ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Stangfriik]

Some recent effects from (semi-from) Fay

Although strictly speaking Fay's influence is not entirely established over the South Florida Peninsula just yet, I find it worthwhile to pass-along today's NWSFO storm reports...

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
826 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0645 PM FLOOD CAPE CORAL 26.58N 81.99W
08/17/2008 LEE FL FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

FIRE RESCUE REPORTED MODERATE STREET FLOODING IN CAPE
CORAL.

0650 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 1 NW NORTH FORT MYERS 26.72N 81.90W
08/17/2008 LEE FL PUBLIC

FUNNEL CLOUD REPORTED JUST NORTHWEST OF SUNCOAST ESTATES.

And from Key West NWSFO... wind gusts to 41-mph, Marathon, 43-mph, Key West, and 48-mph, Key Largo with an outflow boundary from weakened convection that formed along Fay's peripheries earlier today.

- Jay

Wow Jay, my family must be having quite the time in the Key's then. They arrived there yesterday even though I told them that there would be a evac order either that day or today. Even though there is an order, they said that since they are on the opposite side of the island (not sure which one they are on), it should be okay. I kept reminding my mother that they were on an island not in central Florida but she said they would be fine. This coming from one of the most paranoid mothers out there so I'm not sure what they are thinking

Well, these wind gusts from the Keys were brief and relatively isolated. While conditions will certainly deteriorate throughout the next 24 hours for those islands, they are certainly prepared for storms of Fay's likely intensity.

- Jay

Actually this is the first time I have checked in as I was moving all day and to my amazement, the intensity has been downgraded quite a bit so I actually do agree with what you say. The last time I checked, it was supposed to be a hurricane much earlier than that, at least I thought

[senorpepr]

I've added several Florida charts. These charts will stay locked in the current position throughout the storm. They'll be updated every 30 minutes.


(I realize at press time, some of these charts are not available... the script is currently processing them.)

[Bgator]

NHC has it moving NW at 305 degrees at 11.

[Lowpressure]

to me it looks like Fay's main energy is heading right towards Southern FL (SE FL and FL Keys)...but the center could be moving WNW-NW....its hard to say.

I'm seeing the same thing...and if the center is in fact moving along with the energy than South Floridians are going to have a surprise tomorrow as it's clearly heading in that direction.

Why would they be surprised with watches and warnings in place for over 12 hours now in some places?

[cpdaman]

There are no mountains where Fay is about to make landfall.

actually there is, but it is relatively small, note hurrakan's snipet said, "mostly flat rolling hills" mosty meaning except for a mountain peak (Guajaibon peak) right where the LLC will dodge around. and yes i was fooled a bit by the cuban radar showing higher elevations which as cycloneye pointed out are mostly just raised flatland. So perhaps i will back off of my "death over the mountains of west -central cuba) thought lol, but a 50x 50 area of mountainous terrain is not good for a storm to slowly drift over, but perhaps she will go west of them like the NHC forecast calls for . time will tell and so will recon

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

If it is turning to the northwest then it will have a long track over those mountains. I expect any innercore it is developing now will be destroyed. If it is tracking like that radar show it to be it will go over that high mountain.

Again,Central Cuba is Flat.

Western Part is but the radar shows high mountains to its north. In if it is really moving more northward then expected then it will have to deal with them.

[Evil Jeremy]

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 80.6W AT 18/0300Z
AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 80.3W

[gatorcane]

to me it looks like Fay's main energy is heading right towards Southern FL (SE FL and FL Keys)...but the center could be moving WNW-NW....its hard to say.

I'm seeing the same thing...and if the center is in fact moving along with the energy than South Floridians are going to have a surprise tomorrow as it's clearly heading in that direction.

Why would they be surprised with watches and warnings in place for over 12 hours now in some places?

I'm not sure why SE FL was ever pulled from the cone in the first place? Anyway you never know NHC may keep the cone as is....and leave SE FL out of it at the 11pm EST

[AdamFirst]

If the NNW/NW movement is true Fay is going right into the Escambray Mountains.

The tallest peak is a little over 3,000 feet.

Other than that it's a cakewalk, probably.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Escambray_Mountains

[Sanibel]

A close up examination of the shortwave floater makes it look like a NNW wobble has taken place and Fay is right of trop points - but still on the general NHC track.

[Jason_B]

to me it looks like Fay's main energy is heading right towards Southern FL (SE FL and FL Keys)...but the center could be moving WNW-NW....its hard to say.

I'm seeing the same thing...and if the center is in fact moving along with the energy than South Floridians are going to have a surprise tomorrow as it's clearly heading in that direction.

Why would they be surprised with watches and warnings in place for over 12 hours now in some places?

Well because today the consensus has been further north, and now even SE FL looks like it may be a lot more involved in this.

[storms in NC]

Can a pro met tell us what they think the current motion is?

Jay is a pro he said NNW

Thanks much, Storms in NC! I only wish I were an official "pro" so I could collect a salary from playing with radar and satellite imagery all day. Then again, if I were paid, I might become a work-a-holic.

Jay

You not in school any more? I thought that was wheat you were going to School for? Sorry Thought you were a pro.

[fci]

Yeah...looking at it again. I think SE FL goes back in the cone for sure at the 11pm EST advisory. She is north of the forecast point already and looks to be NNW movment. If not there must be something I don't see. I will still guess a shift right of the line by about 60 miles or so cutting up the center of the peninsula now...

From a "continuity" point of view, I doubt that there would be a radical shift in one advisory to include SE FL in the cone.
A slight shift? Maybe.

[Weatherboy1]

While the exact tracking in the short term may be unclear, I think it's perfectly clear that Fay is strengthening as we watch. Obviously, land interaction is going to put a halt to that soon. But if Fay finally develops a stronger inner core -- and can keep it together over Cuba -- she could strengthen significantly once she hits the FL straits.

[lbvbl]

I think PBC schools should be closed. Dont wanna take any risks

I have to admit that I am predisposed to be a critic of closing schools, however; tomorrow is not a key day for PBC in regards to Fay and any track change.
It is Tuesday and they already announced that they will make a decision by Noon on Monday regarding school for Tuesdayl
No need to close them on Monday, IMO

Yeah I agree, I was just joking around with that comment, although I would have loved it if they did close schools tomorrow. What do you suspect the chances are for school being closed tues?

[Lowpressure]

Yeah...looking at it again. I think SE FL goes back in the cone for sure at the 11pm EST advisory. She is north of the forecast point already and looks to be NNW movment. If not there must be something I don't see. I will still guess a shift right of the line by about 60 miles or so cutting up the center of the peninsula now...

Gator, I would not think they go NNW, based on a radar shot. I think you may be overcompensating here. JMO. It appears to be turning, but NNW might be a stretch. I guess we will se in less than 20 minutes though. Love your posting, just do not really agree this time.

[Javlin]

Looks tough to call a direction really but like WX57 mention and someone else the cloud pattern on WV loop says Northerly should be the prevailing movement.One thing though ULL low to the ENE and one small one to the W along with some zonal flow to the N might be creating some of that N look??I have to say that it is really looking more like one can forget about the track any further W.Fay had my attention just that location,track and probably time frame From Camille to now makes one weary to say the least.

[Extremeweatherguy]

11pm advisory - Fay is moving NORTHWEST at 10mph.

[NEXRAD]

How many times in a sheared environment here just recently up the Carolina coast (Forgot the TS Name) did you see radar showing what appeared to be the LLC but when you went to the visibles found it to be well off?

This is a good point when working with radar imagery at longer ranges, however the Cuba site is not unreasonably far from Fay's center. Also, the shortwave IR suggests the center is moving a bit more northwards based on the low level cloud bands west of the MCS.

- Jay

[caneman]

11pm advisory - Fay is moving NORTHWEST at 10mph.

]]

yes so maybe we can stop with the wobble watching and talk about the storm synoptics, potential strength etc..