ATL: IKE Discussion

[Cookiely]

I can't get over how Ike is expanding in size. Its amazing.
http://weather.myfoxtampabay.com/maps/W ... _gulf.html

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Mid level shear

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... idshr.html

[jinftl]

Latest windfield...hurricane force winds are pretty small area....for now

[cycloneye]

From 8 AM Advisory=Moving NW at the moment,but a WNW track should resume later today.

AT 800 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 23.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.3 WEST OR ABOUT 145 MILES...230
KM...NORTH OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA AND ABOUT 430 MILES...695 KM
...SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...BUT A
WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK IS EXPECTED TO RESUME LATER TODAY AND THEN TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48
HOURS.

[HouTXmetro]

overall, convection around the CDO is increasing to the west.

[Smurfwicked]

Latest windfield...hurricane force winds are pretty small area....for now

image

Yeah, but the TS force wind field has nearly doubled in size since last night!

I'm surprised that they still have this hitting so far down the Texas coast. I honestly expected the track to be close enough to call for Evacs in Galveston by noon today. Looks to me like that pocket of dry air to the west is forcing Ike to move NW and its pretty far east of the next forecast point, but then again I could be wrong where center actually is. Pro mets still expecting shifts to the right? I'm concerned about how much time officials will have to properly evacuate people if needed.

[jinftl]

I think anyone who is in forecast cone...and probably hurricane watch in time...needs to assume the eye will pass over them. If someone decides not to evacuate in Galveston who is in an evacuation zone because they think 'ike is going to corpus'.....that is not advisable or wise. Remember that's what Punta Gorda said about Charley going to Tampa...even though hurricane warnings were posted in both cities.

I'm worried that G'ston may not do an evac. Considering what the keys saw yesterday, I wouldn't want to be on an Island on the E. side of Ike. All of that assumes that he gets to be a major of course. I just hope they will still err on the side of caution.

[jinftl]

Tropical storm wind field has been pretty constant for last 3 advisories.....but it was huge yesterday as well....esp considering the wind even south florida saw being so far from the center.


5pm Tuesday advisory
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 968 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT.......100NE 75SE 30SW 90NW.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE 100SW 150NW.

11pm advisory
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 967 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT.......100NE 75SE 30SW 90NW.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE 100SW 150NW.

Current advisory at 5am wed.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 963 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT.......100NE 75SE 30SW 90NW.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE 100SW 150NW.

Latest windfield...hurricane force winds are pretty small area....for now

image

Yeah, but the TS force wind field has nearly doubled in size since last night!

I'm surprised that they still have this hitting so far down the Texas coast. I honestly expected the track to be close enough to call for Evacs in Galveston by noon today. Looks to me like that pocket of dry air to the west is forcing Ike to move NW and its pretty far east of the next forecast point, but then again I could be wrong where center actually is. Pro mets still expecting shifts to the right? I'm concerned about how much time officials will have to properly evacuate people if needed.

[gboudx]

Wednesday early AM update from Jeff Lidner.

viewtopic.php?f=29&t=103096&p=1821633#p1821633

[cheezyWXguy]

Wow look at Ike now...he's so much bigger now, though I cant say I didnt expect it. Looks like he went through an erc, is that right? I gotta say, Ike is reminding me of the way Katrina looked towards the end of her erc before she bombed...scary stuff.

[KWT]

Warm spot starting to show up on IR now, need to see it last a little while but if it does then that may well be the eye. Interestingly this warm is on the eastern side of the deep convection:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SATR ... m16ir.html

[HURAKAN]

[jinftl]

luckily ike is contending with some shear that katrina didnt

Wow look at Ike now...he's so much bigger now, though I cant say I didnt expect it. Looks like he went through an erc, is that right? I gotta say, Ike is reminding me of the way Katrina looked towards the end of her erc before she bombed...scary stuff.

[cheezyWXguy]

luckily ike is contending with some shear that katrina didnt

Wow look at Ike now...he's so much bigger now, though I cant say I didnt expect it. Looks like he went through an erc, is that right? I gotta say, Ike is reminding me of the way Katrina looked towards the end of her erc before she bombed...scary stuff.

what shear?

[dwg71]

VDM 2 hours ago to most recent shows 1 minute north and 16 minutes west.

VDM 3 hours to cuurent shows 11 minutes north and 30 minutes west.

VDM 4 hours ago to current shows 20 minutes north and 38 west.

looks to have resumed wnw track already. last two hours due west.

[jasons2k]

Sorry for the double post but I'm in a hurry & I would like to mention here as well:

I just want to point something out with the models. The GFS has shown some more consistency in the track but the concerning thing is not necessarily the "what" but the "how". As I posted late last night, look what it did to the trough out west. I read a comment by a pro met somewhere else and he analyzed 4 different solutions on the previous 4 runs up to & including last night's 00Z.

Sorry, I just don't trust it until it gets some consisenty with the upper air features. Don't just look at the track.

If you want consistency, look at the Euro and the UKMET. They are both consistent and they are both consistently NE of the guidance and GFS.

I'm getting really concerned Houston-Galveston is going to get caught with their pants down if Galveston doesn't pull the trigger on evacs today.

[KWT]

what shear?

There is some shear roughly aorund 15kts right now from the upper high right near Mexico right now which is preventing Ike from really exploding, loook at the western quadrant and see that its a little flat.

Hurakan, doesn't look too bad right now, still seems to be strengthening slowly.

[jinftl]

derek's mention of sheer from earlier this am.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8wxc.GIF

its not dry air. The thing is under 20KT of westerly shear

[dwg71]

Sorry for the double post but I'm in a hurry & I would like to mention here as well:

I just want to point something out with the models. The GFS has shown some more consistency in the track but the concerning thing is not necessarily the "what" but the "how". As I posted late last night, look what it did to the trough out west. I read a comment by a pro met somewhere else and he analyzed 4 different solutions on the previous 4 runs up to & including last night's 00Z.

Sorry, I just don't trust it until it gets some consisenty with the upper air features. Don't just look at the track.

If you want consistency, look at the Euro and the UKMET. They are both consistent and they are both consistently NE of the guidance and GFS.

I'm getting really concerned Houston-Galveston is going to get caught with their pants down if Galveston doesn't pull the trigger on evacs today.

just my amateur interpretation of the water vapor loop, shows the ull heading due south in california and the trough less intrusive. lets see what a met has to say.

[jinftl]

can see shear well in this satellite pic from this am...missing left side...still getting stronger though....if he starts to wrap around on left side...watch out!

Maybe a little hint of the eye returning on latest IR images: