ATL: IKE Discussion

[Lowpressure]

I just don't get it. All indications are this storm is strengthening at a good clip, 'RI' might not be happening, but intensification HAS to be happening. However, the pressure isn't dropping and winds aren't rising. (well, SFMR says maybe they went up 5 mph but even then that's lower than what this storm looks like) Does anyone know how to explain this?

My friend some of us have been posting on the last few pages as to why The inner core is too small and fighting the broken outer wall. The outer wall must constrict or allow the inner to become dominant before a large supporting CDO can establish itself. This will happen but not right away. Once it does it should be a large and dangerous hurricane with a larger eye.

[Cyclenall]

Based on that sat pic. The inner core is looking better with the eye clearing out nicely. The problem is the inner core is small with several areas around it with broken exterior core. The outer wall needs to either constrict or weaken and allow the inner core to expand or this will take a while.

The outtereye is to broad, I'm going for the innercore taking over and the outtereye to tighten up with it, and weaken into banding. Remember this just got off land...The innercore is way stronger then the outter. This won't do a isidore.

Those are basically my thoughts in a nutshell. I hope the inner core wins.

[Portastorm]

Question. How come some of y'all are on about Ike slowing down "to a halt" when Wxman57 just posted a page or 2 ago and said he clocked Ike moving at what, 9.5 knots? Yeah, that is slower but it's slowing to a halt.

[ConvergenceZone]

Don't make the mistake of thinking a small eye necessarily means rapid intensification. I think the small eye was the result of the inner core being over water south of Cuba in those high heat potential waters where it encountered less resistance and spun up a little mini vortex core.

Dr Lyons made a good analogy tonight on the weather channel. He said that "SOMETIMES" a smaller eye indicates a stronger storm or a strengthening storm. He went on to say that it's similiar to how an ice skater can spin faster if she has her arms tucked in as opposed to her arms being spread out when she tries to spin.

[terrapintransit]

After you click on this link, start the animation and watch how this thing is growing.
Clearly it is intensifying http://weather.myfoxtampabay.com/maps/W ... oater.html

[HurricaneHunter914]

Ike certainly looks organized, but he's still a bit ragged in some places. Give him another day or so to regroup and then we can scream intensification!

[RL3AO]

When the AF was last in there, the last VDM said a closed, 12 nmi eyewall. No mention of consentric eyewalls.

[SoupBone]

Almost grinding to a halt....

This should really concern Galveston, Houston and the SW LA coast if this keeps up? Man oh man tonight and tomorrow are gonna be long.

[thetruesms]

i'll side with Derek for the obvious reason that I consider him an expert and I was fooled by Gustav who looked great I thought after crossing over pretty much the same exact spot in Cuba but never really got its act together...until the winds start picking up or pressure starts dropping, i won't believe it is undergoing strong intensification

This post got me to thinking about comparisons between Gustav and Ike, and I got to thinking about microwave imagery. Here's Ike and Gustav as they came into the Gulf:

Wisconsin's MIMIC product
Ike:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... splay.html

Gustav:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... hr_13.html

Obviously, the inner core of Gustav looks more impressive, as it hadn't just scraped over most of Cuba. But what jumped out at me was that immediately off the coast, both cores have weaknesses in their SE quadrant (which makes sense, the last part of the storm to emerge). It took a long time for Gustav to shore up that weakness, and by that time, it had other issues. It will be interesting to watch Ike and see how it responds.

[curtadams]

Based on that sat pic. The inner core is looking better with the eye clearing out nicely. The problem is the inner core is small with several areas around it with broken exterior core. The outer wall needs to either constrict or weaken and allow the inner core to expand or this will take a while.

The inner core wouldn't expand if the outer core disappeared. Eyewalls rarely grow; they tend to shrink over time and when they get too small to carry the full power of the storm a new eyewall forms outside. Ike is now effectively in the early stages of an ERC with a strong and complete inner core and a weak fragmented new eyewall forming outside. I agree with Sanibel this happened because Cuba messed up the outer wall much more than the inner, which has mostly been over water since the first crossing. The inner core will now grow in strength to use all the power the outer wall can't take, and that's a lot because the outer wall is so fragmentary. RI is certainly a possibility. If nothing else, a storm with a well-defined eye like this is normally at least a Cat 2. After a while, maybe tomorrow, the outer wall will get strong enough to cut off the flow of hot moist fuel to the inner core and then it will start to weaken. But I wouldn't expect it tonight.

Not a met, don't know what I'm talking about, blahblahblah.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Might be better asked on the model thread, but what is SHIPs seeing that it keeps Ike a Category 1?

[Texas Snowman]

Guilt by association?

Not sure if I know what you're inferring there.

Maybe it's just me, but the S2K board seems a little snippy tonight and I think it might be good for all of us to take a deep breath, chill out, and let Ike figure out what he's going to do.

[fasterdisaster]

i'll side with Derek for the obvious reason that I consider him an expert and I was fooled by Gustav who looked great I thought after crossing over pretty much the same exact spot in Cuba but never really got its act together...until the winds start picking up or pressure starts dropping, i won't believe it is undergoing strong intensification

This post got me to thinking about comparisons between Gustav and Ike, and I got to thinking about microwave imagery. Here's Ike and Gustav as they came into the Gulf:

Wisconsin's MIMIC product
Ike:


Gustav:


Obviously, the inner core of Gustav looks more impressive, as it hadn't just scraped over most of Cuba. But what jumped out at me was that immediately off the coast, both cores have weaknesses in their SE quadrant (which makes sense, the last part of the storm to emerge). It took a long time for Gustav to shore up that weakness, and by that time, it had other issues. It will be interesting to watch Ike and see how it responds.

Gustav had shear. Ike doesn't have that, at least for 2 and a half more days (even then it MIGHT not have too much)

[fasterdisaster]

What are the Dvorak numbers for Ike? If they're still based off old presentation when can we expect new ones?

[Lowpressure]

Based on that sat pic. The inner core is looking better with the eye clearing out nicely. The problem is the inner core is small with several areas around it with broken exterior core. The outer wall needs to either constrict or weaken and allow the inner core to expand or this will take a while.

The inner core wouldn't expand if the outer core disappeared. Eyewalls rarely grow; they tend to shrink over time and when they get too small to carry the full power of the storm a new eyewall forms outside. Ike is now effectively in the early stages of an ERC with a strong and complete inner core and a weak fragmented new eyewall forming outside. I agree with Sanibel this happened because Cuba messed up the outer wall much more than the inner, which has mostly been over water since the first crossing. The inner core will now grow in strength to use all the power the outer wall can't take, and that's a lot because the outer wall is so fragmentary. RI is certainly a possibility. If nothing else, a storm with a well-defined eye like this is normally at least a Cat 2. After a while, maybe tomorrow, the outer wall will get strong enough to cut off the flow of hot moist fuel to the inner core and then it will start to weaken. But I wouldn't expect it tonight.

Not a met, don't know what I'm talking about, blahblahblah.

Sounded good to me.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Ike on that loop turned north and went north for some time and then
began turning west...pretty much on NHC track.

[Bunkertor]

this does not have the structure to RI

RI = rapid intensification ?

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

this does not have the structure to RI

we have what looks to be the remains of the secondary eyewall more than 100 miles from the center. I'd expect that to SLOWLY contract and the core gradually weakening.

This may take a few days to rebuild its core. Just think back to Isidore

This already has a core and I have a hunch that this will experence a reverse ERC (if any). The outer eyewall looks quite weak compared to the stronger inner eyewall. I wonder how this stucture will evolve over the coming night.

The pressure being relatively low has my intriqued. Structure is nice but the core is split. Inner core is ok, outer wall is large and ragged. I am agreeing with Derek here. I thin Ike will take more time to intensify than some may think. Ike has been in some sort of ERC since his initial approach to Cuba over two days ago. Setup is strange.

I would REALLY like to know what you guys are seeing that I am not! There is NO outer eye-wall! Microwave data doesn't support a outer eye-wall, Recon data doesn't support a outer eye-wall, radar data doesn't support there being a outer eye-wall and most of all the way the convection is firing doesn't support there being a outer eye-wall! If I didn't mention some data that does support there being a outer eye-wall then please let me in on the secret cause I sure as heck don't see it!

[ConvergenceZone]

Might be better asked on the model thread, but what is SHIPs seeing that it keeps Ike a Category 1?

SHIPS intensity forecast seems to be wrong more than not...I never look at ships....I think just a couple of days ago before it crossed cuba, it barely even had this as a hurricane once it crossed cuba.....I really don't get it...I just stick with the regular models.

[jinftl]

No one is claiming Ike isn't going to become a much stronger storm, i think the disconnect is that.....although i am not a pro met...i am going to go out on a limb and say they have tools and methods of determining if a storm is get stronger that go above and beyond looking at satellites images and cloud tops. There are numbers involved...it is objective...not subjective.

Oh....an example of what RI really can be...Wilma dropped 88mb in 12 hours!!!!