ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[storms in NC]

They might move it more back to the east. It is going to be up to what she does in strength wise I think. There is a High in the Gulf so i would say Fla and east coast.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

calmBeforeStorm, we simply can't assume thats whats happening, IR simply can't see the LLC and thus the true track could be anything under that deeper convection.

By the way the point JB made about the inner core makes some sense, the LLC was on a near due west but its probably whipping around and on a fairly uneven track on a broad WNW/NW motion.

But there is no deep convection west of 80 longitude so the center has not moved west yet. It might be moving north.

[Bgator]

Very interesting, not at all saying it is going to take a similar path, but interesting none the less.

[Vortex]

looking at the wv and location of fay its certainly hard to imagine the current NHC track coming to frutrition. It looks like the keys and southern florida may be dealing with the core of fay if the current trends continue.

[wxman57]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/prelims/1999irene4a.gif

I was thinking the same thing about the current setup - very similar. And note the BAM models taking it NW to the central Gulf coast, too. Irene clipped SE Florida, taking a sharp NE turn north of Cuba.

[AJC3]

For the untrained, what do these charts mean?

The first two links are the upper air soundings from Tampa and Cape Canaveral. They both show deep layer southwest flow, as do the 50MHZ and 915MHZ profilers from the Cape (bottom link). With southwest flow already in place across central Florida, that indicates the steering ridge to the north of Fay "ain't all that" (i.e. pretty narrow).

[fci]

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/satellite/Miami/WV/atl_wv1_loop.gif

ULL moving away SW. Can this position enhance Fay?

Look at that trof digging down into the northern Gulf! It would be hard for a TC to track through that.

Meaning she would have to turn right?
If so, how far up would she go before?

[Jason_B]

Wow that's a neat graphic LeeJet, almost identical to the current model plots. And seeing that trough digging down...who knows

[Wx_Warrior]

Anyone else unimpressed tonight with Fay like I am?

[KWT]

Once again who i to say the center is under the deepest convection, given there is still some shear its probably on the western side of the convection. Remember there is shear coming from the WSW which will displace the deepest convection more to the eastern side.

I think it really has slowed right down, I'd also guess it is moving NW now as well but these sheared systems can sometimes pull surprised and the LLC can sometimes be further west then you expect...

[Weatherboy1]

hard to tell without visible imagery or recon, of course, but those last few IR shots appear to show that 1) Fay is finally developing a nice ball of healthy, building convection right over her center and 2) that center is now starting to track (or at least jog) more northerly, perhaps even NNW in the past few frames. Definitely something to watch closely because this is the kind of thing that could get Fay a lot closer to hurricane strength before she makes landfall in Cuba.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I don't know what I was thinking when I put 115 knots in the contest forum. It appears I'm going to be dead wrong. Something weird must of went through my head.

As for this storm, I can't wait intil recon gets in there. I expect they will find strong enough winds to say 50 knots with pressures down to around 998 millibars.

[Dean4Storms]

That's just it, this trough is expected to invert and lift out according to Mobile NWS Discussion come Monday/Tues time frame here along the Gulf Coast, I believe what Jay (Nexrad) to be true, this trough is fairly subtle but enough to get Fay turning through the ridge. But dependant on how quickly she does that means all the difference between her winding up on the SW Coast and moving more NNE up through the peninsula or as the models have flipped and indicated moves slower in the turn therefore the NNE movement puts her into the Big Ben area near Cedar Key. Alot will depend on the lift and turn tonight and into the morning as to where she crosses the coast.

[ronjon]

Spaghetti plots. Has anyone seen this much variability before?

[Dean4Storms]

That's just it, this trough is expected to invert and lift out according to Mobile NWS Discussion come Monday/Tues time frame here along the Gulf Coast, I believe what Jay (Nexrad) to be true, this trough is fairly subtle but enough to get Fay turning through the ridge. But dependant on how quickly she does that means all the difference between her winding up on the SW Coast and moving more NNE up through the peninsula or as the models have flipped and indicated moves slower in the turn therefore the NNE movement puts her into the Big Ben area near Cedar Key. Alot will depend on the lift and turn tonight and into the morning as to where she crosses the coast.

[NEXRAD]

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/satellite/Miami/WV/atl_wv1_loop.gif

ULL moving away SW. Can this position enhance Fay?

Look at that trof digging down into the northern Gulf! It would be hard for a TC to track through that.

And this...
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/smg/Images/KSCSNDG.GIF
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/upper/tbw.gif

and this....
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/smg/KSC50P.htm

The western extension of the low to mid level ridge north of Fay is pretty narrow to begin with.

Please correct my assessment of this data, if I have any errors, but it suggests that: 1) ridging is shallow, extending only to about H85, 2) Tampa Bay seems to be outside of the surface ridge's influence given that northwesterly surface wind, 3) the shallow, narrow nature of the ridge lends itself to additional weakening and that the shallow nature of the ridge will prompt it to have less influence on Fay if the system deepens.

On the third point, I notice the West Coast sea breeze front on the ADAS Mesonet. It seems to me that this boundary may have eroded some of the near-surface ridging (?).

- Jay

[cpdaman]

i remember irene i was in boca raton (fau) we were playing volleyball that evening and all through the nite (and i was wondering why they didn't take more precautions on campus) (make us stay inside) because it got pretty bad (worse then they were calling for) but i figured it was just me thinking the winds were worse than they were.

anyway look at this loop, http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-ir2.html

the clouds are moving NNW (the big picture as wxman pointed out early this afternoon) they were pointd toward key west when he said this , now look where they point (miam) this tells me the short term motion should be NNW drift

i'm looking for a slow death over the mountains to the north tonite, with something of a poor structure emerging, and depending on steering currents after that, possibly re-organizing

[Ed Mahmoud]

Miami sounding

[Bgator]

WXman, though it seems all indications this will miss south florida, is there any possible set up, that would allow this to take a more NE turn?

[KWT]

KWT is on a mission to make Fay not turn North.

Give it up. This is headed for Disney World

Hardly I said its probably moving NW but I'm just saying with IR you just can't say its heading northwards because you just can't see the lower levels.

All along I've been thinking Tampa Bay region and I still think thats what will happen...

The comprasion to Irene is interesting though by the way BUT this is mid August not mid october and thats one pretty decent difference IMO...

Finally what possible reason would I care really where it went, I'm on the other side of the Atlantic the only way this will have any impact on my weather is maybe 2 weeks down the line or something!