ATL: Tropical Depression Edouard

[crazycajuncane]

Eduardo should be quite the interesting storm. I don't like it's path at all. The areas affected by Rita in 2005 look to be zero in once again. The quicker it comes on shore the better! If it lingers for a few days and heads west my friends in Galveston have some rough weather ahead.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This is not a depression

I'm sorry this is the last time I stick my foot in my mouth. Crow and chicklets for dinner.

[Wx_Warrior]

Accuwx update:

A large area of showers and thunderstorms that has been parked over the northern Gulf of Mexico has formed into Tropical Depression 5. Tropical Depression 5 is located at 28.2 north, 88.1 west, or about 85 miles southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River. Maximum sustained winds are at 35 mph with a slow movement to the west at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure is 1007 millibars or 29.74 inches. Tropical Depression 5 is expected to slowly strengthen over the next 24 hours and will likely become a tropical storm Sunday night or Monday morning, therefore tropical storm warnings have been posted from the mouth of the Mississippi westward to Intracoastal City, Louisiana. Tropical storm watches are also in effect from Intracoastal City westward to Port O'Connor, Texas.

A large ridge of high pressure parked off to the north of Tropical Depression 5 will be the steering mechanism for the system over the next couple of days. This ridge should steer the Depression westward toward the Texas coast. Landfall, likely at tropical storm strength, is expected to occur very close to the Galveston area either Monday night or Tuesday morning. The main threat from the system, at this point, appears to be locally heavy rain for portions of southern Louisiana and eastern Texas. Two to four inches of rain will be possible with some amounts of 6 inches or higher.

[KWT]

And why would people start worrying?

Because we have a rapidly strengthing storm on our hands that is just in the gulf of Mexico, need to be watched very closely indeed given what Humberto did last year.

also yep almost certain we have Edouard

[SouthFloridawx]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rgb.html

Looks like the beginnings of some decent convection.

[caneman]

Am I missing something? I know that recon supports TS but this thing doesn't like impressive at all on Satellite. Still got time to come together and strengthen though.

[RL3AO]

Am I missing something? I know that recon supports TS but this thing doesn't like impressive at all on Satellite. Still got time to come together and strengthen though.

It doesn't look like a 45kt storm, but recon shows it is.

[KWT]

caneman, this is one of those classic messy looking systems that are actually pretty impressive in strength, I recall gordon of 2000 being fairly ugly but being pretty strong.

[Steve]

Didn't see 1002 this fast, but you know how developing systems are when abutted to shear/dry air. The tenacious ones can get cranking looks deceiving and all. Anyway, suddenly it's cloudy here. I believe there is some banding in the area. I would caution all my peeps in the homeland of Louisiana to watch out the next couple of days. We will be on the eastern side of this system and might see some wrap around stuff, training and certainly some heavy, tropical downpours. I wouldn't want to overplay it but you might seem some 3-5"+. Just follow the local statements and be careful out there.

Steve

[Brent]

Am I missing something? I know that recon supports TS but this thing doesn't like impressive at all on Satellite. Still got time to come together and strengthen though.

Agreed but the plane data overrules satellite. Really don't like what's happening here.

[Dean4Storms]

I just got back from the beach and I was not all that surprised to learn that a TD was indeed out there. Goes to show that even Pro Mets can make the wrong call sometimes as I remember one wanting to cancel Recon. for today. That said, this system has alot of warm untapped SST's to develop over and with the shear not affecting develop at this point I see no reason why a Cat.1 Hurricane would be out of the realm of a real possibility.

[vaffie]

Wow, improving on satellite significantly over just the past half an hour since I went and had a chocolate. Convection enlarging and circularizing. Almost a CDO! At this rate, it could be a hurricane by morning! Not good.

[americanrebel]

I hate it when I am right, this could very easily go to Cat. 3 as it is already go through RI.

This is just my humble opinion.

[Ptarmigan]

the recon is indicating a system undergoing RI

Derek, what makes you think it is going through RI? If so, what strength would it be at, when it makes landfall?

[tailgater]

This is not a depression

I'm sorry this is the last time I stick my foot in my mouth. Crow and chicklets for dinner.

At least your man enough to admit it.

[KWT]

I wouldn't call it a CDO just yet vaffie but its certainly a convective blow up over the center which will only help it to strengthen over the next 6hrs, as if it really need help doing that mind you!

Dean4Storms, I agree no reason why this can't be a hurricane or at least get close given how long its got over water.

[WmE]

I hate it when I am right, this could very easily go to Cat. 3 as it is already go through RI.

This is just my humble opinion.

And on what do you base this opinion? I'd like to know.

[JonathanBelles]

I am personally very surprised at the latest VDM. I have to say that sat pictures should follow.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This thing is very small. No wonder we could not find it or only had small hints of anything. This is like Emily 1999 a little.

[Derek Ortt]

the RI is based upon pressure falls.

Actually, the pressure between passes meets the definition of explosive intensification, which is defined as 3mb/hr