ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[ALhurricane]

114630 2549N 09637W 6969 02855 9661 +147 +090 172010 012 000 005 03

extra: 966 mb

Dolly is certainly strengthening rather rapidly mow. IMO, NHC needs to upgrade at the next advisory.

That's an understatement.

But Avila has the seat..."No Data" Avila...

Sorry guys...getting very hard to hide my frustration...especially since I've been in on all the State and Fema calls that took this as no big deal because the NHC was only forecasting a 1.

IMO, officials should always prepare for one category higher than the forecast solely based on the error in intensity forecasting. It troubles me they are not taking this seriously. They are going to have major problems down there with a rapidly intensifying hurricane (i.e. much higher gusts).

I also have not seen too many 967mb Cat 1 hurricanes, regardless of the surrounding pressure pattern.

[HURAKAN]

It should of been 97W by now, WTH? Whats holding it out over the water?

Dolly is in weak wind currents at the moment causing the storm to slow down a lot. A high pressure should push the storm later today more to the west. Very similar to Emily in 2005 in the weather pattern.

[KWT]

Yep I agree ALhurricane I think with such a deep pressure the winds are going to try and catch up with that and that may even occur at landfall which would result in mixing the flight level winds pretty much down to the surface, esp in the gusts.

I just hope some people haven't underestimated what a cat-1 can do again.

Also yep steering currents are pretty weak right now so hence why its not really moving, high pressure should build back in and finally shove it off to the west.

[HURAKAN]

A more definite movement to the NW is easily visible in radar.

[Derek Ortt]

114630 2549N 09637W 6969 02855 9661 +147 +090 172010 012 000 005 03

extra: 966 mb

Dolly is certainly strengthening rather rapidly mow. IMO, NHC needs to upgrade at the next advisory.

That's an understatement.

But Avila has the seat..."No Data" Avila...

Sorry guys...getting very hard to hide my frustration...especially since I've been in on all the State and Fema calls that took this as no big deal because the NHC was only forecasting a 1.

However, as a scientist, Avila can only go with the data. 80KT seems like a good estimate right now, taking into consideration the dropsonde

[ekal]

Ob update: Peak sustained winds at BRO during this event still 42 knots.

The 11:53z ob from Port Isabel, however, has not arrived. Hopefully the anemometer has not been knocked out already.

[lrak]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=ptit2

Port Isabel has a NNW, which indicates the storm center should be somewhat north of the Brownsville/S. Padre resort area.

[Air Force Met]

I also have not seen too many 967mb Cat 1 hurricanes, regardless of the surrounding pressure pattern.

I've never seen a 967mb Cat 1...especially one that was bombing out. I could see a cat one with that pressure if it was filling rapidly and over cold waters...

But not this. And what's more...they got 82 kts from a dropsounde...1 kt before the cut-off of Cat 2...and they (he)didn't even bump the winds.

[chadtm80]

[KWT]

Yep Derek thats probably as high as the NHC can go with the highest winds at 82kts the surface. Still I wouldn;t be surprised to see a wind report in the east quadrant get high for a cat-2 to be justified right before landfall given the way the pressure has fallen over the last 6hrs or so...winds surely are going to have to catch up with that.

Edit, yep 91kts, the NHC really are going to have to raise the winds to 80kts now theres no way they can hold that back, its close to 85kts if you believe that its pretty much mixing down to the surface with the explosive deepening going on, I think conversion rate of 0.90, maybe even 0.95 would be useable here.

[lrak]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42020

Also this buoy is still due east, if it is going NW, shouldn't this station start to report some southerly component to the wind direction?

[Normandy]

Unfortunately, this will fall really hard on the NHC. Many, many, MANY people are going to be upset when they wake up tomorrow and find themselves facing a borderline major hurricane. Radar signature is very very impressive and continues to get better.

[chadtm80]

[lrak]

Unfortunately, this will fall really hard on the NHC. Many, many, MANY people are going to be upset when they wake up tomorrow and find themselves facing a borderline major hurricane. Radar signature is very very impressive and continues to get better.

Tomorrow?

[Normandy]

I meant this morning, sorry. The eyewall also appears to be more circular now as well.

[HarlequinBoy]

[hurricanefloyd5]

If the mb Pressure gets down to the 950's range then anyone here agree they should upgrade to a weak Cat.3 because if the MB drops that far the the winds would be too light for a MB pressure to dropp that low!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[KWT]

Normandy, data isn't there to suggest a category-2 though I think this probably will come in with the forace of one even if its not offically upgraded but we will see about that, I think its going to be a close call as to whether recon finds the winds to justify raising this to category 2....in a funny way reminds me of Dean when we had it nearly making landfall and recon was trying to find the winds to justify upgraded it to cat-5...

[lrak]

I meant this morning, sorry. The eyewall also appears to be more circular now as well.

I'm really worried...LMAO

Owning property now and having a family is a bit different than 25 years ago when I wishcasted for my area to get surf. NO MORE, I can fly to Mexico or Coasta Rica

[lrak]

Any ideas why its still doesn't want to come ashore?