ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Frank P]

Only two of the entire group have any kind of easterly component to them at the end of their runs... obviously they expect this trough to be of no significant at the end of their run.. or they are all wrong... models... only ones I like show up in sports illustrated...

[CalmBeforeStorm]

WXman, though it seems all indications this will miss south florida, is there any possible set up, that would allow this to take a more NE turn?

It would only have to take a northerly turn to hit S. Fla.

[wxman57]

i remember irene i was in boca raton (fau) we were playing volleyball that evening and all through the nite (and i was wondering why they didn't take more precautions on campus) (make us stay inside) because it got pretty bad (worse then they were calling for) but i figured it was just me thinking the winds were worse than they were.

anyway look at this loop, the clouds are moving NNW (the big picture as wxman pointed out early this afternoon) they were pointd toward key west when he said this , now look where they point (miam) this tells me the short term motion should be NNW drift

i'm looking for a slow death over the mountains to the north tonite, with something of a poor structure emerging, and depending on steering currents after that, possibly re-organizing

Good point about where Fay seems to be "pointing" now. An old rule of thumb is that the center follows the convection. Note where all of Fay's convection is. It's right of the center. It's also slowing down now. We have to watch for a significant track shift east tonight.

[NDG]

I believe Fay has now developed an inner core


And by looking at the radar, it looks like Fay has begun the NW heading

[Bgator]

WXman, though it seems all indications this will miss south florida, is there any possible set up, that would allow this to take a more NE turn?

It would only have to take a northerly turn to hit S. Fla.

Chances are that it isnt gonna go sharp north right now, so basically im asking if there is any possibility of an irene like set up, where the models just missed what actually happened.

[Jason_B]

Overall Fay appears to be drifting to the north now.

[wxman57]

Only two of the entire group have any kind of easterly component to them at the end of their runs... obviously they expect this trough to be of no significant at the end of their run.. or they are all wrong... models... only ones I like show up in sports illustrated...

And 11 of those plotted models are about worthless for hurricanes. The 11 moving it to the FL Panhandle.

[KWT]

By the way if it does make that NNE turn then kudos goes to the ECM because it did forecast that to happen.

By the way one other thing to remember, quite often when these systems make landfall they do tend to arch more to the east, this may well end up doing the same thing so everywhere in Florida needs to watch this.

[TheRingo]

looks like she put on the brakes.

[tgenius]

Only two of the entire group have any kind of easterly component to them at the end of their runs... obviously they expect this trough to be of no significant at the end of their run.. or they are all wrong... models... only ones I like show up in sports illustrated...

And 11 of those plotted models are about worthless for hurricanes. The 11 moving it to the FL Panhandle.

It seems like a wet and windy birthday for me tomm in miami

[AtlanticWind]

i remember irene i was in boca raton (fau) we were playing volleyball that evening and all through the nite (and i was wondering why they didn't take more precautions on campus) (make us stay inside) because it got pretty bad (worse then they were calling for) but i figured it was just me thinking the winds were worse than they were.

anyway look at this loop, the clouds are moving NNW (the big picture as wxman pointed out early this afternoon) they were pointd toward key west when he said this , now look where they point (miam) this tells me the short term motion should be NNW drift

i'm looking for a slow death over the mountains to the north tonite, with something of a poor structure emerging, and depending on steering currents after that, possibly re-organizing

Good point about where Fay seems to be "pointing" now. An old rule of thumb is that the center follows the convection. Note where all of Fay's convection is. It's right of the center. It's also slowing down now. We have to watch for a significant track shift east tonight.

I agree , The NHC may have to make a adjustment of their track on this one , it is a tough forecast on this type of storm still in a formation stage.

[HURAKAN]

Do you recognize this storm?

[NEXRAD]

Fay is certainly looking better tonight, but I'd not go so far as to say it's developed an inner core.

As for storm motion; when the models jumped west earlier today I was thinking my forecast (in the tropical analysis forum) needed an update. Given the current information, the models trending a little more east now, and what I'm seeing on satellite imagery, I'm thinking that my previous forecast (landfall in vicinity of Naples/Fort Myers) seems pretty good for now. (Unofficial forecast, as always, use the official TPC product and information from your local NWSFO for all decision making.)

- Jay

[Frank P]

Spaghetti plots. Has anyone seen this much variability before?

wxman57 I see more than 11 models on this run... only two have any kind of easterly component...

[SoupBone]

Only two of the entire group have any kind of easterly component to them at the end of their runs... obviously they expect this trough to be of no significant at the end of their run.. or they are all wrong... models... only ones I like show up in sports illustrated...

And 11 of those plotted models are about worthless for hurricanes. The 11 moving it to the FL Panhandle.

That's a pretty bold statement for a Pro Met. Why would the NHC use them at all? Calling them worthless means you know something the NHC doesn't?

[CalmBeforeStorm]

One things for sure. The 11:00 NHC discussion is going to be an interesting one.

[AJC3]

Please correct my assessment of this data, if I have any errors, but it suggests that: 1) ridging is shallow, extending only to about H85, 2) Tampa Bay seems to be outside of the surface ridge's influence given that northwesterly surface wind, 3) the shallow, narrow nature of the ridge lends itself to additional weakening and that the shallow nature of the ridge will prompt it to have less influence on Fay if the system deepens.

On the third point, I notice the West Coast sea breeze front on the ADAS Mesonet. It seems to me that this boundary may have eroded some of the near-surface ridging (?).

- Jay

Your points are pretty much on target. What is to be taken from this is that is you were to start computing mean layer winds steering winds, you'd get SW-NE for any layer that you picked. This begs the question just how far north between central and south Florida the ridge north of Fay extends. Check out Key West...

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/upper/eyw.gif

The low to mid level ridge is pretty stout there...and the axis is to the north. Now Miami...

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/upper/mfl.gif

A tad weaker above 500MB but still strong below. There's a pretty pronounced shift in the flow pattern once you get to central Florida. Just where between 26N and 28N this occurs is crucial to the specific track and eventual landfall. And of course, do the models have a good feel for what the evolution of the ridge and trough to the north will be.

[ronjon]

While Fay seems to have slowed to reorganize, she's still moving W-NW or NW - on track with the NHC. This discussion about stalling is really irritating since one cannot discern the LLC from IR and you need RECON for fixes to establish that. The storm has always been progged to slow as it rounds the edge of the ridge. I don't see anything in the recent guidance to change the NHC's track signifiantly. By the way, the axis of that northern GOM trough is already near Mobile and will be lifting out the next 24 hrs with Atlantic high pressure building in from the east.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Too bad I have to be in bed for 0Z models. Just looking at Fay, that awesome WV loop posted a couple of pages back, a track further East seems very possible.

And while I was doubting my man Bastardi yesterday, his general prediction the past week, this would be a bigger player in the Carolinas than Florida, seems at least possible.

[ExBailbonds]

Do you recognize this storm?

Funnny one you are.