ATL: IKE Discussion

[dwg71]

west side is dealing with dry air out in front and ne side is becoming flattend with hp ridge moving over. expect western turn in the next 12 hour. imo

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

This time we have a 82kt wind right in the eye wall instead of way out far away from the center like the last 82kt wind that was found!

[KWT]

I ddon't think it'll be turning that quickly, indeed right now its to the north of the forecast track with recon fixes confirming it.

Anyway convection still blowing up in the inner core, no doubt helping Ike to strengthen even if as others have pointed out, the western side really isn't all that impressive.

[Derek Ortt]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8wxc.GIF

its not dry air. The thing is under 20KT of westerly shear

[HouTXmetro]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8wxc.GIF

its not dry air. The thing is under 20KT of westerly shear

Was this shear forecasted this early? Should really keep Ike in check.

[deltadog03]

He won't turn that quickly, thanks kwt, To be honest the only way ike can move right now is NW.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8wxc.GIF

its not dry air. The thing is under 20KT of westerly shear

Just like Gustav, the Gulf is not favorable for any RIC this year it seems. No surpize here.

[jinftl]

Probably one reason the NHC never forecasted rapid intensification...just steady intensification. Currently intensifying very much in line with what the NHC has been forecasting.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8wxc.GIF

its not dry air. The thing is under 20KT of westerly shear

Was this shear forecasted this early? Should really keep Ike in check.

[KWT]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8wxc.GIF

its not dry air. The thing is under 20KT of westerly shear

Ah yeah from the big upper high, very interesting would explain why the western side just can't get going...thats going to peg back Ike a good deal though the inner core still holding well enough for now.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It would not suprize me at all if the shear increased over the next few days. It would not suprize me if this never became a major hurricane again...But if it gets a chance it still could...

[Derek Ortt]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8wxc.GIF

its not dry air. The thing is under 20KT of westerly shear

Was this shear forecasted this early? Should really keep Ike in check.

the magnitude was, but from the opposite direction

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Shear however is decreasing ahead of Ike!

[HouTXmetro]

Anybody notice the stalled front draped over the Gulf Coast from Texas to Georgia? Just click on the front's Icon in this loop image. There is also a 1012MB Low along the Front near Austin, TX. Any idea if this front/low may interact with Ike?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

[KWT]

Matt, there is shear though the thing to note is the inner core still looks solid and pressure is deepening at steadily thus far according to recon, the shear is just enough to prevent the system really expanding on its western side. I still think the shear is low enough to allow this to get upto major status though whether or not it can get higher is now in doubt.

[jinftl]

That is what we all want to hear!!! I hope he never regains his former glory around the Turks & Caicos.

Matt, there is shear though the thing to note is the inner core still looks solid and pressure is deepening at steadily thus far according to recon, the shear is just enough to prevent the system really expanding on its western side. I still think the shear is low enough to allow this to get upto major status though whether or not it can get higher is now in doubt.

[KatDaddy]

Thereis no doubt IKE is becoming better organized as very deep convection is exploding and wrapping around the center.

[KWT]

Hurricanewatcher2007, true but note shear is actually slightly increasing over Ike right now.

I also wonder whether thats why the eye vanished

Saying all that the inner core still looks explosive, remember Hanna stregthened well under even higher shear thanks to the explosive convection in its inner core.

[jinftl]

Thank goodness for the shear....he could already be alot stronger!

Thereis no doubt IKE is becoming better organized as very deep convection is exploding and wrapping around the center.

[KWT]

Another little burst right over the NE part of the eyewall, Ike is putting up some decent deep convection even though there is very little convection on the western side still...as you'd expect with the shear there.

[dwg71]

seems to be holding steady as a 75kt cat 1, but I would not expect any intensification in its current conditions. not sure how long will last.