ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[Air Force Met]

AFM how far north could this get if the high doesn't build back in in time?
Aric---I agree about 970mbs sounds about right at the moment.

I think it will bend back westward real quick...I still see Cameron County getting a piece of the eye...

and a handfull of those meso's rotating around.

[KWT]

Wow quite impressive wind gust paintplaye, not surprising given the outer reaches of the CDO is now slap bang over the area, expect TS force gusts at Bro like that soon as well as the storm shield comes in.

[Normandy]

Wow at the meso storms, they are VERY intense and have amazing rotation....I wonder if those cells contain tornadoes.

[Air Force Met]

star to butterfly!

I see a fan now. Do those mesovortices contain tornadoes, or just stronger winds?

Both.

Remember Andrew? A lot of that was caused by meso's.

Not saying this is at that intensity...but those meso winds can go up a category.

[KWT]

I think it will bend back westward real quick...I still see Cameron County getting a piece of the eye...

and a handfull of those meso's rotating around.

Ok thats cool just a matter of time then, still i'm not liking those mesos, could well see some much higher winds gusts with those, if anywhere gets hammered by one of those at landfall gusts upto major status is probably quite probable.

[ekal]

Code: Select all

103100 2556N 09621W 6970 02937 9816 +089 +080 136083 086 063 010 00

86 knots FL, with 969 mb extrapolated in the eye.

[paintplaye]

Could be a long day for Southeast Texas. Training storms from the outerbands are setting up shop along the TX/Louisiana coast. Main Concern: Flooding

I agree this could be a long day. I am not liking how this looks.

[KWT]

Recon has just found flight level winds of 86kts at flight level, pressure down to an estimated 969mbs!

[paintplaye]

Recon has just found flight level winds of 86kts at flight level, pressure down to an estimated 969mbs!

Dang!

[WmE]

Wow, that is a very low pressure. It almost certainly has to be a Cat2.

[Air Force Met]

If it continues North it is not a 200 mile jog to the East just about 50.

1) It's not moving north...so there can not be any continuing north...

2) It isn't going to happen...

3) I think you may be trolling...if you aren't...listen to those who know what they are talking about...it isn't going to happen. It would be the worst forecast in modern history and a complete collapse of every computer model...even the crappy ones we don't look at (but that many people on Stork 2K like to consult).

[ekal]

star to butterfly!

I see a fan now. Do those mesovortices contain tornadoes, or just stronger winds?

Both.

Remember Andrew? A lot of that was caused by meso's.

Not saying this is at that intensity...but those meso winds can go up a category.

Ugh. Not good at all.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Flight level is 84 knots and SMRF is 86 knots.

[ekal]

Flight level is 84 knots and SMRF is 86 knots.

Not seeing any 86 knots SFMR.

[HURAKAN]

[americanrebel]

If it continues North it is not a 200 mile jog to the East just about 50.

1) It's not moving north...so there can not be any continuing north...

2) It isn't going to happen...

3) I think you may be trolling...if you aren't...listen to those who know what they are talking about...it isn't going to happen. It would be the worst forecast in modern history and a complete collapse of every computer model...even the crappy ones we don't look at (but that many people on Stork 2K like to consult).

How can you say it is not moving N?

[paintplaye]

If it continues North it is not a 200 mile jog to the East just about 50.

1) It's not moving north...so there can not be any continuing north...

2) It isn't going to happen...

3) I think you may be trolling...if you aren't...listen to those who know what they are talking about...it isn't going to happen. It would be the worst forecast in modern history and a complete collapse of every computer model...even the crappy ones we don't look at (but that many people on Stork 2K like to consult).

Haha agree. I think we still have a problem here in houston though. The setup is for some flooding today. Don't you think?

[Thunder44]

There is going to be an intermediate advisory at 7am EDT.

[paintplaye]

Gust of 63 in SPI

[KWT]

Actually AFM it did move north breifly according to the NHC estiamtes but I think its probably back on a more stable WNW heading now and besides during that little northerly stint it only made about 8 miles so its not a massive deal really.

Really impressive Hurakan, certainly looks like Dolly is trying to make it to category-2 before land.

Also yeah further up the coast flooding is a threat I think.