ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[fasterdisaster]

I really don't see how this is moving north you guys, it's definitely going NW.

[Dean4Storms]

NHC not so sure about that NW movement.


AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE REPORTS NEAR 0000 UTC SHOWED LITTLE MOTION
SINCE THE EARLIER FIXES. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND CUBAN RADAR
DATA IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE CENTER IS ILL-DEFINED AT THE
MOMENT...AND SURFACE SYNOPTIC DATA SUGGEST THAT THE CIRCULATION IS
SOMEWHAT ELONGATED FROM EAST TO WEST. STRONGEST CONVECTION IS
OCCURRING JUST TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER.
INITIAL MOTION IS A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN 305/9.

[lbvbl]

so no change on the track then, huh?

Slightly further east. Landfall now expected near St. Petersburg.

oh yeah you're right.. I think I looked at the track too early and still saw the 5pm one

[Sanibel]

Hello! D-max and core intensification. There's your SST's finally showing up:

[tolakram]

AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.6 WEST OR ABOUT 170
MILES...275 KM...SOUTHEAST OF HAVANA CUBA AND ABOUT 235 MILES...375
KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...AND A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 1 TO 2 DAYS. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...FAY IS EXPECTED TO CROSS WESTERN CUBA EARLY ON
MONDAY AND MOVE NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS MONDAY NIGHT.

My unofficial tracking map:

[Clipper96]

Could someone refresh my memory - how long did it take Charley to get from Cuba to Florida landfall? If this forecast pans out, Fay will have a much longer time to intensify.

[funster]

Fay appears ultimately headed toward the Buckeye state - passing over the Smokey mountains where it could dump lots of rain.

[Sanibel]

Charley 22-23mph forward speed. Fay 9mph.

[AL Chili Pepper]

If the last GFS is right, the ridge will build back in and basically stall Fay over GA for a couple of days. Could be a big rain event taking shape.

[ConvergenceZone]

Well, the good news is that if it DOES shift east into south florida, it's very highly unlikely that we will have to worry about a hurricane at all...Because it's not looking that much better, it could just go into Cuba with 50 to 55 MPH winds and then emerge Cuba with 50 mph winds, spend a short time over water trying to organize, and then come ashore south Florida with anywhere between 50 mph and 65 mph at best.... (just my opinion)...... Of course, that's ony if it shift east to the southern tip of Florida or points further east...

[tgenius]

I suspect when I awake tomm morning Miami will be back in cone and the models will shift east again...

[SouthFLTropics]

If the last GFS is right, the ridge will build back in and basically stall Fay over GA for a couple of days. Could be a big rain event taking shape.

That could be a good thing for them. The lakes up there are bone dry right now and they could use all of the rain they could get...I'm sure that they are saying bring it on...




SFT

[Clipper96]

Charley 22-23mph forward speed. Fay 9mph.

Wow. That's super slow. This has to be one of the diciest forecasts the NHC has ever had to perform. The right edge of the cone is TS up the Everglades, the left edge of the cone is Frederick.

[tolakram]

Sat loop:
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_1


The top of Fay:

[cpdaman]

i spy more NW motion , then opposed to my NNW drift that i saw for a few hours.

[JonathanBelles]

Those isobars/streamlines again are my only complaint. I cant see florida underneath it.

[txwatcher91]

This shows NNW IMO, and latest high-res Key west radar agrees.
http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... AXw01a.gif

[Sanibel]

Cuba will weaken Fay if it crosses in the thicker part from this potential more NW track. Maybe landfall closer to Bay Of Pigs.

[HURAKAN]

Pretty intense t-storms.

[tgenius]

Pretty intense t-storms.

Sandy,
what are you expecting to wake up to tomm?