ATL: IKE Discussion

[cycloneye]

What are the Dvorak numbers for Ike? If they're still based off old presentation when can we expect new ones?

09/2345 UTC 23.1N 84.0W T4.5/4.5 IKE -- Atlantic Ocean

[Ed Mahmoud]

Can we edit out the Mimic animations in the response? This page is crawling for me.

[3ABirdMan]

People - I feel AFM's frustration in the models thread.

Please READ a few pages before posting. Use your noggin. There are "veteran" members making posts that make no sense.

A temporary northern jog is expected. That weakness will eventually close. There is nothing to suggest Ike will move into the NC Gulf Coast. Give it a rest. Please.

This storm has 3 days and 3 warm eddies to go before landfall. The core is very well-organized. The setup is there for intensification. If that doesn't concern you then you need to read more and post less.

THANK YOU!

THANK YOU!

THANK YOU!

I have shared this web site with about 50 people in the last 30 days, but the advice I give ALL of them is this:

For every OUNCE of great information I find on here, I have to wade through a TON of BS to get to it! (and there IS a lot of VERY GOOD info that I want and need)

[jasons2k]

Guilt by association?

Not sure if I know what you're inferring there.

Maybe it's just me, but the S2K board seems a little snippy tonight and I think it might be good for all of us to take a deep breath, chill out, and let Ike figure out what he's going to do.

Good post. Yes, I agree. As fas as I can tell, I cannot see one Texan who wants this storm. I could use the rain but not from this, and I'm quite sure Rock would trade a few Shiners for a Texas miss.

My best friend since 8th grade (that's about 20 years now) has two houses in Galveston. One is a rental he owns in Pirates Beach. He has 4 kids. Does anyone think I want to see everything he owns get wiped off the map? They spent two nights here during Rita. We were in a Christian fraternity together at Tech for 3 years and I can say we never prayed so hard together in our lives as we did during Rita.

That said, I have very little doubt at all this will hit Texas. It's not 100% set in stone but I don't see a way off the hook with Ike. I also think it's strengthening now and tomorrow/tomorrow night will scare the socks off of some people. I would hope anyone reading what myself, AFM, Wxman57, Jeff, and some other Texas posters here are stating is taken as serious business and not some game. Because I can promise you, it's not. Not an ounce of it.

[KatDaddy]

Wow Joe Bastardi just posted. A CAT 4 for the Middle/Upper Texas Coast at 140mph. Hope is incorrect at its hype.

[amawea]

I would REALLY like to know what you guys are seeing that I am not! There is NO outer eye-wall! Microwave data doesn't support a outer eye-wall, Recon data doesn't support a outer eye-wall, radar data doesn't support there being a outer eye-wall and most of all the way the convection is firing doesn't support there being a outer eye-wall! If I didn't mention some data that does support there being a outer eye-wall then please let me in on the secret cause I sure as heck don't see it![/quote]

I'm with you Hurricanewatcher2007, I just do not see that outer wall. This looks like a classic hurricane intensifying in progress to me. I'm no pro, but I've been studying and reading this stuff for 45 years.

[jinftl]

HURRICANE IKE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 36
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
0300 UTC WED SEP 10 2008

AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS CHANGED THE
HURRICANE WARNING TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CUBAN
PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE HABANA...PINAR DEL
RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR FLORIDA BAY
AND FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE WEST END OF THE
SEVEN MILE BRIDGE IS DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO
THE DRY TORTUGAS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 84.3W AT 10/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 967 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT.......100NE 75SE 30SW 90NW.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE 100SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 210SE 150SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT

[Category 5]

Ike is slow as a snail...not moving much.

9mph is a snails pace? What is this? NASCAR?

[Dean4Storms]

I mentioned the weakness in regards to a possible short term more northerly track than forecasted and stating that it would turn back westward but the ramifications would be a greater threat to the north Texas coast. That has been batted about by not only me but a number of Pro Mets including the NWS office in Mobile, AL.

[Ed Mahmoud]

The NHC are a bit slower than the 0Z NAM, and well, it is the NAM. But if we are ~72 hours from landfall, and one ballparks 12 hours ahead of landfall for tropical storm force winds on the coast based on size and error cone, this time tomorrow we should (well, could) see watches hoisted, just in time for the late evening newscasts. Only question is where.

[AZRainman]

Here's some more data on pinhole hurricanes....

The other type of eye is dreaded by most forecasters is the pinhole eye. Much like normal hurricanes these storms do under-go eyewall replacement cycles, but for some unknown reason, when the eye re-emerges its a small and compact eye rather then the large eye that's normal. Quite why this is the case is unknown, though I do have a theory.

It goes that once a hurricane starts to under-go EWRC it's environmental condtions/Heat content rapidly improve. This means that while the eye is forming it contracts like a normal eye would in such condtions. When it emerges its already smaller then a normal eye would be. Then depending on its gradiant it can continue to shrink its eye until its so tiny that the eyewall is forced to collaspe into the eye and it re-begins a EWRC.
A classic example of a pinhole eye was hurricane Wilma, which had one of the smallest ever. Due to the samll size of the eye it takes very little change in atmopsheric condtions for the system to deepen rapidly. Wilma was rather an anomaly and I consider it as a ultra-pinhole hurricane. As with normal pinhole eye hurricanes, it travelled over a region which had a greatly increased heat content compared to its origin. Yet the hurricane had yet to form a eye. So it started life already having a eye as small as most pinhole storms. It then did what most pinhole eyes do, tighten its gradiant. the fact that it already had such a small eye and tight gradiant was, I believe, the reason why it got stronger so fast and was the main facotr in allowing it to get so strong. Here's a image of pinhole eye Wilma at her ultimate, pressure in that 2 mile wide eye was probably below 880mbs.

WILMA HAS DEVELOPED THE DREADED PINHOLE EYE. REPORTS FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER INVESTIGATING WILMA BETWEEN 19Z AND 23Z INDICATED A 7-8 N MI WIDE EYE...WITH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE DROPPING FROM 970 MB TO 954 MB IN 3 HR 14 MIN.

TS Wilma was a real oddball and became a category 5 hurricane in just 24 hours.


Ike seems to fit the same observations to be that sort of pinhole oddball....

[Texas Snowman]

Joe B said he is expecting at least 120 mph at landfall and more likely 140.

He is also staying with the NHC track for now, but he fears that there could be a northward move toward the Houston/Galveston area along the lines of the Canadian and the Euro.

He also said that the inner core of Ike is starting to reform its inner core, and while it may take some time to wrap the strong winds in, he believes that this is a monster in the making.

Given what Jeff Masters has posted twice today along with Jeff L's earlier update, I'm not sure that anyone can write this off as "hyping it up."

You don't want to create panic in the streets of Houston, Freeport, or Corpus, but I think this is a very real and sobering possibility, a Hurricane Carla like hit on a Texas coastline that is vastly different than it was in the early 1960s.

And given the fact that this is such a large system, me thinks that tropical storm winds could get on the coast earlier on Friday than just 12 hours out from landfall. I wouldn't be surprised if watches go up earlier tomorrow afternoon and evac orders go out shortly thereafter.

[Extremeweatherguy]

If the 11pm track is correct, then this will be a very bad storm from the Texas coast all the way up through Dallas and even into Oklahoma and beyond! We could be looking at a big wind event for cities such as Houston and Victoria, followed by an extreme rainfall and possible tornado threat for Austin, Dallas and Oklahoma City. Nasty! Nasty! Nasty!

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/ ... 15W_sm.gif

This could very well be one of the worst tropical systems to affect all of the above mentioned areas in many, many years..

[Dean4Storms]

Nice up to date loop of Ike.........

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... duration=6

[cycloneye]

If the 11pm track is correct, then this will be a very bad storm from the Texas coast all the way up through Dallas and even into Oklahoma and beyond! We could be looking at a big wind event for cities such as Houston and Victoria, followed by an extreme rainfall and possible tornado threat for Austin, Dallas and Oklahoma City. Nasty! Nasty! Nasty!

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/ ... 15W_sm.gif

This could very well be one of the worst tropical systems to affect all of the above mentioned areas in many, many years..

Are you going to chase Ike?

[Sanibel]

That doesn't explain why this storm has a history of such a small eye at such a low rotational velocity. You have seen a similar sat image such as this? Such a small eye with a low angular speed to me implies that atmospheric density or another parameter has changed.

AZRainMan:

I believe if you analyzed your September 4th shot more closely you would see that it isn't a small eye but is rather a larger surface eye partly occluded by the upper cloud tops.

My idea is that Ike's current smaller eye is the result of isolated conditions created in the small inner core because it stayed over very favorable waters while the rest of the structure experienced land interaction.

[thetruesms]

Gustav had shear. Ike doesn't have that, at least for 2 and a half more days (even then it MIGHT not have too much)

That's exactly what will make it interesting to watch - what will happen with a storm having a similar structure, though lower strength, in an environment with less shear?

[jinftl]

[thetruesms]

Can we edit out the Mimic animations in the response? This page is crawling for me.

done, but this isn't the only page that's crawling for me - I think with Ike's potential, s2k is experiencing a pretty heavy load

[Dean4Storms]

I think Ike be slowing.