all of these center relocations quit taking place and she gets across Cuba and into the straights. I can button my house up here in less than 45 minutes if I have to so right now it's status quo with a wait and see attitude. Something Wxman mentioned though was how he could not see Fay going very far north with the steering flow the way it is. That is something I had thought of as well. Seems to be a fair amount of spread in the models and I wouldn't be suprised to see the next runs flip flop again. This is a very complicated set up. Most likely we won't get much of anything here in PSL unless she slows to a crawl in the straights and decides to come in over the glades. Then we could get a dose of the real deal. As I said in an earlier post, I wouldn't want to be the NHC making these forecasts. Very problematic.

SFT

[KWT]

Yep cpdaman the western side won't really improve much till the ULL weakens in about 24hrs and Fay gets to around 23-24N away from the system. The GFs still suggesting some sort of upper high forming over Fay though depending on the exacts of the track it may not make a huge difference to strength.

[Sanibel]

The old saying holds true. If you are in the bullseye 4 days out it probably won't hit you. Big swing west which works for me. Models once again underestimated the ridge in the Florida GOM. Even better I get to stay and experience it. I hope it doesn't swing back east.

We just had a big squall with heavy rains and winds. No obvious rotation movement to the rain bands.

[MGC]

Fay is one lop sided TC. Almost all convection is limited to the eastern side of the TC. Despite tracking over some of the warmest waters of the Caribbean, TS Fay is only slowly becoming better organized. Fay still shows no sign of developing a inner core. With landfall approaching and Fay only slowly deepening, odds look long for Fay to acheive hurricane intensity prior to Cuban landfall.......MGC

Of course the above is the opinion of MGC and not an official forecast....

[KWT]

Agreed MGC I highly doubt Fay gets close to hurricane strength before Cuba whilst relative shear has eased there is still enough shear from the ULL to prevent much convection from wrapping around the western side of the center.

[SouthFLTropics]

One thing can sure be said about Fay. She is definitely a fighter. Dry air, shear, land and mountains, etc. Bring it on. She has taken all of them on during her lifetime from 92L to now.

SFT

[Jason_B]

The old saying holds true. If you are in the bullseye 4 days out it probably won't hit you. Big swing west which works for me. Models once again underestimated the ridge in the Florida GOM. Even better I get to stay and experience it. I hope it doesn't swing back east.

We just had a big squall with heavy rains and winds. No obvious rotation movement to the rain bands.

I wouldn't get too hopeful, I'm not buying the west trend...I still see SW Florida being the prime target as it was last night and once Fay turns north tonight I expect the models to come back east.JMO

[cpdaman]

might the angle of the shear change from sw to south allowing some more expansion west of convecton within the next 4-8 hours.

[CronkPSU]

someone just posted this link on the models thread...if you have google earth and you are living in Florida, you should check it out

http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/plots/ge/NHC_Model_Data_for_the_Atlantic_Basin.kmz

[cpdaman]

any storm in memory ever stall out north of cuba? seems steering currents are rather weak

[KWT]

Well jason B what makes you think its going to turn north tonight?

Its possible but who knows really, I guess you believe the GFDL model depsite it being one of the most easterly model out of the entire guidence?

For now given its movement according to recon as well as the other models I have no reason at all to doubt the NHC track.

[CrazyC83]

Check out this drop

21212 00002 05023

1002mb but with a 23 kt wind.

Winds will follow suit. Looking much better.

That would be about 1000mb pressure.

[tolakram]

Must be ready to make the turn.

[Flakeys]

After some rain earlier, there is not even a hint of a breeze tonite. It's plenty thick though.

Stan in the Keys