ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[KWT]

Very impressive look to this hurricane now HarlequinBoy, very nice looking eye as well. Just waiting for the next Vis update so we can see what Dolly looks like with the sun out as well.

edit its not coming ashore simply because steering currents are pretty weak, its stil lmoving to the WNW just pretty slowly thats all.

[paintplaye]

I meant this morning, sorry. The eyewall also appears to be more circular now as well.

I'm really worried...LMAO

Owning property now and having a family is a bit different than 25 years ago when I wishcasted for my area to get surf. NO MORE, I can fly to Mexico or Coasta Rica

The Corpus area should be fine. You will get some winds but nothing big enough to be very bad. Still stay safe though.

[Normandy]

But there comes a time when you need to understand the trend....and the NHC understand hurricanes and how they operate, and that is why AFM is so frustrated. When you have a rapidly deepening 967 mb (Look at that pressure again) storm with winds almost high enough to support Cat2 Intensity, just go ahead and upgrade it. There is NO DOUBT this storm will bring Category 2 winds ashore when it makes landfall in a few hours, so why wait?

[ALhurricane]

However, as a scientist, Avila can only go with the data. 80KT seems like a good estimate right now, taking into consideration the dropsonde

Sociological aspects also come into play in public sector forecasting. I would rather be on the high side right now given the rate of deepening observed. We are only a few hours from landfall and people need to know what this is capable of.

[Hyperstorm]

There you go...91 knots just found in the NORTHWEST quadrant! This for sure indicates higher winds than that in the NE quadrant. Expect to find over 100 knots in that quadrant when the plane flies through there in about an hour...

Category 2 at 9:00 am or special advisory to upgrade shortly thereafter...

[paintplaye]

Any ideas why its still doesn't want to come ashore?

Cause it doesn't like land

[mutley]

On the Brownsville radar loop, you can see the very quick deepening of the rain bands on her west side.

[MWatkins]

Yes it is stronger than forecast, but I think the best way to go is to understand the NHC does not have good skill (nor does anyone else) at intensity forecasting. We can strongly send the message that these forecasts are far from certain and everyone should prepare for a stronger hurricane than forecast just in case.

Hopefully cases like these will lead to more research funding...we need to understand intensity changes better. the NHC is doing about as well as they can IMHO,

MW

[stevetampa33614]

a 972mb Cat 1? Oh come on.

[hurricanefloyd5]

a 972mb Cat 1? Oh come on.

I think it's closer to 967-965mb

[stevetampa33614]

.

Hopefully cases like these will lead to more research funding...we need to understand intensity changes better. the NHC is doing about as well as they can IMHO,

MW

Imo agreed.

Also if I were in any position of power, I would find a way to stop these storms from ever happening. Hell the Government was experimenting in the 1950's with all kids of stuff to destroy these storms. You better believe we could do it now.

Too bad politicians are busy buying votes and building bridges to nowhere.

[tailgater]

It should of been 97W by now, WTH? Whats holding it out over the water?

tailgater Post subject: Re: ATL: H Dolly in Western Gulf of MexicoPosted: Tue Jul 22, 2008 9:44 pm


Category 5



Joined: Sun Jul 11, 2004 10:13 pm
Posts: 1401
Location: St. Amant La. Just from watching these slower moving systems over the years, they can be a little stubborn( hesitate) moving inland. But it does look to be moving more westward again.
Is ULL over the big Bend area progged to move out?
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _ls_0.html

[MWatkins]

Often times surface winds will take a little bit to "catch up" to pressure drops. It won't be long before SMRF or a drop will get stronger winds...but not seeing anything supporting winds greater than 80 knots right now.

Wind/pressure relationships are not direct...they are directional.

MW

[HURAKAN]

Dangerous Dolly

"the girl was bad, the girl was dangerous"

[KWT]

Yep 967mbs is really very deep for a category-1 and thus you'd have to expect over the next 2-3hrs winds will really ramp up to try and catch up, I mean thats a mid level cat-2 type pressure there.

Hyperstorm, well yeah you'd think so we will have to see what the next pass shows, the fact that the NW quadrant had higher winds then what was found in the NE quadrant suggests Dolly is now rapidly increasing its top winds to catch up and if thats the case then we should see higher in the NE quadrant I agree.

[Category 5]

Any ideas why its still doesn't want to come ashore?

Because it's not there yet.

[HarlequinBoy]

Scary little bugger.

[hurricanefloyd5]

Dangerous Dolly

"the girl was bad, the girl was dangerous"

What do you mean was!!!!!!!!Don't you mean is!!!!!!!LOL

[stevetampa33614]

Stating you do not believe it will become a major will give people a false sense of security.

Yah, i have a feelng there will be lots to talk about thursday.

[Chacor]

Never saw this ob from Brownsville posted...

KBRO 231206Z 31022G37KT 4SM +RA BR FEW023 BKN032 OVC047 24/23 A2949 RMK AO2 PK WND 31037/1203 P0005