ATL: IKE Discussion

[Shoshana]

What storm was that a pic of anyway?

Allen

I heard Cantore tonight on TWC say that Ike could possibly end up being a larger sized storm than Katrina, not a stronger storm but a larger storm, possibly 500 miles across.

Carla size?

[Stormcenter]

Check out the post from HurricaneMaster_PR on August 30th 2008.

TAFB may nail landfall 13 days out!!!!!!

[Sanibel]

Ike is reorganizing well. Those two big arm-like bands are really rotating with deep IR.

[HurricaneFreak]

I heard Cantore tonight on TWC say that Ike could possibly end up being a larger sized storm than Katrina, not a stronger storm but a larger storm, possibly 500 miles across.

Yea he did say that but he also mentioned it could be bigger than Wilma which actaully was the biggest hurricane on recorded.some people still think its katrina though

[Aristotle]

Am I insane or is that rather strong convection at the center?

[CronkPSU]

was wilma the biggest hurricane ever? i thought carla was

tip is the largest tropical cyclone, I know that for sure

[jasons2k]

I posted this in the model thread, but here's a double since I'm calling it a day:

The problem with the 00Z (new) GFS not the final landfall point, it's what it's doing with the trough coming in. It splits it and leaves a peice behind as a cutoff low. Hence, the trough that is to erode the ridge isn't as strong/deep as it swings through. This is new, so in other words, once again the GFS doens't know what to do with the trough. That makes the ultimate landfall (and final trajectory) suspect on this run, as will the 00Z GFDL and HWFR now...meaning no more clarity until the Euro comes out, and no more clarity from the GFS and its cousins until tomorrow.

To sum it up, the NHC is going to have to pull the trigger on advising EOM offices tomorrow what their evac. recommendations are with little ammunition.

Bedtime.

[THead]

Kind of just sitting there per Radar...

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

Can't argue with that. Appears to be stalled a bit from that perspective. Now, what that means in the grand scheme??

[CronkPSU]

what time is the eclipse for sat pictures tonight?

[Sanibel]

Radar quirk. It's moving right along on trop points.

[HurricaneRobert]

Gilbert was the largest since 1988 (which I guess would beat Carla's record too)

Hurricane Gilbert is the second most intense hurricane ever observed in the Atlantic basin and the largest Atlantic tropical cyclone in size since 1988.[1] It was the eighth tropical storm and third hurricane of the 1988 Atlantic hurricane season. Gilbert wreaked havoc in the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico for nearly nine days. In total, it killed 341 people and caused about $5.5 billion (1988 USD, $9.4 billion 2006 USD) in damages over the course of its path.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Gilbert

That fact was added by a meteorologist at HPC and there's a link to the source.

[soonertwister]

If the 11pm track is correct, then this will be a very bad storm from the Texas coast all the way up through Dallas and even into Oklahoma and beyond! We could be looking at a big wind event for cities such as Houston and Victoria, followed by an extreme rainfall and possible tornado threat for Austin, Dallas and Oklahoma City. Nasty! Nasty! Nasty!

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/ ... 15W_sm.gif

This could very well be one of the worst tropical systems to affect all of the above mentioned areas in many, many years..

I was down in the OKC area last year when TD Erin went by and died shortly thereafter. Erin was briefly a TS and weakened to a TD just before landfall. Erin traversed south Texas to the northern Panhandle and exited the Panhandle not two days before disippation. She rapidly intensified as she approached central Oklahoma however, and deluge rains, confirmed 60 mph sustained winds and wind gusts above 80 hit the OKC metro area overnight.

My mom's 6" rain gauge was emptied before Erin arrived, and sometime between midnight and 6 am overtopped, and we weren't near the most intense part of the storm. In spite of the strong tropical storm force winds, the NHC refused to say that Erin had reintensified into a TS, instead calling it a "low" despite the fact that their own track shows the storm clearly passing the OKC area before dissipation. The winds weren't much of a deal in Oklahoma, but six people drowned because of Erin, with another 10 dead in Texas.

I mention this because Ike is forecast to run right over OKC Sunday evening, and this is no namby-pamby storm. I remember the huge rains we received when Carla came through northeastern OK, and it was pretty intense. And it took several days for Carla to get there, not like the two days that they are forecasting for Ike.

I mentioned the TS intensity of Erin because I think the NHC erred in not saying that she reintensified over land. At wikipedia you can search for Erin Oklahoma City, and the web page on that storm has a nice radar image of an eyewall and clearly defined rainbands as she passed just north of OKC.

We had two tornado warnings that overnight, among many for the metro area.

[Nederlander]

Kind of just sitting there per Radar...

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

Can't argue with that. Appears to be stalled a bit from that perspective. Now, what that means in the grand scheme??

i do see movement, although slow... not trying to wobble watch, just stating my observation, looks like a NW jog on that radar... i could be very wrong though...

[Sean in New Orleans]

It is moving very slow...what is causing the system to move so slow? I thought the upper level low that jetted past the Yucatan a couple of hours ago was going give it a little pull? Either way, it is not particularly good news that the system is moving so slow. To me, it increases the likelihood of the storm tracking to the Upper Texas coast more. We'll see where it is in the next 24 hours.

[BlueIce]

If the 11pm track is correct, then this will be a very bad storm from the Texas coast all the way up through Dallas and even into Oklahoma and beyond! We could be looking at a big wind event for cities such as Houston and Victoria, followed by an extreme rainfall and possible tornado threat for Austin, Dallas and Oklahoma City. Nasty! Nasty! Nasty!

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/ ... 15W_sm.gif

This could very well be one of the worst tropical systems to affect all of the above mentioned areas in many, many years..

I was down in the OKC area last year when TD Erin went by and died shortly thereafter. Erin was briefly a TS and weakened to a TD just before landfall. Erin traversed south Texas to the Panhandle and exited the southern Panhandle not two days before disippation. She rapidly intensified as she approached central Oklahoma however, and deluge rains, confirmed 60 mph sustained winds and wind gusts above 80 hit the OKC metro area overnight.

My mom's 6" rain gauge was emptied before Erin arrived, and sometime between midnight and 6 am overtopped, and we weren't near the most intense part of the storm. In spite of the strong tropical storm force winds, the NHC refused to say that Erin had reintensified into a TS, instead calling it a "low" despite the fact that their own track shows the storm clearly passing the OKC area before dissipation. The winds weren't much of a deal in Oklahoma, but six people drowned because of Erin, with another 10 dead in Texas.

I mention this because Ike is forecast to run right over OKC Sunday evening, and this is no namby-pamby storm. I remember the huge rains we received when Carla came through northeastern OK, and it was pretty intense. And it took several days for Carla to get there, not like the two days that they are forecasting for Ike.

I mentioned the TS intensity of Erin because I think the NHC erred in not saying that she reintensified over land. At wikipedia you can search for Erin Oklahoma City, and the web page on that storm has a nice radar image of an eyewall and clearly defined rainbands as she passed just north of OKC.

We had two tornado warnings that overnight, among many for the metro area.

That was a very awesome weather system we discussed it extensively in classes at OU. I'm hoping that we dodge a bullet on this one but I am afraid we may get hit by Ike and the other tropical system off of Mexico

[Stormcenter]

It is moving very slow...what is causing the system to move so slow? I thought the upper level low that jetted past the Yucatan a couple of hours ago was going give it a little pull? Either way, it is not particularly good news that the system is moving so slow. To me, it increases the likelihood of the storm tracking to the Upper Texas coast more. We'll see where it is in the next 24 hours.

Be patient....it's going to get going.

[jlauderdal]

I heard Cantore tonight on TWC say that Ike could possibly end up being a larger sized storm than Katrina, not a stronger storm but a larger storm, possibly 500 miles across.

typhoon tip is the benchmark, when cantore brigs that into the equation we are getting serious

[thetruesms]

If the 11pm track is correct, then this will be a very bad storm from the Texas coast all the way up through Dallas and even into Oklahoma and beyond! We could be looking at a big wind event for cities such as Houston and Victoria, followed by an extreme rainfall and possible tornado threat for Austin, Dallas and Oklahoma City. Nasty! Nasty! Nasty!

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/ ... 15W_sm.gif

This could very well be one of the worst tropical systems to affect all of the above mentioned areas in many, many years..

I was down in the OKC area last year when TD Erin went by and died shortly thereafter. Erin was briefly a TS and weakened to a TD just before landfall. Erin traversed south Texas to the northern Panhandle and exited the Panhandle not two days before disippation. She rapidly intensified as she approached central Oklahoma however, and deluge rains, confirmed 60 mph sustained winds and wind gusts above 80 hit the OKC metro area overnight.

My mom's 6" rain gauge was emptied before Erin arrived, and sometime between midnight and 6 am overtopped, and we weren't near the most intense part of the storm. In spite of the strong tropical storm force winds, the NHC refused to say that Erin had reintensified into a TS, instead calling it a "low" despite the fact that their own track shows the storm clearly passing the OKC area before dissipation. The winds weren't much of a deal in Oklahoma, but six people drowned because of Erin, with another 10 dead in Texas.

I mention this because Ike is forecast to run right over OKC Sunday evening, and this is no namby-pamby storm. I remember the huge rains we received when Carla came through northeastern OK, and it was pretty intense. And it took several days for Carla to get there, not like the two days that they are forecasting for Ike.

I mentioned the TS intensity of Erin because I think the NHC erred in not saying that she reintensified over land. At wikipedia you can search for Erin Oklahoma City, and the web page on that storm has a nice radar image of an eyewall and clearly defined rainbands as she passed just north of OKC.

We had two tornado warnings that overnight, among many for the metro area.

That was not a fun morning, taking my dog out - though it did make me think to check a radar image, so I could see her "eye". Though from reading the NHC TC Report, it wasn't a mistake to refrain from calling it a TS. The causes for it reintensifying weren't tropical in nature - perhaps it could have been labeled subtropical if it had lasted a little longer.

It might be kind of fun to see that happen again, but from the model runs so far, I don't think we'll be getting that pleasure from Ike . . . just a lot of rain. Though at this time of year, that would be pretty welcome . . . except in the northeastern part of the state, of course.

[ROCK]

I heard Cantore tonight on TWC say that Ike could possibly end up being a larger sized storm than Katrina, not a stronger storm but a larger storm, possibly 500 miles across.

typhoon tip is the benchmark, when cantore brigs that into the equation we are getting serious

JB's thought were similar tonight....but of course JB does error on the side of sensationalism.....

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

A Typhoon Tips could never form in the gulf. It would be bigger then the gulf...The biggest Atlatnic cyclones have about 300 nmi wide tropical storm wind field, Tips had 3 times that.

Do I think this could get to have a wind field the size of Katrina, Wilma, it may not be impossible.