ATL: IKE Discussion

[deltadog03]

DWG, this is why I said it really only has 1 true way too go...Now, that weakness if forecasted to go away in around 24 hours.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... oom=&time=

[KWT]

dwg71, inner core is explosive and the pressure is steadily dropping, its not undergoing RI by any means but its strengthening. Winds not really responded yet but that may take a little while yet, always seems to take a while to increase as the pressure goes down it seems!

[HouTXmetro]

I'm really not the one to wobble watch but being that the timing of the turn and location of Ike could be the difference in ultimate landfall I am watching. With that said, Ike looks like he will miss the next point to the East.

[jinftl]

The longer he stays a Cat 1 or even 2...at least he is not getting a chance yet to start mounting a Cat 5 surge that might remain even if the winds came down before landfall. That is good for all on the Gulf.....not great....storm surge is never welcome...but better than we have seen with other storms so far.

[KWT]

jinftl, even with this shear we are still probably looking at a major hurricane. The GFS does suggest though there maybe some weakening near landfall as the shear does increase again...thats something to hope for!

[jinftl]

i hope the shear turns out to be much more of a nemesis to ike than forecast....

jinftl, even with this shear we are still probably looking at a major hurricane. The GFS does suggest though there maybe some weakening near landfall as the shear does increase again...thats something to hope for!

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Maybe a little hint of the eye returning on latest IR images:

[KWT]

Yep indeed. More intense convection still blowing up in the northern eyewall right now, wlel I assume its the northern eyewall anyway so I suspect the pressure is still dropping away with Ike.

[cycloneye]

Slowly,pressure keeps dropping now the latest pass down to 958 mbs.

[xironman]

The NOAA plane had a dropsonde with 961 a while back and recently an extrap of 958.2, so it looks like he is still powering up.

[curtadams]

Ike's core is under *less* than 10 knots of shear:

[jinftl]

Is it just the the way pic is formatted or is Ike missing alot of the convection and banding on the west side? Is that what the shear is doing? CDO and right half look fierce though.

Maybe a little hint of the eye returning on latest IR images:

[mattpetre]

I'm worried that G'ston may not do an evac. Considering what the keys saw yesterday, I wouldn't want to be on an Island on the E. side of Ike. All of that assumes that he gets to be a major of course. I just hope they will still err on the side of caution.

[KWT]

Yep pressure still dropping away according to recon, really not that surprising really given the deep convection blowing up near the center, I'm a little surprised winds still aren't really increasing that much.

However Ike does have a very large wind field, indeed recon finding winds near hurricane force a long way out from the inner core, thats probably why the winds haven't gone up much at all yet I guess despite pressure dropping in the last 6hrs.

[cycloneye]

Pressure now down to 958 mbs.I think its at 80kts now.

[HouTXmetro]

Benchmark to watch, as of the 5AM track, Ike isn't suppose to reach the 25th latitude until early Thursday morning (3AM-6AM). I have a feeling that will occur alot sooner today based on where Ike is now and current movement.

[physicx07]

Yep pressure still dropping away according to recon, really not that surprising really given the deep convection blowing up near the center, I'm a little surprised winds still aren't really increasing that much.

However Ike does have a very large wind field, indeed recon finding winds near hurricane force a long way out from the inner core, thats probably why the winds haven't gone up much at all yet I guess despite pressure dropping in the last 6hrs.

Yeah, wind was 52mph G 62mph at Dry Tortugas, almost 200 miles away!!!

[KWT]

jinftl, yep that IR image shows the shear wall very well indeed, at the current moment though its not really stopping convection in the western part of the inner core and unless that happens that Ike should be able to strengthen still.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Derek Ortt does 20 knots of wind shear normally expose the LLC from the convection? Systems like Alberto, Arlene, Edouard 2002, matthew 2004, Lee 2005, and a lot more . Why don't 20 knots of shear weaken this, if there was going to be 20 knots of shear.

[jinftl]

If the left side can pull it together like the right...then ike really means business!

jinftl, yep that IR image shows the shear wall very well indeed, at the current moment though its not really stopping convection in the western part of the inner core and unless that happens that Ike should be able to strengthen still.