ATL: IKE Discussion

[pablolopez26]

Does anyone know when the watches and warning will be posted? Thanks!

[sealbach]

when does the gulfstream data come out?

[cycloneye]

Does anyone know when the watches and warning will be posted? Thanks!

Hurricane Watches,36 hours,and Hurricane Warnings,24 hours.

[Texas Snowman]

Portastorm,

Among the many other more serious disruptions that Ike appears destined to cause this weekend - like the disruption of people's lives and their homes - such a path will likely bring postponement of the big football game between Texas and Arkansas on Saturday afternoon in Austin.

[HouTXmetro]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-ft.html

I KNOW I'M NOT CRAZY... I See a NE wobble, jog whatever you want to call it!!

[Portastorm]

Portastorm,

Among the many other more serious disruptions that Ike appears destined to cause this weekend - like the disruption of people's lives and their homes - such a path will likely bring postponement of the big football game between Texas and Arkansas on Saturday afternoon in Austin.

Yep. That is what we are hearing here in town. Looks like it'll be re-scheduled for Sept. 27th.

[Sjones]

Can someone post a link to the 3 day cone that shows Tx/La Border please?

[caneman]

I posted the link above.

[Just Joshing You]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-ft.html

I KNOW I'M NOT CRAZY... I See a NE wobble, jog whatever you want to call it!!

I think you're crazy lol that's just the convection moving.

[funster]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-ft.html

I KNOW I'M NOT CRAZY... I See a NE wobble, jog whatever you want to call it!!

It's a ball of convection rotating around inside the storm.

[ROCK]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-ft.html

I KNOW I'M NOT CRAZY... I See a NE wobble, jog whatever you want to call it!!

its consolidating.....if it doesnt correct then this could have implication further north...

[HouTXmetro]

Actually what appeared to be a center made of loop earlier. It was confirmed by the VDM, radar and satelite. Not out the the realm of possibility.

[Steve Cosby]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-ft.html

I KNOW I'M NOT CRAZY... I See a NE wobble, jog whatever you want to call it!!

It's a ball of convection rotating around inside the storm.

it could also be the navigation system on the GOES satellite - wxman57 posted something about this during Gustav - that the satellite causes a jump at times.

[dwg71]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-ft.html

I KNOW I'M NOT CRAZY... I See a NE wobble, jog whatever you want to call it!!

Its the illusion of no westward convection growth and the smaller center rotating around the larger center, it will appear to dive back SW in a few frames if it continues rotating in the same manner.

[Stormcenter]

You guys are going to give yourselves a heart attack wobble watching.

[jasons2k]

From Jeff Lindner:

Very large and dangerous hurricane taking aim at the TX coast.

Preparations to protect life and property need to begin.

Current:

Ike greatly expands in size. Recon reports hurricane force winds now extend outward 80 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds 205 miles from the center. Ike is also starting to intensify with sustained winds of now 90mph. Wind gust this morning of 68mph were recorded along the N Cuba coast some 225 miles away from the center.

Track:

There has been a slightly eastward shift in the track since 400am and the track is now aimed at Seadrift and then NW along the eastern side of San Antonio Bay.

There is still some uncertainty on the final right turn…and it is possible that the track could shift eastward some.

Everyone from Rockport to High Island should be making the same preparations at this time.

Intensity:

Looking at a large high end cat 3 at landfall with 120-125mph sustained winds.

We are facing a very large hurricane with far reaching effects. TS force winds will extend outward up to 225 miles at landfall and hurricane force winds nearly 90 miles.

Impacts:

Large and destructive storm surge will cross the coast near and about 40 miles right of this track

High threat for tornadoes across all of SE TX Friday through Saturday PM.

Matagorda Bay:

Extreme storm surge event of 12-18 feet across the entire Matagorda Bay complex. Surge run-up may exceed 18 feet at the top of Lavaca Bay. Hurricane force winds all areas with sustained winds of 115-125mph across all of Calhoun, into Victoria, Jackson counties. Winds of 80-100mph across W Matagorda County.

Extensive damage is expected across nearly all Calhoun County, southern Jackson County, S Victoria County and W Matagorda County and then inland across Wharton, Colorado, and Lavaca counties.

Matagorda County (east of Matagorda Bay):

Storm surge of 10-14 feet with hurricane force winds across the entire county.

Brazoria and Fort Bend counties:

Storm surge of 7-10 feet. Hurricane force winds from Freeport SW…hurricane force winds inland across SW Fort Bend county, all Wharton, and into Colorado.

Galveston and Harris counties:

Storm surge of 4-8’ with possible higher values on the W side of Galveston Bay. High end TS force winds all areas with gust at or above hurricane force. 50-60mph sustained winds will spread inland across Harris, Waller, Austin, and Montgomery counties.

Rainfall:

Widespread rains of 8-12 inches across our SW counties and then 4-6 inches along and W of I-45.

Actions:

Numerous evacuation orders will be issued today.
Coastal storm surge residents need to secure their property and be ready to leave if told to do so.

[gboudx]

If you want to tear yourself away from the wobble-wars, here's another update from Lidner this morning.

viewtopic.php?f=29&t=103096&p=1821958#p1821958

[Steve]

>>its consolidating.....if it doesnt correct then this could have implication further north...

How much further north, like due SE of Pearland?



Steve

[Txdivermom]

3 day cone now moved up the the Tx-La border - that trough timing may make this LF a nail biter along the TX coast.

And will certainly start getting the full attention of those in LA

All landfalls are nail biters. There are no indications (right now)that Ike
is not going anywhere but where the NHC and the model
consensus says it's going. We are now 3 days out and the
models for the most part have locked into a specific landfall area.
The changes occur after he's made landfall.

And per the NHC themselves, it's plus or minus 200 miles. That's why you have everyone talking and speculating about will it turn a little this way or that. There is NO specific landfall and NHC admits such in their discussion. There wouldn't be a forum if we just said OK, that's what the NHC said and that's it.

[O Town]

Can someone post a link to the 3 day cone that shows Tx/La Border please?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... y#contents