ATL: IKE Discussion

[HouTXmetro]

Cloud tops warming? Center Due West or South of West? just wondering.

[KWT]

Yeah Jasons the ECM and UKMO have been pretty consitant on a track a little to the NE of the GFS and given Ike is a tiny bit north of the NHC path right now its quite possible they are on the right track.

[HURAKAN]

[inda_iwall]

After looking at WV loop, I just do not see it moving west any time soon, the wweakness is nnw of it, and the western shear I would think would keep it from moving west as well, am I wrong, seems the steering currents are changing quicker than expected. I still think this is Houston to NOLA storm, remember they had this thing slamming into Sflorida at one point and it was 3 days out, they even thought it was going to Carolinas possibly, if I go back over where even Derek, who is pretty reliable, had it going fro forecast to forecast, even he had no clue where it was going past two days even.

[KWT]

Hurakan, that eye is where the warm spot has emerged on IR in the last couple of hours, does seem like a shallow eye is trying to develop again. The overall apperence is better then last night, at least it has a CDO now!

[THead]

Things change quick don't they? Yesterday I thought the forecast was for practically perfect upper air conditions, zero shear, in Ike's path? Hopefully it will keep him from getting too out of control, but I see the NHC intensity forecast hasn't changed much at all since last night, still have him at 105 kts in 48 hours.

48HR VT 12/0600Z 25.8N 92.0W 105 KT

Good luck everyone in the path, with your evacs and final preps, we'll be thinking of you all.

[deltadog03]

SFC CENTER VERTICAL WITH FLIGHT LEVEL CENTER

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

I think some of you are looking at the wrong place for the eye. Ike still has a very tiny eye. Its currently only 10miles wide. The big spot that has been warming is not where the eye is. that is dry air or just warmer cloud tops. The eye is now visible on the latest IR shot to the left of the big area that has been warming.

[KWT]

Which suggests delta whatever shear there is isn't currently effecting the inner core of Ike.

The other thing to note is a dropsonde just found a central pressure of 957mbs so pressure is still dropping away quite readily now and winds just seem to be starting to pick up a little now closer to the the eye...

[apocalypt-flyer]

Yes, 84 knots flight level. The 957 however are really quite impressive. The winds should catch up sooner rather than later.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Ike is already having an affect on Tampa Bay area. We've just had a few showers and blustery conditions since yesterday afternoon, but the real telltale affect is the high tide this morning! It was about to breach the sea wall on my way into work at the Treasure Island Causeway, and it was still about an hour from high tide.

The rest of today's tides are lower. Tomorrow morning's high tide is progged to be even higher than this morning's, so with any luck, Ike will scoot quickly away. OF course, that won't happen, so I expect tomorrow's high tide to be worse than today's. We may see the walls breached and some minor beach flooding.

Again, the media hasn't told locals about the possibility of any beach flooding at all. Maybe its only 1-3 ft. tidal surge caused by the increased surf and wind, but that is a lot when you are only 4 ft. above mean sea level.

They have been speaking about a lot of increased surf and rip currents though.

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

[KWT]

Eye becoming more obvious on IR now and also convection deepening in the eastern eyewall...

Looks like finally the eyewall is starting to become more obvious on the sat imagery and thats being reflected in the recon flights starting to find higher winds at last near the center.

[linkerweather]

Ike is already having an affect on Tampa Bay area. We've just had a few showers and blustery conditions since yesterday afternoon, but the real telltale affect is the high tide this morning! It was about to breach the sea wall on my way into work at the Treasure Island Causeway, and it was still about an hour from high tide.

The rest of today's tides are lower. Tomorrow morning's high tide is progged to be even higher than this morning's, so with any luck, Ike will scoot quickly away. OF course, that won't happen, so I expect tomorrow's high tide to be worse than today's. We may see the walls breached and some minor beach flooding.

Again, the media hasn't told locals about the possibility of any beach flooding at all. Maybe its only 1-3 ft. tidal surge caused by the increased surf and wind, but that is a lot when you are only 4 ft. above mean sea level.

They have been speaking about a lot of increased surf and rip currents though.

Have you guys stopped watching 9?
I have been showing the water levels all morning at St Pete talking about 1 to 3 foot rise above the already high tide this morning.

[attallaman]

Is there a possibility that the ridge which is going to be steering Ike towards TX could weaken or retreat to the E putting the upper TX coast or W/LA under the gun or is the ridge locked in on cruise control to steer Ike towards central TX or lower TX?

[HouTXmetro]

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

8 AM model updates.... GFS appears to be out to lunch. Might be affecting the HWRF and GFDL. Keep in mind the old Reliable EURO is close to the UKMET track.

[Texas Snowman]

Is this the dreaded "fist" of intensification?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/avn-l.jpg

[amanda]

Ike is already having an affect on Tampa Bay area. We've just had a few showers and blustery conditions since yesterday afternoon, but the real telltale affect is the high tide this morning! It was about to breach the sea wall on my way into work at the Treasure Island Causeway, and it was still about an hour from high tide.

The rest of today's tides are lower. Tomorrow morning's high tide is progged to be even higher than this morning's, so with any luck, Ike will scoot quickly away. OF course, that won't happen, so I expect tomorrow's high tide to be worse than today's. We may see the walls breached and some minor beach flooding.

Again, the media hasn't told locals about the possibility of any beach flooding at all. Maybe its only 1-3 ft. tidal surge caused by the increased surf and wind, but that is a lot when you are only 4 ft. above mean sea level.

They have been speaking about a lot of increased surf and rip currents though.

Have you guys stopped watching 9?
I have been showing the water levels all morning at St Pete talking about 1 to 3 foot rise above the already high tide this morning.

i still watch baynews9. i watched the tropical update at 8:49 this morning!

[LizzardInFlorida]

I've been watching Josh - you guys are doing a great job as usual. BN9 also just did a special segment from the beach on rip currents.

[Stormcenter]

After looking at WV loop, I just do not see it moving west any time soon, the wweakness is nnw of it, and the western shear I would think would keep it from moving west as well, am I wrong, seems the steering currents are changing quicker than expected. I still think this is Houston to NOLA storm, remember they had this thing slamming into Sflorida at one point and it was 3 days out, they even thought it was going to Carolinas possibly, if I go back over where even Derek, who is pretty reliable, had it going fro forecast to forecast, even he had no clue where it was going past two days even.

Please read the NHC discussion. Those guys sound pretty confident and they have a track record to back it up. What about you?