ATL: IKE Discussion

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

New strength forecast as of 4am est for Ike

Now 65 knots
6 hours 70 knots
12 hours 80 knots
24 hours 90 knots
36 hours 100 knots
48 hours 105 knots
60 hours 105 knots
72 hours 100 knots
84 hours 90 knots moving inland
96 hours 60 knots inland
120 hours 40 knots inland

Max winds can be within 20-30 knots each way, so it is a wait in see.

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

New strength forecast as of 4am est for Ike

Now 65 knots
6 hours 70 knots
12 hours 80 knots
24 hours 90 knots
36 hours 100 knots
48 hours 105 knots
60 hours 105 knots
72 hours 100 knots
84 hours 90 knots moving inland
96 hours 60 knots inland
120 hours 40 knots inland

Max winds can be within 20-30 knots each way, so it is a wait in see.

Well matt your forecast is off right from the start. You have your starting strength at 65kts however recon found a 81kts FL which supports 75kts at this time!

[Rainband]

Thats why he said max winds can be within 20-30 knots

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

SMRF and flight level data now support 70 knots. Very little data shown above 65 knots earlier.

[HarlequinBoy]

962 extrap

question - how can Ike be so big, look so impressive, have a low pressure, and still be just a mid-level Cat 1? Not that I'm complaining in the least, it just doesn't seem to add up...

On satellite and IR he does look like a Cat 1 to me.

The winds will catch up to the pressure eventually as Ike gains more strength today.

[xironman]

Can anyone explain why the dropsondes are so different than the flight and SMFR data? First there was the one with 105kt and the latest with 91kt. Just a bad batch of instruments?

Edit: I was off, the latest was 80kt and the earlier one was updated to 91kt. But the question still applies.

[dwg71]

nhc has landfall near port aransas at just after 2am Saturday.

[Thunder44]

Can anyone explain why the dropsondes are so different than the flight and SMFR data? First there was the one with 105kt and the latest with 91kt. Just a bad batch of instruments?

Edit: I was off, the latest was 80kt and the earlier one was updated to 91kt. But the question still applies.

I think the dropsondes are more reliable than the SMFR. It seems Avila ignored the 91kt reading from the dropsonde, even though the current pressure would support Cat 2 strength.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Dropsondes probably, though I do not know, measure gusts of wind as they come down in the atmosphere. They might be very short averaged winds. So, they might not be close to the sustained wind. So perhaps the 105 mph was a real reading, but of a gust. The latest advisory says gusts to about 105 mph (90 knots), so maybe that could be it. Hopefully someone who knows can answer.

[xironman]

That makes sense Chris. We have had two above advisory, I guess they are just getting lucky catching the gusts.

[dwg71]

trough in nw, appears to be cutting off a ull, as gfs suggested can a met confirm or deny.

[HouTXmetro]

I guess everyone is sleep... Just awoke myself.

[KWT]

Shear is increasing over the system a little, still not all that hit but the area of lowest shear now to the west of Ike, still not that high but an increase from last night.

Anyway Ike is starting to develop very deep convection now, not surprising if pressure is dropping pretty readily now, got to be strengthening with convection like that.

western side looks little unimpressive however...

[HouTXmetro]

yes, convection really deepening around the center.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-avn.html

[KWT]

Yep good deep convection, though the western quadrant still looks a little flat and weak, mind you a fair amount of the inflow is still over cuba I suppose.

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Pressure 960.1 with a 8kt wind. looks like it dropped 3mb based on that.

[xironman]

That dry pocket seems to be holding back the western side

[KatDaddy]

I am awake checking out the latest. IKE is still a coming to the Middle TX Coast. Today will be the decision day for the TX Coast. I expect lots of activity around the Houston-Galveston area has evacs and preparations really pick up.

[HouTXmetro]

Is it just me or ike still moving really slow. I know a slowdown was expected, but this seems slower than what was forecasted.

[KWT]

Yep Ike's western side really isn't all that impressive right now, I wonder why...

Lowest pressure from recon now 959.9mbs extrap, so pressure is dropping away quite readily now, not all that surprising given the cinvective blow ups near the center.