ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[HURAKAN]

Furthermore, because of the geography of Texas, the storm now has more water before reaching land. The further north it gets, the more Texas's coastline bends to the west until a certain point, of course.

[lrak]

AFM how far north could this get if the high doesn't build back in in time?
Aric---I agree about 970mbs sounds about right at the moment.

[HouTXmetro]

I wouldn't be suprised, in fact I wouldn't be surprised if it made it up to Galveston Bay.

It's already west of Galveston Bay.

If you know Hurricanes, a lot of times hurricanes make a jog to the East before making landfall.

Again, Galveston is not in the cone. If that happened the entire NHC staff would be fired. (well maybe not) FEMA flashback

OH OH, pinhole eye on satellite!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I will guest 965 millibar pressure with this recon, with 83 knot flight level winds.

The reason I believe that it did not have strong winds the last recon was because of it was expanding. Now it is letting loose, but it is running out of time.

I will also guest that this will be 95 knots with 958 millibars at landfall. Now that is a guest in this storm could bit me again.

[Chacor]

Okay, heading home from work now. Will be back around 7 am CDT (8 pm here) - and hopefully the storm won't have bombed out by then. Have a friend about 45 minutes north of Brownsville right now, really worried for him.

[KWT]

Yeahs thats true Hurakan and the further north it gets the longer it will have over water anyway but depsite that it is true its starting to run low on real estate so tospeak.
Still as we've seen before these systems that are bursting and got deep convection tend to carry on developing right upto landfall.

As for the eye I wonder if land friction is actually helping it to tighten and contract the eye?

[paintplaye]

I wouldn't be suprised, in fact I wouldn't be surprised if it made it up to Galveston Bay.

It's already west of Galveston Bay.

If you know Hurricanes, a lot of times hurricanes make a jog to the East before making landfall.

Again, Galveston is not in the cone. If that happened the entire NHC staff would be fired. (well maybe not) FEMA flashback[/quote]

If this thing hits Galveston, I will donate $200 to this board lol.

[americanrebel]

If it continues North it is not a 200 mile jog to the East just about 50.

[KWT]

Matt, who knows will the winds be ablwe to ramp up in time before landfall is the main question. Anyway recon has just found 78kts at flight level heading into the NE eyewall.

[ekal]

103000 2558N 09617W 6963 02982 9850 +092 +080 137078 080 058 006 00

80 knots FL. Still probably not the max, either.

[HURAKAN]

[KWT]

Yep ekal still a little bit away from the eye still so probably will get a higher report then that through and also center pass coming up, I'd guess its got to be down into the low low 970's now.

ps, Ekal pressure was 985 at the time of the 80kts reading.

[HarlequinBoy]

Eye clearly visible on nighttime visible. Should be too long until the sun is up - already getting light here in Mississippi.

[paintplaye]

reports of 54mph wind gusts at SPI

[KWT]

Yep HarlequinBoy looks very good right now, eye looks pretty decent as well as of now, I'm really looking foward to the vis imagery.

Also this system must be helped out by the Dmax I'd have thought as well.

[HouTXmetro]

Could be a long day for Southeast Texas. Training storms from the outerbands are setting up shop along the TX/Louisiana coast. Main Concern: Flooding

[littlevince]

[JonathanBelles]

star to butterfly!

[HURAKAN]

Patrick Star!

[ekal]

star to butterfly!

I see a fan now. Do those mesovortices contain tornadoes, or just stronger winds?