Ex Invest 99L in Western Atlantic

[HURAKAN]

[Honeyko]

Eyeball-projected 1930Z center-fix: just a sliver southeast of 22N/62W. WNW heading. SAL still to the east, barging it forward. Excellent southeast moist feed. More CB activity during diurnal minima than present last two days. Upper-trough to W-NW-N appears to be splitting apart into two ULLs, enabling 99L to pass between them into favorable region E of Bahamas.

Overnight diurnal maxima should be interesting.

[KWT]

If it can survive the next 24hrs it will get into better conditions, still uncertain if it will make it that long though IMO.

[SouthFloridawx]

Eyeball-projected 1930Z center-fix: just a sliver southeast of 22N/62W. WNW heading. SAL still to the east, barging it forward. Excellent southeast moist feed. More CB activity during diurnal minima than present last two days. Upper-trough to W-NW-N appears to be splitting apart into two ULLs, enabling 99L to pass between them into favorable region E of Bahamas.
Overnight diurnal maxima should be interesting.

Yes the next couple of days should be interesting for this one...

[stevetampa33614]

Ive been watching hurricanes for quiet awhile. Im a bit confused and skeptical. How does the Sahara Air Layer 'push' a system a certain direction. I dont recall that ever happening anywhere, so Im somewhat skeptical

[SapphireSea]

I don't think SAL pushes any storms anywhere. It can inhibit developing storms and thus keep them steered by lower level flow, as opposed to a stronger system seeking higher level steering. The SAL's travel direction is based on low level winds, and this it can look like it's pushing a weak system. There is nothing really to it.

[Honeyko]

I don't think SAL pushes any storms anywhere.

Sure it can. Imagine it's analogous to a cold mass of air diving down the Great Plains: It'll affect the low-level currents of the warm air masses around it. To the SAL's south, surface westerlies develop, and to its west, southeasterlies.

[HURAKAN]

It may be shear-induced, but today is the first day in many days that convection is present throughout the day.

[kpost]

It's like the little train that could.
Could anybody please answer my question from page 37 about the super warm waters of the Bahamas.
Thanks

[stevetampa33614]

Well dolly limped across the atlantic like this. Now its over the bahama's with no recurve at all. So ya, gonna have to watch it now. Its bears some watching but I dont give a good chance the way its looking right now.

Im watching this more than Edouard, which is being way over hyped imo at this stage in development. Explosive development doesnt happen in early august ; its a slowed either strengthen or weaken type of thing.

[stevetampa33614]

I don't think SAL pushes any storms anywhere. It can inhibit developing storms and thus keep them steered by lower level flow, as opposed to a stronger system seeking higher level steering. The SAL's travel direction is based on low level winds, and this it can look like it's pushing a weak system. There is nothing really to it.

See thats what im thinking. I just wanted a clarification. All these posters kept insisting it was.

[stevetampa33614]

i apoligize it is not over the bahamas.

[cpdaman]

you can get rapid development in early august, what would stop a storm with low shear, moist air, over the NW carib. Nothing. less likely okay but can't is false.

anyhow looks like the base of the ULL is down around 21 north 63-65 W and

our friend appears to be approaching 63 or so west
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... cjava.html


, should it gain another half a degree or so it would be in a less shear enviornment by morning

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

with about 10 mph or less , either way by morning it should be in a better enviornment as mid level shear drops off at 64 W.

[Blown Away]

The TAFB shows 99L as a low again in 24 hours, but opens it back up into a wave after that.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... BW_sm3.gif

[fasterdisaster]

I don't see why people suddenly are saying a recurve isn't going to happen. This pathetic excuse for a tropical wave is either going to stay a pathetic wave and then completely die from interaction with the Bahamas or it will develop into some cruddy little 40 mph TS and recurve into Greenland.

[cycloneye]

99L is still getting T numbers from ssd:

04/2345 UTC 21.7N 62.5W T1.0/1.0 99L -- Atlantic Ocean

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

[HURAKAN]

[LSU2001]

Not to compare at all but remember poor little TD10 in 2005. Dissipated then BAM. Developed into costliest cane in US history.
Tim

[Blown Away]

99L is still getting T numbers from ssd:
04/2345 UTC 21.7N 62.5W T1.0/1.0 99L -- Atlantic Ocean
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

Gotta love 99L, no matter what happens to 99L at this point it has been an emotional system to watch.

[Blown Away]

99L is back on a just N of due W track again.

Atlantic Ocean Basin: Imagery

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
04/2345 UTC 21.7N 62.5W T1.0/1.0 99L
04/1745 UTC 28.2N 91.0W T3.0/3.0 EDOUARD
04/1745 UTC 21.6N 61.6W TOO WEAK 99L
04/1145 UTC 20.4N 59.0W TOO WEAK 99L
04/1145 UTC 28.3N 90.1W T2.5/2.5 EDOUARD
04/0545 UTC 19.8N 56.9W T1.0/1.0 99L
04/0545 UTC 28.2N 89.7W T2.0/2.0 EDOUARD
03/2345 UTC 28.1N 88.3W T2.0/2.0 EDOUARD
03/2345 UTC 19.4N 53.7W T1.0/1.0 99L
03/1745 UTC 28.4N 87.8W T1.5/1.5 91L
03/1745 UTC 19.4N 52.4W T1.0/1.0 99L
03/1145 UTC 28.2N 86.4W T1.5/1.5 91L
03/1145 UTC 18.7N 50.0W T1.0/1.0 99L