ATL: IKE Discussion

[HouTXmetro]

10 AM Mandatory Evacuation for Freeport and Surfside Texas.

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/hur ... 93276.html

[jlauderdal]

Bye Bye Ike

2 plants knocked over last night and chair blown into the pool, not too shabby for a system that was so far away. Good Luck to the Texans dealing with Ike.

[Sabanic]

Benchmark to watch, as of the 5AM track, Ike isn't suppose to reach the 25th latitude until early Thursday morning (3AM-6AM). I have a feeling that will occur alot sooner today based on where Ike is now and current movement.

I noticed that and actually looks like he isn't supposed to reach it until late morning to mid day Thursday according to the NHC center's forecast track. That would be considerably north of where they have him about 24 hours earlier than expected.

[KWT]

As long as the shear stays where it is jinftl then the western side will stay weak. If the convection starts to expand westward then thats a fair sign that the shear is easing off.

[HouTXmetro]

Cuba and FLA West coast still getting pounded.

[jinftl]

Could the shear have any impact on ike's direction or rate of forward speed?

[KWT]

HouTXmetro, how populated is freeport, I suppose it makes sense given the uncertainty still with Ike.

jinftl, I wouldn't have thought so.

[HouTXmetro]

West side looks to be slightly improving now.

[HouTXmetro]

HouTXmetro, how populated is freeport, I suppose it makes sense given the uncertainty still with Ike.

jinftl, I wouldn't have thought so.

15k-20k

[xironman]

On the wobble watching front Ike appears to be going north of the forecast points. A bit more NW than WNW.

[KWT]

Ok thanks.

In terms of the west side it still looks very flat, pretty clear the shear is still there for now.

Also the recon reports are interesting in that there really isn't that well defined wind passage where the eyewalls are, I wonder just how strong the eyewalls really are right now?

[jinftl]

Still some windy to very windy conditons at 7am across florida
(wind speeds from NWS Miami)

CLEARWATER E14G23
ST PETERSBURG E21
SARASOT E14
PUNTA GORDA E13
MARATHON SE20G33
KEY WEST NAS SE33G43
W PALM BEACH SE20G25
FT LAUDERDALE SE20G29
POMPANO BEACH SE16G23
EVERGLADES CIT SE18G36

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Ok thanks.

In terms of the west side it still looks very flat, pretty clear the shear is still there for now.

Also the recon reports are interesting in that there really isn't that well defined wind passage where the eyewalls are, I wonder just how strong the eyewalls really are right now?

The storm is being undercut by 10-20 knots of shear...The eye wall is being blasted like Gustavs. "If" this shear increased lets say to 30 knots, I would not be suprized to see the LLC become exposed. But anyways, I see the decreasing shear ahead of it, so the environement could become better for it. So expect slow strengthing.

[gubyw1]

Convection is really, really strong on both west and east sides and mostly in the north, but I can't see any eye in Ike. That's probably why the plane never found the really strong winds.
Once a real eye forms this thing will have very strong winds. Ike looks like it's been moving 320 degrees now for a while.

[gubyw1]

Convection is really, really strong on both west and east sides and mostly in the north, but I can't see any eye in Ike. That's probably why the plane never found the really strong winds.
Once a real eye forms this thing will have very strong winds. Ike looks like it's been moving 320 degrees now for a while.

[HouTXmetro]

Convection is really, really strong on both west and east sides and mostly in the north, but I can't see any eye in Ike. That's probably why the plane never found the really strong winds.
Once a real eye forms this thing will have very strong winds. Ike looks like it's been moving 320 degrees now for a while.

Will be watching for Westward correction.

[HurricaneQueen]

Even though we are approx. 275 miles from the center of Ike, it has been coming down in buckets (meteorological term ) for hours here on the SW FL coast. Winds aren't too bad but it is blustery with some thunder. Woke up with a pounder of a headache that I believe is weather related. It can't be from sitting in front of a compter for 18 hours a day!

Good luck to all in the path of Ike. Making that decision to evacuate is a tough one.

Lynn

[KWT]

Indeed Matt the shear is really preventing that western quadrant from getting going. It will be interesting to see whether the shear does ease off, looking at the map Derek put up earlier there seems to be less shear a little further to the west.

[Weatherfreak000]

(This is from 10PM Advisory)
INITIAL 10/0300Z 23.2N 84.3W 70 KT
12HR VT 10/1200Z 23.9N 85.5W 75 KT

This is the position at 5...

INITIAL 10/0900Z 23.5N 84.9W 75 KT

Moving only a touch slightly less North and West then it's supposed to be. If anyone else saw a slowdown.

[dcameron]

HouTXmetro, how populated is freeport, I suppose it makes sense given the uncertainty still with Ike.

jinftl, I wouldn't have thought so.

Lake Jackson(where I live) is 3-4 miles north of Freeport and has another 25-30 thousand. Freeport is also home to one of the largest single chemical complexes in North America....

Don